{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-4T7K9230H2",
  "slug": "kxmtch-26augpayers",
  "question": "Match Group total payers, Q2 2026",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      13350000,
      13400000
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 13150000,
        "prob": 98
      },
      {
        "threshold": 13200000,
        "prob": 94
      },
      {
        "threshold": 13250000,
        "prob": 80
      },
      {
        "threshold": 13300000,
        "prob": 70
      },
      {
        "threshold": 13350000,
        "prob": 56
      },
      {
        "threshold": 13400000,
        "prob": 40
      },
      {
        "threshold": 13450000,
        "prob": 5
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "match-group",
    "q2-2026",
    "total-payers",
    "financial-metrics",
    "earnings-forecast"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Match Group Inc.'s total payers metric for Q2 2026 earnings. Kalshi structures the event as seven discrete strike thresholds, ranging from 13.15 million to 13.45 million, each priced as a binary at a 50,000-unit interval. Together they form an implied probability distribution over the reported payer count. Resolution follows Kalshi staff determination using figures published by Fiscal.ai.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-CJLW57H1Q2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.4,
    "implied_probability": 0.4
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1PP1R8K3P6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4T7K9230H2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMTCH-26AUGPAYERS-P13150000.0",
      "question": "Will Match Group Inc. report above 13.15 million total payers in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "above 13.15 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "above 13.15 million: The listed company's Q2 2026 total payers figure, published by Fiscal.ai and verified by Kalshi staff, resolves by September 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-03T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-03T20:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Match Group Inc. reports above 13150000.0 total payers in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
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        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2240.28,
      "volume_total_usd": 2738.12,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 13150000,
      "question_id": "CMX-F4916B1045",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "match",
        "match group total",
        "mtch",
        "payers",
        "q2-2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-H73LYZDQ62",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4T7K9230H2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMTCH-26AUGPAYERS-P13200000.0",
      "question": "Will Match Group Inc. report above 13.2 million total payers in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "above 13.2 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "above 13.2 million: The listed company's Q2 2026 total payers figure, published by Fiscal.ai and verified by Kalshi staff, resolves by September 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-03T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-03T20:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Match Group Inc. reports above 13200000.0 total payers in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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      "rcg": {
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 13200000,
      "question_id": "CMX-09E858563C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "match",
        "match group total",
        "mtch",
        "payers",
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BFQ1N64ZR9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4T7K9230H2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMTCH-26AUGPAYERS-P13250000.0",
      "question": "Will Match Group Inc. report above 13.25 million total payers in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "above 13.25 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "above 13.25 million: The listed company's Q2 2026 total payers figure, published by Fiscal.ai and verified by Kalshi staff, resolves by September 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-03T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-03T20:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If Match Group Inc. reports above 13250000.0 total payers in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.8,
      "implied_probability": 0.8,
      "volume_24h_usd": 270.51,
      "volume_total_usd": 353.71,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 13250000,
      "question_id": "CMX-3647D9FBE8",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "match",
        "match group total",
        "mtch",
        "payers",
        "q2-2026"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VZMWLFBDN5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4T7K9230H2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMTCH-26AUGPAYERS-P13300000.0",
      "question": "Will Match Group Inc. report above 13.3 million total payers in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "above 13.3 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "above 13.3 million: The listed company's Q2 2026 total payers figure, published by Fiscal.ai and verified by Kalshi staff, resolves by September 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-03T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-03T20:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Match Group Inc. reports above 13300000.0 total payers in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
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        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.7,
      "implied_probability": 0.7,
      "volume_24h_usd": 358.06,
      "volume_total_usd": 622.23,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 13300000,
      "question_id": "CMX-76697B23E8",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "match",
        "match group total",
        "mtch",
        "payers",
        "q2-2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RSCJW5M2S1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4T7K9230H2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMTCH-26AUGPAYERS-P13350000.0",
      "question": "Will Match Group Inc. report above 13.35 million total payers in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "above 13.35 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "above 13.35 million: The listed company's Q2 2026 total payers figure, published by Fiscal.ai and verified by Kalshi staff, resolves by September 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-03T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-03T20:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Match Group Inc. reports above 13350000.0 total payers in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.56,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 781.01,
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      "threshold": 13350000,
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      "tags": [
        "match",
        "match group total",
        "mtch",
        "payers",
        "q2-2026"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CJLW57H1Q2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4T7K9230H2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMTCH-26AUGPAYERS-P13400000.0",
      "question": "Will Match Group Inc. report above 13.4 million total payers in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "above 13.4 million",
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      "close_at": "2026-09-03T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-03T20:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If Match Group Inc. reports above 13400000.0 total payers in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.4,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 235.94,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 13400000,
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      "tags": [
        "match",
        "match group total",
        "mtch",
        "payers",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-932DVXX6F7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4T7K9230H2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMTCH-26AUGPAYERS-P13450000.0",
      "question": "Will Match Group Inc. report above 13.45 million total payers in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "above 13.45 million",
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        "rules_raw": "If Match Group Inc. reports above 13450000.0 total payers in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
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        "match group total",
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-4T7K9230H2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}