{
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    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-XS8332JBB4",
  "slug": "kxmidtermmov-txsenpkpax",
  "question": "Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate primary election in Texas be at least 12 percentage points?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "texas-primary",
    "republican-primary",
    "margin-of-victory",
    "ken-paxton",
    "2027-election"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Ken Paxton's margin of victory in the 2027 Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary. Kalshi structures the event as a ladder of strike thresholds, from 3 points through 36 points, each pricing a discrete yes/no at a given margin level. Together, the strikes form an implied probability distribution over Paxton's final margin. Resolution relies on Kalshi staff determination using Texas Secretary of State certified results.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-Y0LMH70660",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.999
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-135G3CHJV4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XS8332JBB4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENPKPAX-P3",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate primary election in Texas be at least 3 percentage points?",
      "description": "Ken Paxton, 3+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Ken Paxton, 3+ pts: The Texas Secretary of State's certified official election results for the referenced primary election, reported by November 3, 2026, determine whether the named candidate's margin of victory meets the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Ken Paxton wins the 2026 U.S. Senate primary election in Texas by 3 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Ken Paxton minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ken Paxton if Ken Paxton wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Ken Paxton loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Ken Paxton runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Ken Paxton will be summed.\n\nIf Ken Paxton wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Ken Paxton loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Ken Paxton ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Ken Paxton is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "volume_total_usd": 10956.07,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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        "margin",
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      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate primary election in Texas be at least 6 percentage points?",
      "description": "Ken Paxton, 6+ pts",
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      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
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      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If Ken Paxton wins the 2026 U.S. Senate primary election in Texas by 6 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Ken Paxton minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ken Paxton if Ken Paxton wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Ken Paxton loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Ken Paxton runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Ken Paxton will be summed.\n\nIf Ken Paxton wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Ken Paxton loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Ken Paxton ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Ken Paxton is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-13PKL04J88",
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENPKPAX-P9",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate primary election in Texas be at least 9 percentage points?",
      "description": "Ken Paxton, 9+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Ken Paxton, 9+ pts: The Texas Secretary of State's certified official election results for the referenced primary election, reported by November 3, 2026, determine whether the named candidate's margin of victory meets the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Ken Paxton wins the 2026 U.S. Senate primary election in Texas by 9 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Ken Paxton minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ken Paxton if Ken Paxton wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Ken Paxton loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Ken Paxton runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Ken Paxton will be summed.\n\nIf Ken Paxton wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Ken Paxton loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Ken Paxton ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Ken Paxton is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "implied_probability": 0.995,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 13103.12,
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      "tags": [
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        "ken paxton",
        "margin",
        "republican",
        "senate primary",
        "texas"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Y0LMH70660",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XS8332JBB4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENPKPAX-P12",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate primary election in Texas be at least 12 percentage points?",
      "description": "Ken Paxton, 12+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Ken Paxton, 12+ pts: The Texas Secretary of State's certified official election results for the referenced primary election, reported by November 3, 2026, determine whether the named candidate's margin of victory meets the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Ken Paxton wins the 2026 U.S. Senate primary election in Texas by 12 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Ken Paxton minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ken Paxton if Ken Paxton wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Ken Paxton loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Ken Paxton runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Ken Paxton will be summed.\n\nIf Ken Paxton wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Ken Paxton loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Ken Paxton ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Ken Paxton is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
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      "volume_total_usd": 25061.55,
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KB1WKGPFY9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XS8332JBB4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENPKPAX-P15",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate primary election in Texas be at least 15 percentage points?",
      "description": "Ken Paxton, 15+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Ken Paxton, 15+ pts: The Texas Secretary of State's certified official election results for the referenced primary election, reported by November 3, 2026, determine whether the named candidate's margin of victory meets the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Ken Paxton wins the 2026 U.S. Senate primary election in Texas by 15 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Ken Paxton minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ken Paxton if Ken Paxton wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Ken Paxton loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Ken Paxton runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Ken Paxton will be summed.\n\nIf Ken Paxton wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Ken Paxton loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Ken Paxton ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Ken Paxton is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
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      "tags": [
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        "ken paxton",
        "margin",
        "republican",
        "senate primary",
        "texas"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1D0CVG35Q4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XS8332JBB4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENPKPAX-P18",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate primary election in Texas be at least 18 percentage points?",
      "description": "Ken Paxton, 18+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Ken Paxton, 18+ pts: The Texas Secretary of State's certified official election results for the referenced primary election, reported by November 3, 2026, determine whether the named candidate's margin of victory meets the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Ken Paxton wins the 2026 U.S. Senate primary election in Texas by 18 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Ken Paxton minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ken Paxton if Ken Paxton wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Ken Paxton loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Ken Paxton runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Ken Paxton will be summed.\n\nIf Ken Paxton wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Ken Paxton loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Ken Paxton ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Ken Paxton is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KCPZJWK8Z7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XS8332JBB4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENPKPAX-P21",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate primary election in Texas be at least 21 percentage points?",
      "description": "Ken Paxton, 21+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Ken Paxton, 21+ pts: The Texas Secretary of State's certified official election results for the referenced primary election, reported by November 3, 2026, determine whether the named candidate's margin of victory meets the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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