{
  "_notice": {
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    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-2R0YMZRC29",
  "slug": "kxmidtermmov-txsenr",
  "question": "Will the Texas Senate election margin of victory be within a specified range?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "texas-senate-2026",
    "us-elections",
    "margin-of-victory",
    "election-outcomes",
    "electoral-metrics"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Republican margin of victory in the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election. Kalshi structures the event as seven cumulative strike thresholds: 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, and 13 percentage points. Each successive contract prices the probability that the Republican margin clears a higher floor. Kalshi staff determination governs resolution, referencing certified results from Texas election authorities.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-LLVSJD0015",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.44,
    "implied_probability": 0.44
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XRF5R8N3L1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2R0YMZRC29",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENR-P1",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 1 percentage points?",
      "description": "Ken Paxton, 1+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Ken Paxton, 1+ pts: Official election authority responsible for certifying results in the named geography will determine the margin of victory percentage by 2027-11-03, with Kalshi staff verifying.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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        "score": 80,
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.58,
      "implied_probability": 0.58,
      "volume_24h_usd": 14.499999999999998,
      "volume_total_usd": 4920.6736,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 1,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "election",
        "margin",
        "republican",
        "senate",
        "texas",
        "texas senate republican"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "screen_version": "v1",
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          "bucket": null,
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2R0YMZRC29",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENR-P3",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 3 percentage points?",
      "description": "Ken Paxton, 3+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Ken Paxton, 3+ pts: Official election authority responsible for certifying results in the named geography will determine the margin of victory percentage by 2027-11-03, with Kalshi staff verifying.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 3 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "implied_probability": 0.44,
      "volume_24h_usd": 808.4692,
      "volume_total_usd": 18078.0072,
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      "tags": [
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        "election",
        "margin",
        "republican",
        "senate",
        "texas",
        "texas senate republican"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-92ZS8YJWW2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2R0YMZRC29",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENR-P5",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 5 percentage points?",
      "description": "Ken Paxton, 5+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Ken Paxton, 5+ pts: Official election authority responsible for certifying results in the named geography will determine the margin of victory percentage by 2027-11-03, with Kalshi staff verifying.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "sources": [
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            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.29,
      "implied_probability": 0.29,
      "volume_24h_usd": 4.031,
      "volume_total_usd": 5054.9639,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 5,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "election",
        "margin",
        "republican",
        "senate",
        "texas",
        "texas senate republican"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-C5J1QZ9SF1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2R0YMZRC29",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENR-P7",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 7 percentage points?",
      "description": "Ken Paxton, 7+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Ken Paxton, 7+ pts: Official election authority responsible for certifying results in the named geography will determine the margin of victory percentage by 2027-11-03, with Kalshi staff verifying.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 7 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.16,
      "implied_probability": 0.16,
      "volume_24h_usd": 43.8688,
      "volume_total_usd": 889.9552000000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 7,
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      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "election",
        "margin",
        "republican",
        "senate",
        "texas",
        "texas senate republican"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0YV0D2XTR5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2R0YMZRC29",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENR-P9",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 9 percentage points?",
      "description": "Ken Paxton, 9+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Ken Paxton, 9+ pts: Official election authority responsible for certifying results in the named geography will determine the margin of victory percentage by 2027-11-03, with Kalshi staff verifying.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 9 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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        "score": 80,
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.099,
      "implied_probability": 0.099,
      "volume_24h_usd": 24.75,
      "volume_total_usd": 282.91824,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 9,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "election",
        "margin",
        "republican",
        "senate",
        "texas",
        "texas senate republican"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DZ1RR53J70",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2R0YMZRC29",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENR-P11",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 11 percentage points?",
      "description": "Ken Paxton, 11+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Ken Paxton, 11+ pts: Official election authority responsible for certifying results in the named geography will determine the margin of victory percentage by 2027-11-03, with Kalshi staff verifying.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 11 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
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            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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      "last_price": 0.049,
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      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "election",
        "margin",
        "republican",
        "senate",
        "texas",
        "texas senate republican"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4Z42991FT7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2R0YMZRC29",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENR-P13",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 13 percentage points?",
      "description": "Ken Paxton, 13+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Ken Paxton, 13+ pts: Official election authority responsible for certifying results in the named geography will determine the margin of victory percentage by 2027-11-03, with Kalshi staff verifying.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 13 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.026,
      "implied_probability": 0.026,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 49.40364,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 13,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "election",
        "margin",
        "republican",
        "senate",
        "texas",
        "texas senate republican"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-2R0YMZRC29",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}