{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-FRG4Q8TZ54",
  "slug": "kxmoprimary-04r26",
  "question": "Will the Republican nominee for Missouri's 4th congressional district be determined by the 2026 election?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-house-2026",
    "missouri-politics",
    "republican-primary",
    "nomination",
    "electoral-prediction"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Republican primary nominee for Missouri's 4th Congressional District, resolving November 3, 2026. Three candidate-specific binary contracts cover Mark Alford, Heather Shelton, and Scott Vincent Vera. All three resolve via Kalshi staff determination against the party's official nominee designation. Only one contract can settle affirmative; the set functions as a mutually exclusive exhaustive basket.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-XGS2H9TFL8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.99,
    "implied_probability": 0.99
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XGS2H9TFL8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FRG4Q8TZ54",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMOPRIMARY-04R26-MALF",
      "question": "Will Mark Alford be the Republican nominee for MO-04?",
      "description": "Mark Alford",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Mark Alford: The Republican Party's official nominee designation for the referenced office, confirmed by Kalshi staff determination by November 3, 2026, resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Mark Alford wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 MO-04 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Republican Party",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gop.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Republican Party",
            "url": "https://gop.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Democratic Party",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Republican Party",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 7240.2066,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "mark alford",
        "mo-04",
        "nominee",
        "republican"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QDB3DMMKB4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FRG4Q8TZ54",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMOPRIMARY-04R26-HSHE",
      "question": "Will Heather Shelton be the Republican nominee for MO-04?",
      "description": "Heather Shelton",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Heather Shelton: The Republican Party's official nominee designation for the referenced office, confirmed by Kalshi staff determination by November 3, 2026, resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Heather Shelton wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 MO-04 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Republican Party",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gop.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Republican Party",
            "url": "https://gop.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Democratic Party",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Republican Party",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.07,
      "implied_probability": 0.07,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 19.0596,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "heather shelton",
        "mo-04",
        "nominee",
        "republican"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XFCGQ6V9L7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FRG4Q8TZ54",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMOPRIMARY-04R26-SVER",
      "question": "Will Scott Vincent Vera be the Republican nominee for MO-04?",
      "description": "Scott Vincent Vera",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Scott Vincent Vera: The Republican Party's official nominee designation for the referenced office, confirmed by Kalshi staff determination by November 3, 2026, resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Scott Vincent Vera wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 MO-04 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Republican Party",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gop.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Republican Party",
            "url": "https://gop.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Democratic Party",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Republican Party",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.03,
      "implied_probability": 0.03,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 8.16,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "mo-04",
        "nominee",
        "republican",
        "scott vincent vera"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-FRG4Q8TZ54",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}