{
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    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-98TTCLWRD8",
  "slug": "kxmidtermmov-or03d",
  "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in Oregon's 3rd District House election be at least 38 percentage points?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-house-elections",
    "oregon-3rd-district",
    "election-margin",
    "2026-elections",
    "congressional-races"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Democratic margin of victory in Oregon's 3rd Congressional District House race, closing November 3, 2027. Kalshi structures the event as a ladder of binary strike thresholds, from 38 points up to 62 points in 3-point increments. Each tier resolves via Kalshi staff determination, referencing Oregon's election authority certification. The implied distribution of margin is read across the ladder, not from a single binary outcome.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-LHG9Y36486",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.93,
    "implied_probability": 0.93
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LHG9Y36486",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-98TTCLWRD8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-OR03D-P38",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Oregon's 3rd District House election be at least 38 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 38+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 38+ pts: Oregon's election authority certifies the margin of victory in the named House race by November 3, 2027, determining whether it meets or exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Oregon's 3rd District by 38 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
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        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.93,
      "implied_probability": 0.93,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4848.09,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 38,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2024",
        "election",
        "house",
        "margin",
        "oregon",
        "oregon 3rd district"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
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          "bucket": null,
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DM8GQGJCK3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-98TTCLWRD8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-OR03D-P41",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Oregon's 3rd District House election be at least 41 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 41+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 41+ pts: Oregon's election authority certifies the margin of victory in the named House race by November 3, 2027, determining whether it meets or exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Oregon's 3rd District by 41 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
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            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 41,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "house",
        "margin",
        "oregon",
        "oregon 3rd district"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YZR3MLDGW5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-98TTCLWRD8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-OR03D-P44",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Oregon's 3rd District House election be at least 44 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 44+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 44+ pts: Oregon's election authority certifies the margin of victory in the named House race by November 3, 2027, determining whether it meets or exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Oregon's 3rd District by 44 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
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        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 44,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2024",
        "election",
        "house",
        "margin",
        "oregon",
        "oregon 3rd district"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-69VC6WBKH7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-98TTCLWRD8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-OR03D-P47",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Oregon's 3rd District House election be at least 47 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 47+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 47+ pts: Oregon's election authority certifies the margin of victory in the named House race by November 3, 2027, determining whether it meets or exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Oregon's 3rd District by 47 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 47,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2024",
        "election",
        "house",
        "margin",
        "oregon",
        "oregon 3rd district"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XP3KLH6TD5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-98TTCLWRD8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-OR03D-P50",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Oregon's 3rd District House election be at least 50 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 50+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 50+ pts: Oregon's election authority certifies the margin of victory in the named House race by November 3, 2027, determining whether it meets or exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Oregon's 3rd District by 50 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
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        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 50,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2024",
        "election",
        "house",
        "margin",
        "oregon",
        "oregon 3rd district"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "status": "not_eligible",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-71VGMZNS90",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-98TTCLWRD8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-OR03D-P53",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Oregon's 3rd District House election be at least 53 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 53+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 53+ pts: Oregon's election authority certifies the margin of victory in the named House race by November 3, 2027, determining whether it meets or exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Oregon's 3rd District by 53 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.45,
      "implied_probability": 0.45,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0.07650000000000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 53,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2024",
        "election",
        "house",
        "margin",
        "oregon",
        "oregon 3rd district"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-G8TLXV5HW6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-98TTCLWRD8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-OR03D-P56",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Oregon's 3rd District House election be at least 56 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 56+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 56+ pts: Oregon's election authority certifies the margin of victory in the named House race by November 3, 2027, determining whether it meets or exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Oregon's 3rd District by 56 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
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      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Oregon's 3rd District House election be at least 59 percentage points?",
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