{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-676X33XW31",
  "slug": "kxmtcha-28janpayers",
  "question": "Match Group Inc. report million total payers in 2026",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      13000000,
      13200000
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 12400000,
        "prob": 90
      },
      {
        "threshold": 12600000,
        "prob": 78
      },
      {
        "threshold": 12800000,
        "prob": 66
      },
      {
        "threshold": 13000000,
        "prob": 50
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      {
        "threshold": 13200000,
        "prob": 26
      },
      {
        "threshold": 13400000,
        "prob": 18
      },
      {
        "threshold": 13600000,
        "prob": 14
      },
      {
        "threshold": 13800000,
        "prob": 6
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "match-group",
    "total-payers",
    "financial-metrics",
    "2028",
    "earnings-report"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Match Group Inc.'s total payers metric for full-year 2026. Kalshi structures the event as eight discrete strike thresholds, ranging from 12.4 million to 13.8 million, each pricing the probability of exceeding that level. Together they form an implied cumulative distribution of the payer count outcome. Resolution relies on Kalshi staff determination using Match Group's reported figures as distributed via Fiscal.ai.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-165QJ27010",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.26
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  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0LJX3CXCX3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-676X33XW31",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMTCHA-28JANPAYERS-12400000.0",
      "question": "Will Match Group Inc. report Above 12.4 million total payers in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 12.4 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 12.4 million: The listed company's reported total payers figure for 2026, as published on Fiscal.ai and determined by Kalshi staff by March 31, 2028, resolves this market.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Match Group Inc. reports Above 12400000.0 total payers in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.9,
      "implied_probability": 0.9,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4865.400000000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 12400000,
      "question_id": "CMX-5334C15AE0",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "match",
        "match group total",
        "payers"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9JVPF01R65",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-676X33XW31",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMTCHA-28JANPAYERS-12600000.0",
      "question": "Will Match Group Inc. report Above 12.6 million total payers in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 12.6 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 12.6 million: The listed company's reported total payers figure for 2026, as published on Fiscal.ai and determined by Kalshi staff by March 31, 2028, resolves this market.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Match Group Inc. reports Above 12600000.0 total payers in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
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          {
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        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.78,
      "implied_probability": 0.78,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3604.341,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 12600000,
      "question_id": "CMX-0088453D46",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "match",
        "match group total",
        "payers"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7TPV1JCCH3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-676X33XW31",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMTCHA-28JANPAYERS-12800000.0",
      "question": "Will Match Group Inc. report Above 12.8 million total payers in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 12.8 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 12.8 million: The listed company's reported total payers figure for 2026, as published on Fiscal.ai and determined by Kalshi staff by March 31, 2028, resolves this market.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Match Group Inc. reports Above 12800000.0 total payers in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
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        "score": 72,
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.66,
      "implied_probability": 0.66,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2254.5138,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 12800000,
      "question_id": "CMX-5496B39C8F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "match",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DP0VCBMGG7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-676X33XW31",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMTCHA-28JANPAYERS-13000000.0",
      "question": "Will Match Group Inc. report Above 13 million total payers in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 13 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 13 million: The listed company's reported total payers figure for 2026, as published on Fiscal.ai and determined by Kalshi staff by March 31, 2028, resolves this market.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Match Group Inc. reports Above 13000000.0 total payers in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.5,
      "implied_probability": 0.5,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 110.855,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 13000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-6D7A1000F8",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-165QJ27010",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-676X33XW31",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMTCHA-28JANPAYERS-13200000.0",
      "question": "Will Match Group Inc. report Above 13.2 million total payers in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 13.2 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 13.2 million: The listed company's reported total payers figure for 2026, as published on Fiscal.ai and determined by Kalshi staff by March 31, 2028, resolves this market.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Match Group Inc. reports Above 13200000.0 total payers in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
            "url": "https://fiscal.ai",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.26,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 75.87060000000001,
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      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 13200000,
      "question_id": "CMX-B17268E7F9",
      "also_on": null,
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        "2026",
        "match",
        "match group total",
        "payers"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LZVG55MKC5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-676X33XW31",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMTCHA-28JANPAYERS-13400000.0",
      "question": "Will Match Group Inc. report Above 13.4 million total payers in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 13.4 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 13.4 million: The listed company's reported total payers figure for 2026, as published on Fiscal.ai and determined by Kalshi staff by March 31, 2028, resolves this market.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If Match Group Inc. reports Above 13400000.0 total payers in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
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      "last_price": 0.18,
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      "threshold": 13400000,
      "question_id": "CMX-3F169FC526",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DGV0ZF6DV9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-676X33XW31",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMTCHA-28JANPAYERS-13600000.0",
      "question": "Will Match Group Inc. report Above 13.6 million total payers in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 13.6 million",
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      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 13.6 million: The listed company's reported total payers figure for 2026, as published on Fiscal.ai and determined by Kalshi staff by March 31, 2028, resolves this market.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If Match Group Inc. reports Above 13600000.0 total payers in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-T0X6NQF3T2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-676X33XW31",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMTCHA-28JANPAYERS-13800000.0",
      "question": "Will Match Group Inc. report Above 13.8 million total payers in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 13.8 million",
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      "underlying_reference": "Above 13.8 million: The listed company's reported total payers figure for 2026, as published on Fiscal.ai and determined by Kalshi staff by March 31, 2028, resolves this market.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Match Group Inc. reports Above 13800000.0 total payers in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
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      "tags": [
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        "match group total",
        "payers"
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  "_provenance": {
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-676X33XW31",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}