{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-GFR52HJHB3",
  "slug": "kxmovgancsen-26nov03",
  "question": "Will the Georgia Senate race have a larger margin of victory than the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-senate-2026",
    "georgia-politics",
    "north-carolina-politics",
    "election-margins",
    "comparative-politics"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This event tracks which 2026 U.S. Senate race produces the larger margin of victory: Georgia or North Carolina. The two Kalshi markets are structurally mirror images. One prices Georgia winning the margin comparison; the other prices North Carolina. Kalshi staff determination based on official election results will resolve both markets after November 3, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-ZNCKL8DBF9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.54,
    "implied_probability": 0.54
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-01NLT1Q1W5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GFR52HJHB3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMOVGANCSEN-26NOV03-GASEN",
      "question": "Will Georgia Senate have the largest margin of victory in the Georgia and North Carolina Senate elections?",
      "description": "Georgia Senate",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Georgia Senate: Kalshi staff determination based on official election results will establish whether the named state's Senate race margin exceeds the other referenced state's margin by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Georgia Senate achieves the largest margin of victory among the listed options, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used.\n\nThe margin of victory is calculated as the absolute difference in vote share (expressed as percentage) between first and second place finishers. If official results aren't available by the deadline, preliminary results from Source Agencies with at least 95% of expected vote are used. ",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "FiveThirtyEight",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/",
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            "name": "FiveThirtyEight",
            "url": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "official state or local election division websites",
            "url": "https://www.vote.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC News",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Ballotpedia",
            "url": "https://ballotpedia.org",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
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          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "CBS News",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC News",
            "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
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          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: the official electoral commissions or secretaries of state for each jurisdiction holding elections within <elections>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "official electoral commissions or secretaries of state for each jurisdiction",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.52,
      "implied_probability": 0.52,
      "volume_24h_usd": 65.52,
      "volume_total_usd": 3467.3756,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "georgia",
        "georgia senate",
        "senate"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZNCKL8DBF9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GFR52HJHB3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMOVGANCSEN-26NOV03-NCSEN",
      "question": "Will North Carolina Senate have the largest margin of victory in the Georgia and North Carolina Senate elections?",
      "description": "North Carolina Senate",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "North Carolina Senate: Kalshi staff determination based on official election results will establish whether the named state's Senate race margin exceeds the other referenced state's margin by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If North Carolina Senate achieves the largest margin of victory among the listed options, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used.\n\nThe margin of victory is calculated as the absolute difference in vote share (expressed as percentage) between first and second place finishers. If official results aren't available by the deadline, preliminary results from Source Agencies with at least 95% of expected vote are used. ",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "FiveThirtyEight",
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            "name": "The Washington Post",
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            "name": "Politico",
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            "name": "NBC News",
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            "name": "Bloomberg News",
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          {
            "name": "Reuters",
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          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: the official electoral commissions or secretaries of state for each jurisdiction holding elections within <elections>",
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4188.790800000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "north carolina",
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        "senate"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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  "_provenance": {
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-GFR52HJHB3",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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