{
  "_notice": {
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    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-RL4DPXZ231",
  "slug": "kxmidtermmov-oh13d",
  "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in Ohio's 13th District House election be at least 2 percentage points?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-house-elections",
    "ohio-politics",
    "election-margins",
    "2027-elections",
    "congressional-races"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Democratic margin of victory in Ohio's 13th Congressional District House election, closing November 3, 2027. Kalshi structures the event as a ladder of nine strike thresholds, ranging from 2 to 26 percentage points. Each tier is a discrete binary: did the margin meet or exceed that specific threshold. Resolution relies on Kalshi staff determination using certified results from the official Ohio election authority.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-952KP02668",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-952KP02668",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RL4DPXZ231",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-OH13D-P2",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Ohio's 13th District House election be at least 2 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 2+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 2+ pts: Official election authority certifying results in the referenced geography determines margin of victory for the named candidate's party in the specified House race by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Ohio's 13th District by 2 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
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      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.77,
      "implied_probability": 0.77,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2714.3193,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 2,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "election",
        "house",
        "ohio",
        "ohio 13th district"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
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          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RL4DPXZ231",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-OH13D-P5",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Ohio's 13th District House election be at least 5 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 5+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 5+ pts: Official election authority certifying results in the referenced geography determines margin of victory for the named candidate's party in the specified House race by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Ohio's 13th District by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
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            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": 0.78,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2373.54,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "threshold": 5,
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      "tags": [
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        "election",
        "house",
        "ohio",
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MS8TBVX1G5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RL4DPXZ231",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-OH13D-P8",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Ohio's 13th District House election be at least 8 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 8+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 8+ pts: Official election authority certifying results in the referenced geography determines margin of victory for the named candidate's party in the specified House race by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Ohio's 13th District by 8 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
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        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.7,
      "implied_probability": 0.7,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2743.6009999999997,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 8,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2024",
        "election",
        "house",
        "ohio",
        "ohio 13th district"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QHKYRBBK58",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RL4DPXZ231",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-OH13D-P11",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Ohio's 13th District House election be at least 11 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 11+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 11+ pts: Official election authority certifying results in the referenced geography determines margin of victory for the named candidate's party in the specified House race by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Ohio's 13th District by 11 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
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        "score": 80,
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.66,
      "implied_probability": 0.66,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1943.0994000000003,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "threshold": 11,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "election",
        "house",
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        "ohio 13th district"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WCCG9ZKP00",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RL4DPXZ231",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-OH13D-P14",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Ohio's 13th District House election be at least 14 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 14+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 14+ pts: Official election authority certifying results in the referenced geography determines margin of victory for the named candidate's party in the specified House race by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Ohio's 13th District by 14 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
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            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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        "score": 80,
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.43,
      "implied_probability": 0.43,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0.731,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 14,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
        "2024",
        "election",
        "house",
        "ohio",
        "ohio 13th district"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
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        }
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-W4PX9TZWQ3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RL4DPXZ231",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-OH13D-P17",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Ohio's 13th District House election be at least 17 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 17+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 17+ pts: Official election authority certifying results in the referenced geography determines margin of victory for the named candidate's party in the specified House race by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Ohio's 13th District by 17 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
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          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 17,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
        "2024",
        "election",
        "house",
        "ohio",
        "ohio 13th district"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RCS3B91W42",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RL4DPXZ231",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-OH13D-P20",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Ohio's 13th District House election be at least 20 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 20+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 20+ pts: Official election authority certifying results in the referenced geography determines margin of victory for the named candidate's party in the specified House race by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Ohio's 13th District by 20 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
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      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Ohio's 13th District House election be at least 23 percentage points?",
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