{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZGSTZ50T7",
  "slug": "kxmoa-28jancigs",
  "question": "Altria Group Inc. report billion domestic cigarette shipments in 2026",
  "category": "companies",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      58000000000,
      58500000000
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 54500000000,
        "prob": 96
      },
      {
        "threshold": 55000000000,
        "prob": 89
      },
      {
        "threshold": 55500000000,
        "prob": 82
      },
      {
        "threshold": 56000000000,
        "prob": 80
      },
      {
        "threshold": 56500000000,
        "prob": 78
      },
      {
        "threshold": 57000000000,
        "prob": 74
      },
      {
        "threshold": 57500000000,
        "prob": 72
      },
      {
        "threshold": 58000000000,
        "prob": 56
      },
      {
        "threshold": 58500000000,
        "prob": 40
      },
      {
        "threshold": 59000000000,
        "prob": 34
      },
      {
        "threshold": 59500000000,
        "prob": 19
      },
      {
        "threshold": 60000000000,
        "prob": 10
      },
      {
        "threshold": 60500000000,
        "prob": 3
      },
      {
        "threshold": 61000000000,
        "prob": 6
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "companies",
    "altria",
    "tobacco-shipments",
    "corporate-earnings",
    "us-domestic",
    "2028"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Altria Group's full-year 2026 domestic cigarette shipment volume. Fourteen Kalshi strike thresholds span 54.5 billion to 61 billion units in 500-million-unit increments, each pricing a discrete exceedance level. Together they form an implied probability distribution over the shipment range. Kalshi staff determination draws on Fiscal.ai data; resolution is expected by March 2028.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-GP92V3X1F7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.4,
    "implied_probability": 0.4
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0L3T722RC1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZGSTZ50T7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMOA-28JANCIGS-54500000000.0",
      "question": "Will Altria Group Inc. report Above 54.5 billion domestic cigarette shipments in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 54.5 billion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 54.5 billion: Kalshi staff determination, based on Fiscal.ai data, resolves whether the listed company reports domestic cigarette shipments above the specified threshold in 2026, with deadline March 31, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Altria Group Inc. reports Above 54500000000.0 domestic cigarette shipments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
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          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.96,
      "implied_probability": 0.96,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 10485.100799999998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 54500000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-782F3FF37E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "altria",
        "altria domestic cigarette",
        "cigarettes",
        "shipments"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-41QS69KPW1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZGSTZ50T7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMOA-28JANCIGS-55000000000.0",
      "question": "Will Altria Group Inc. report Above 55 billion domestic cigarette shipments in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 55 billion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 55 billion: Kalshi staff determination, based on Fiscal.ai data, resolves whether the listed company reports domestic cigarette shipments above the specified threshold in 2026, with deadline March 31, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Altria Group Inc. reports Above 55000000000.0 domestic cigarette shipments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
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        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
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          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
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        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
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        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.89,
      "implied_probability": 0.89,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 5496.3819,
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      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 55000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-5A0EFA865A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "altria",
        "altria domestic cigarette",
        "cigarettes",
        "shipments"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
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          "bucket": null,
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-470KWZ1354",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZGSTZ50T7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMOA-28JANCIGS-55500000000.0",
      "question": "Will Altria Group Inc. report Above 55.5 billion domestic cigarette shipments in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 55.5 billion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 55.5 billion: Kalshi staff determination, based on Fiscal.ai data, resolves whether the listed company reports domestic cigarette shipments above the specified threshold in 2026, with deadline March 31, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Altria Group Inc. reports Above 55500000000.0 domestic cigarette shipments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
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          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
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        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.82,
      "implied_probability": 0.82,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3252.12,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 55500000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-C1147F9AEA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "altria",
        "altria domestic cigarette",
        "cigarettes",
        "shipments"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-643HG7RRY4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZGSTZ50T7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMOA-28JANCIGS-56000000000.0",
      "question": "Will Altria Group Inc. report Above 56 billion domestic cigarette shipments in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 56 billion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 56 billion: Kalshi staff determination, based on Fiscal.ai data, resolves whether the listed company reports domestic cigarette shipments above the specified threshold in 2026, with deadline March 31, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Altria Group Inc. reports Above 56000000000.0 domestic cigarette shipments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
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        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
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      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.8,
      "implied_probability": 0.8,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 363.20000000000005,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 56000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-382E8E370C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "altria",
        "altria domestic cigarette",
        "cigarettes",
        "shipments"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-G8TTYPH186",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZGSTZ50T7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMOA-28JANCIGS-56500000000.0",
      "question": "Will Altria Group Inc. report Above 56.5 billion domestic cigarette shipments in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 56.5 billion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 56.5 billion: Kalshi staff determination, based on Fiscal.ai data, resolves whether the listed company reports domestic cigarette shipments above the specified threshold in 2026, with deadline March 31, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Altria Group Inc. reports Above 56500000000.0 domestic cigarette shipments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
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        "source_type": null,
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        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
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      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.78,
      "implied_probability": 0.78,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 524.16,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 56500000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-C984457AD4",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "altria",
        "altria domestic cigarette",
        "cigarettes",
        "shipments"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-86KS5SL833",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZGSTZ50T7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMOA-28JANCIGS-57000000000.0",
      "question": "Will Altria Group Inc. report Above 57 billion domestic cigarette shipments in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 57 billion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 57 billion: Kalshi staff determination, based on Fiscal.ai data, resolves whether the listed company reports domestic cigarette shipments above the specified threshold in 2026, with deadline March 31, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Altria Group Inc. reports Above 57000000000.0 domestic cigarette shipments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
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        ],
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 84,
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.74,
      "implied_probability": 0.74,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2772.04,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 57000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-66C5CFDCF8",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "altria",
        "altria domestic cigarette",
        "cigarettes",
        "shipments"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MG3Y58RR82",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZGSTZ50T7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMOA-28JANCIGS-57500000000.0",
      "question": "Will Altria Group Inc. report Above 57.5 billion domestic cigarette shipments in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 57.5 billion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 57.5 billion: Kalshi staff determination, based on Fiscal.ai data, resolves whether the listed company reports domestic cigarette shipments above the specified threshold in 2026, with deadline March 31, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Altria Group Inc. reports Above 57500000000.0 domestic cigarette shipments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
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        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
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        "grade": "C",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.72,
      "implied_probability": 0.72,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 57500000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-6BCEA8D8D4",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "altria",
        "altria domestic cigarette",
        "cigarettes",
        "shipments"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VYX02YKZ01",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZGSTZ50T7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMOA-28JANCIGS-58000000000.0",
      "question": "Will Altria Group Inc. report Above 58 billion domestic cigarette shipments in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 58 billion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 58 billion: Kalshi staff determination, based on Fiscal.ai data, resolves whether the listed company reports domestic cigarette shipments above the specified threshold in 2026, with deadline March 31, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If Altria Group Inc. reports Above 58000000000.0 domestic cigarette shipments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
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      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.56,
      "implied_probability": 0.56,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 180.11280000000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 58000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-51915DBF0C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "altria",
        "altria domestic cigarette",
        "cigarettes",
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      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GP92V3X1F7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZGSTZ50T7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMOA-28JANCIGS-58500000000.0",
      "question": "Will Altria Group Inc. report Above 58.5 billion domestic cigarette shipments in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 58.5 billion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
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