{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-PZRKHSV9B5",
  "slug": "kxmidtermvoteturn-cagov",
  "question": "California gubernatorial election total vote count, November 3, 2027",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      12600000,
      13100000
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 10900000,
        "prob": 84
      },
      {
        "threshold": 11500000,
        "prob": 77
      },
      {
        "threshold": 12000000,
        "prob": 69
      },
      {
        "threshold": 12600000,
        "prob": 54
      },
      {
        "threshold": 13100000,
        "prob": 25
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "california-governor",
    "voter-turnout",
    "2027-election",
    "electoral-participation",
    "us-politics"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track total vote count in California's 2027 gubernatorial general election. Kalshi structures five binary strike thresholds ranging from 10.9 million to 13.1 million total votes cast. Each contract resolves independently via Kalshi staff determination using certified totals from California's election commission. Together the strikes form an implied turnout distribution across a 2.2 million vote range.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-49CGP0SR28",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.25,
    "implied_probability": 0.25
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DQLW6HMS36",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PZRKHSV9B5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-CAGOV-10900000",
      "question": "Will the total vote count for all participants in California Governor General Election be above 10900000?",
      "description": "Above 10.9M",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 10.9M: California's election commission reports final total voter turnout for the referenced general election by November 3, 2026, determining whether the outcome exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total vote count for all participants in California Governor General Election is above 10900000, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. \n\nThe contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.84,
      "implied_probability": 0.84,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 7457.7468,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 10900000,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "california",
        "california governor general",
        "election",
        "governor",
        "turnout",
        "voting"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-L2XV6PGDY6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PZRKHSV9B5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-CAGOV-11500000",
      "question": "Will the total vote count for all participants in California Governor General Election be above 11500000?",
      "description": "Above 11.5M",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 11.5M: California's election commission reports final total voter turnout for the referenced general election by November 3, 2026, determining whether the outcome exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total vote count for all participants in California Governor General Election is above 11500000, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. \n\nThe contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place",
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        "sources": [
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            "name": "the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.76,
      "implied_probability": 0.76,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4017.7552000000005,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 11500000,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "california",
        "california governor general",
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        "governor",
        "turnout",
        "voting"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RY71GJJSF3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PZRKHSV9B5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-CAGOV-12000000",
      "question": "Will the total vote count for all participants in California Governor General Election be above 12000000?",
      "description": "Above 12M",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 12M: California's election commission reports final total voter turnout for the referenced general election by November 3, 2026, determining whether the outcome exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total vote count for all participants in California Governor General Election is above 12000000, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. \n\nThe contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.62,
      "implied_probability": 0.62,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 5714.062599999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 12000000,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "california",
        "california governor general",
        "election",
        "governor",
        "turnout",
        "voting"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SX2DYBYJX8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PZRKHSV9B5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-CAGOV-12600000",
      "question": "Will the total vote count for all participants in California Governor General Election be above 12600000?",
      "description": "Above 12.6M",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 12.6M: California's election commission reports final total voter turnout for the referenced general election by November 3, 2026, determining whether the outcome exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total vote count for all participants in California Governor General Election is above 12600000, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. \n\nThe contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
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        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.47,
      "implied_probability": 0.47,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2632.3900999999996,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 12600000,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "california",
        "california governor general",
        "election",
        "governor",
        "turnout",
        "voting"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-49CGP0SR28",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PZRKHSV9B5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-CAGOV-13100000",
      "question": "Will the total vote count for all participants in California Governor General Election be above 13100000?",
      "description": "Above 13.1M",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 13.1M: California's election commission reports final total voter turnout for the referenced general election by November 3, 2026, determining whether the outcome exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total vote count for all participants in California Governor General Election is above 13100000, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. \n\nThe contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place",
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        "sources": [
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            "name": "the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
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      "volume_total_usd": 2112.5375,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 13100000,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "california",
        "california governor general",
        "election",
        "governor",
        "turnout",
        "voting"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-PZRKHSV9B5",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}