{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-3RCX5DMZX9",
  "slug": "kxmonsantodurnell-26aug",
  "question": "Will the Supreme Court shield Monsanto from Roundup failure-to-warn lawsuits?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "supreme-court-2026",
    "monsanto-roundup",
    "product-liability",
    "preemption-doctrine",
    "tort-law"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This event tracks whether the Supreme Court rules for Monsanto in Monsanto Company v. Durnell, a federal preemption case involving state failure-to-warn claims against Roundup. Only Kalshi lists this market, pricing a binary outcome on the Court's judgment. Resolution depends on the official opinion published on supremecourt.gov, determined by Kalshi staff. The market closes August 1, 2026, ahead of which a ruling is expected.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-FY2WRJ9D89",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.79,
    "implied_probability": 0.79
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FY2WRJ9D89",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3RCX5DMZX9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMONSANTODURNELL-26AUG",
      "question": "Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Monsanto Company in Monsanto Company v. Durnell",
      "description": "Before 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "The Supreme Court's official opinion and judgment in Monsanto Company v. Durnell, published on supremecourt.gov, determines the ruling.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Supreme Court, in Monsanto Company v. Durnell, rules that FIFRA preempts label-based failure-to-warn claims where EPA has not required the warning, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has issued a decision in Monsanto Company v. Durnell holding that the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act preempts state-law, label-based failure-to-warn claims where EPA has not required the warning, after Issuance and before August 1, 2026. The market resolves to No if the Supreme Court holds that such claims are not preempted. If the case is dismissed, settled, dismissed as improvidently granted, or otherwise disposed of without a merits decision on whether FIFRA preempts such label-based failure-to-warn claims before August 1, 2026, the market also resolves to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Supreme Court",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.supremecourt.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Supreme Court",
            "url": "https://www.supremecourt.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Supreme Court of the United States",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Supreme Court",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.79,
      "implied_probability": 0.79,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.71,
      "volume_total_usd": 6884.72,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "failure-to-warn",
        "litigation",
        "monsanto",
        "monsanto durnell supreme",
        "roundup",
        "supreme court"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-3RCX5DMZX9",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}