{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZDPT74JVZ1",
  "slug": "kxmidtermmov-nh01d",
  "question": "New Hampshire's 1st District margin of victory",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-house-elections",
    "new-hampshire-1st",
    "margin-of-victory",
    "2026-election",
    "congressional-races"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Democratic margin of victory in New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District House race, closing November 2027. All eight markets are on Kalshi, each pricing a discrete vote-share threshold from 1 point through 22 points. The cross-platform insight is absent here: Kalshi alone structures this event as a ladder of binary strike thresholds against Democratic margin. Kalshi staff determination resolves each contract against certified results from the official New Hampshire election authority.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-FZD9FNN7G8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.901,
    "implied_probability": 0.901
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NKKT4CLFZ5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZDPT74JVZ1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-NH01D-P1",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New Hampshire's 1st District House election be at least 1 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 1+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 1+ pts: Official election authority certifying results in the named geography determines the margin of victory on election day 2026, resolved by Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in New Hampshire's 1st District by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.89,
      "implied_probability": 0.89,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3482.57,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 1,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2024",
        "democrat",
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        "house",
        "margin",
        "nh-1st"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-NH01D-P4",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New Hampshire's 1st District House election be at least 4 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 4+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 4+ pts: Official election authority certifying results in the named geography determines the margin of victory on election day 2026, resolved by Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in New Hampshire's 1st District by 4 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "last_price": 0.901,
      "implied_probability": 0.901,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4328.494100000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BP6QRKM435",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZDPT74JVZ1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-NH01D-P7",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New Hampshire's 1st District House election be at least 7 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 7+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 7+ pts: Official election authority certifying results in the named geography determines the margin of victory on election day 2026, resolved by Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in New Hampshire's 1st District by 7 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.75,
      "implied_probability": 0.75,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1980,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 7,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2024",
        "democrat",
        "hampshire 1st district",
        "house",
        "margin",
        "nh-1st"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2QX7VS5ZY3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZDPT74JVZ1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-NH01D-P10",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New Hampshire's 1st District House election be at least 10 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 10+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 10+ pts: Official election authority certifying results in the named geography determines the margin of victory on election day 2026, resolved by Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in New Hampshire's 1st District by 10 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
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            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.63,
      "implied_probability": 0.63,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2717.4735,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "threshold": 10,
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      "tags": [
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        "democrat",
        "hampshire 1st district",
        "house",
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D53Q2TMD77",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZDPT74JVZ1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-NH01D-P13",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New Hampshire's 1st District House election be at least 13 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 13+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 13+ pts: Official election authority certifying results in the named geography determines the margin of victory on election day 2026, resolved by Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in New Hampshire's 1st District by 13 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
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        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.4,
      "implied_probability": 0.4,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1469.5720000000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 13,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "democrat",
        "hampshire 1st district",
        "house",
        "margin",
        "nh-1st"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YS65NP1HX9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZDPT74JVZ1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-NH01D-P16",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New Hampshire's 1st District House election be at least 16 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 16+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 16+ pts: Official election authority certifying results in the named geography determines the margin of victory on election day 2026, resolved by Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in New Hampshire's 1st District by 16 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
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            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.32,
      "implied_probability": 0.32,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 752,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 16,
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      "tags": [
        "2024",
        "democrat",
        "hampshire 1st district",
        "house",
        "margin",
        "nh-1st"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BR8BZ1R2P8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZDPT74JVZ1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-NH01D-P19",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New Hampshire's 1st District House election be at least 19 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 19+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 19+ pts: Official election authority certifying results in the named geography determines the margin of victory on election day 2026, resolved by Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in New Hampshire's 1st District by 19 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.13,
      "implied_probability": 0.13,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 32.11,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 19,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2024",
        "democrat",
        "hampshire 1st district",
        "house",
        "margin",
        "nh-1st"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FX8YQMHJK7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZDPT74JVZ1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-NH01D-P22",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New Hampshire's 1st District House election be at least 22 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 22+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 22+ pts: Official election authority certifying results in the named geography determines the margin of victory on election day 2026, resolved by Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in New Hampshire's 1st District by 22 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.065,
      "implied_probability": 0.065,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4.875,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 22,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2024",
        "democrat",
        "hampshire 1st district",
        "house",
        "margin",
        "nh-1st"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-ZDPT74JVZ1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}