{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-VWL3JC3XP3",
  "slug": "kxmortgagerate-26dec",
  "question": "Will the 30-year mortgage rate reach 7% or higher this year?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "mortgage-rates",
    "interest-rates",
    "us-housing",
    "economic-indicators",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the peak 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached during 2026. Kalshi structures the event as five discrete strike thresholds, from 6.6% to 7.0%, each resolving YES if the rate breaches that level at any point in the year. The implied probability spread across strikes lets traders construct a cumulative distribution of the rate's upper bound. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey is the authoritative data source; resolution is by Kalshi staff determination.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-RZ5KXXFZC5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.99,
    "implied_probability": 0.99,
    "as_of": "2026-08-05T10:00:55.934Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RZ5KXXFZC5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VWL3JC3XP3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMORTGAGERATE-26DEC-T6.6",
      "question": "How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year?",
      "description": "Above 6.6%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 6.6%: The 30-year mortgage rate will resolve based on Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey data as of the resolution deadline, with Kalshi staff determination of whether the named threshold is exceeded by April 2, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T13:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-02T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the 30-Yr FRM is above 6.6% in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFreddie Mac U.S. weekly averages as of the Primary Mortgage Market Survey is the source agency.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Freddie Mac U.S. weekly averages as of the Primary Mortgage Market Survey",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Freddie Mac U.S. weekly averages as of the Primary Mortgage Market Survey",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-05T10:00:55.934Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 11970.8424,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 6.6,
      "question_id": "CMX-7538E4C534",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "30 year mortgage",
        "housing",
        "mortgage",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "financial_indicators",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GL4FSMP8K8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VWL3JC3XP3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMORTGAGERATE-26DEC-T6.7",
      "question": "How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year?",
      "description": "Above 6.7%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 6.7%: The 30-year mortgage rate will resolve based on Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey data as of the resolution deadline, with Kalshi staff determination of whether the named threshold is exceeded by April 2, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T13:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-02T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the 30-Yr FRM is above 6.7% in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFreddie Mac U.S. weekly averages as of the Primary Mortgage Market Survey is the source agency.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Freddie Mac U.S. weekly averages as of the Primary Mortgage Market Survey",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Freddie Mac U.S. weekly averages as of the Primary Mortgage Market Survey",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 583.9019999999999,
      "volume_total_usd": 7529.415300000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 6.7,
      "question_id": "CMX-70A57C8682",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "30 year mortgage",
        "housing",
        "mortgage",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "financial_indicators",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QJNB4T5WF2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VWL3JC3XP3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMORTGAGERATE-26DEC-T6.8",
      "question": "How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year?",
      "description": "Above 6.8%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 6.8%: The 30-year mortgage rate will resolve based on Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey data as of the resolution deadline, with Kalshi staff determination of whether the named threshold is exceeded by April 2, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T13:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-02T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the 30-Yr FRM is above 6.8% in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFreddie Mac U.S. weekly averages as of the Primary Mortgage Market Survey is the source agency.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Freddie Mac U.S. weekly averages as of the Primary Mortgage Market Survey",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Freddie Mac U.S. weekly averages as of the Primary Mortgage Market Survey",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.75,
      "implied_probability": 0.75,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3821.34,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 6.8,
      "question_id": "CMX-C9BC240AE7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "30 year mortgage",
        "housing",
        "mortgage",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "financial_indicators",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-B2GHY193G7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VWL3JC3XP3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMORTGAGERATE-26DEC-T6.9",
      "question": "How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year?",
      "description": "Above 6.9%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 6.9%: The 30-year mortgage rate will resolve based on Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey data as of the resolution deadline, with Kalshi staff determination of whether the named threshold is exceeded by April 2, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T13:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-02T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the 30-Yr FRM is above 6.9% in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFreddie Mac U.S. weekly averages as of the Primary Mortgage Market Survey is the source agency.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Freddie Mac U.S. weekly averages as of the Primary Mortgage Market Survey",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Freddie Mac U.S. weekly averages as of the Primary Mortgage Market Survey",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.64,
      "implied_probability": 0.64,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 19.5072,
      "volume_total_usd": 3201.6896,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 6.9,
      "question_id": "CMX-2446D5C807",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "30 year mortgage",
        "housing",
        "mortgage",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "financial_indicators",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9VL8DW4L68",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VWL3JC3XP3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMORTGAGERATE-26DEC-T7.0",
      "question": "How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year?",
      "description": "Above 7.0%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 7.0%: The 30-year mortgage rate will resolve based on Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey data as of the resolution deadline, with Kalshi staff determination of whether the named threshold is exceeded by April 2, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T13:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-02T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the 30-Yr FRM is above 7.0% in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFreddie Mac U.S. weekly averages as of the Primary Mortgage Market Survey is the source agency.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Freddie Mac U.S. weekly averages as of the Primary Mortgage Market Survey",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Freddie Mac U.S. weekly averages as of the Primary Mortgage Market Survey",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.38,
      "implied_probability": 0.38,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3752.4316,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 7,
      "question_id": "CMX-E89B036CE5",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "30 year mortgage",
        "housing",
        "mortgage",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "financial_indicators",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P9YSYMKM29",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VWL3JC3XP3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMORTGAGERATE-26DEC-T6.5",
      "question": "How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year?",
      "description": "Above 6.5%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 6.5%: Kalshi staff determination based on the 30-year fixed mortgage rate from the Primary Mortgage Market Survey resolves this market on April 2, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-05-21T19:20:09Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-02T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the 30-Yr FRM is above 6.5% in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFreddie Mac U.S. weekly averages as of the Primary Mortgage Market Survey is the source agency.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Freddie Mac U.S. weekly averages as of the Primary Mortgage Market Survey",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Freddie Mac U.S. weekly averages as of the Primary Mortgage Market Survey",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.999,
      "implied_probability": 0.999,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 27899.82,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 6.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-0566DA9FE5",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "30 year mortgage",
        "housing",
        "mortgage",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "financial_indicators",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-L2GLRT35N8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VWL3JC3XP3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMORTGAGERATE-26DEC-T6.2",
      "question": "How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year?",
      "description": "Above 6.2%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Freddie Mac publishes the Primary Mortgage Market Survey weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate through December 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-03-31T17:22:29Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the 30-Yr FRM is above 6.2% in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFreddie Mac U.S. weekly averages as of the Primary Mortgage Market Survey is the source agency.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.96,
      "implied_probability": 0.96,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 10345.92,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 6.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-191B229060",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "30 year mortgage",
        "mortgage",
        "rates",
        "usahomeloans"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "financial_indicators",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1J7L18S386",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VWL3JC3XP3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMORTGAGERATE-26DEC-T6.3",
      "question": "How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year?",
      "description": "Above 6.3%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Freddie Mac publishes the Primary Mortgage Market Survey weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate through December 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-03-31T17:22:38Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the 30-Yr FRM is above 6.3% in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFreddie Mac U.S. weekly averages as of the Primary Mortgage Market Survey is the source agency.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-VWL3JC3XP3",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}