{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-03SWB7KVP5",
  "slug": "kxmoprimary-04d26",
  "question": "Will there be a Democratic nominee for Missouri's 4th congressional district by the 2026 election?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-election-2026",
    "democratic-primary",
    "missouri-politics",
    "house-nominee",
    "congressional-race"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Democratic primary outcome for Missouri's 4th Congressional District. Seven candidate-specific binary contracts on Kalshi each resolve YES if the named individual wins the Democratic nomination. All seven resolve via Kalshi staff determination against the same primary outcome, making them mutually exclusive. Resolution is set for November 3, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-VFMHTCW589",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.72,
    "implied_probability": 0.72
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FDWRF0RJS1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-03SWB7KVP5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMOPRIMARY-04D26-JHER",
      "question": "Will Jordan Herrera be the Democratic nominee for MO-04?",
      "description": "Jordan Herrera",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Jordan Herrera: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named candidate becomes the Democratic nominee for the referenced U.S. House seat, resolved by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Jordan Herrera wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 MO-04 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Republican Party",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gop.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Republican Party",
            "url": "https://gop.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Democratic Party",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Democratic Party",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.16,
      "implied_probability": 0.16,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 363.4656,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2024",
        "democratic nominee",
        "jordan herrera",
        "mo-04"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KP47YBXDN8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-03SWB7KVP5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMOPRIMARY-04D26-WRUS",
      "question": "Will Wayne Russell be the Democratic nominee for MO-04?",
      "description": "Wayne Russell",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Wayne Russell: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named candidate becomes the Democratic nominee for the referenced U.S. House seat, resolved by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Wayne Russell wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 MO-04 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Republican Party",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gop.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Republican Party",
            "url": "https://gop.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Democratic Party",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Democratic Party",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 42.92,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2024",
        "democratic nominee",
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        "wayne russell"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VFMHTCW589",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-03SWB7KVP5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMOPRIMARY-04D26-H3RD",
      "question": "Will Hartzell Gray 3rd be the Democratic nominee for MO-04?",
      "description": "Hartzell Gray 3rd",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Hartzell Gray 3rd: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named candidate becomes the Democratic nominee for the referenced U.S. House seat, resolved by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Hartzell Gray 3rd wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 MO-04 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Republican Party",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gop.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Republican Party",
            "url": "https://gop.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Democratic Party",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Democratic Party",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.72,
      "implied_probability": 0.72,
      "volume_24h_usd": 340.1856,
      "volume_total_usd": 9159.9192,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2024",
        "democratic nominee",
        "hartzell gray 3rd",
        "mo-04"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HK8S86JBQ6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-03SWB7KVP5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMOPRIMARY-04D26-GRIC",
      "question": "Will G Rick be the Democratic nominee for MO-04?",
      "description": "G Rick",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "G Rick: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named candidate becomes the Democratic nominee for the referenced U.S. House seat, resolved by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If G Rick wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 MO-04 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Republican Party",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gop.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Republican Party",
            "url": "https://gop.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Democratic Party",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Democratic Party",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 276.0065,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2024",
        "democratic nominee",
        "mo-04",
        "rick"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PY8RQCXTY6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-03SWB7KVP5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMOPRIMARY-04D26-JCAS",
      "question": "Will Jeanette Cass be the Democratic nominee for MO-04?",
      "description": "Jeanette Cass",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Jeanette Cass: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named candidate becomes the Democratic nominee for the referenced U.S. House seat, resolved by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Jeanette Cass wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 MO-04 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Republican Party",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gop.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Republican Party",
            "url": "https://gop.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Democratic Party",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Democratic Party",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.06,
      "implied_probability": 0.06,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 392.7,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2024",
        "democratic nominee",
        "jeanette cass",
        "mo-04"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M9GQ3HT6K0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-03SWB7KVP5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMOPRIMARY-04D26-AROG",
      "question": "Will Ashleigh Rogers be the Democratic nominee for MO-04?",
      "description": "Ashleigh Rogers",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Ashleigh Rogers: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named candidate becomes the Democratic nominee for the referenced U.S. House seat, resolved by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Ashleigh Rogers wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 MO-04 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Republican Party",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gop.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Republican Party",
            "url": "https://gop.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Democratic Party",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Democratic Party",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.04,
      "implied_probability": 0.04,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 265.56,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "ashleigh rogers",
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        "mo-04"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NNJKWYBY20",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-03SWB7KVP5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMOPRIMARY-04D26-RMIL",
      "question": "Will Randy Miller be the Democratic nominee for MO-04?",
      "description": "Randy Miller",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Randy Miller: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named candidate becomes the Democratic nominee for the referenced U.S. House seat, resolved by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Randy Miller wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 MO-04 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Republican Party",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gop.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Republican Party",
            "url": "https://gop.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Democratic Party",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Democratic Party",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 114.16,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2024",
        "democratic nominee",
        "mo-04",
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-03SWB7KVP5",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}