{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-KPJ5X4JLG9",
  "slug": "kxmtgswitch-27jan",
  "question": "Will any politician switch or leave their party in 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "party-switching",
    "us-politics",
    "political-defection",
    "2026-events",
    "congressional-members"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These six Kalshi markets track whether named legislators will leave their current party by January 1, 2027. Each resolves via Kalshi staff determination using Fox News reporting on party affiliation at 3 p.m. ET on that date. All six are structured as binary outcome questions, isolating individual defection risk rather than pricing a broader realignment. The authoritative source is Fox News' reported affiliation, not any official congressional or electoral body.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-K808QJ2K88",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.22,
    "implied_probability": 0.22
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WTW91L58L8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KPJ5X4JLG9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN",
      "question": "Will Marjorie Taylor Greene leave the Republican party?",
      "description": "Marjorie Taylor Greene",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Marjorie Taylor Greene: The named candidate's party affiliation as reported by Fox News on January 1, 2027 at 3 p.m. ET determines the outcome, with Kalshi staff making the final determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Marjorie Taylor Greene leaves or announces that they are leaving the Republican party before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf Marjorie Taylor Greene changes their official party registration from Republican to another party or to independent/unaffiliated status, or announces they are no longer a member of the Republican  party, or is expelled from the Republican  party by official party action, then the market will resolve to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fox News",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.44,
      "implied_probability": 0.44,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 18988.252800000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "marjorie taylor greene",
        "mtg",
        "party-switch",
        "republican"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JJFMG4L549",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KPJ5X4JLG9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN-CUEL",
      "question": "Will Henry Cuellar leave the Democratic?",
      "description": "Henry Cuellar",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Henry Cuellar: The named candidate's party affiliation as reported by Fox News on January 1, 2027 at 3 p.m. ET determines the outcome, with Kalshi staff making the final determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Henry Cuellar leaves or announces that they are leaving the Democratic party before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf Henry Cuellar changes their official party registration from Democratic to another party or to independent/unaffiliated status, or announces they are no longer a member of the Democratic  party, or is expelled from the Democratic  party by official party action, then the market will resolve to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fox News",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.081,
      "implied_probability": 0.081,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 711.99,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "democrat",
        "henry cuellar",
        "party-switch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9VN4V5V9Y4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KPJ5X4JLG9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN-TMAS",
      "question": "Will Thomas Massie leave the Republican?",
      "description": "Thomas Massie",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Thomas Massie: The named candidate's party affiliation as reported by Fox News on January 1, 2027 at 3 p.m. ET determines the outcome, with Kalshi staff making the final determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Thomas Massie leaves or announces that they are leaving the Republican party before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf Thomas Massie changes their official party registration from Republican to another party or to independent/unaffiliated status, or announces they are no longer a member of the Republican  party, or is expelled from the Republican  party by official party action, then the market will resolve to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fox News",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.13,
      "implied_probability": 0.13,
      "volume_24h_usd": 30.290000000000003,
      "volume_total_usd": 1280.942,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "party-switch",
        "republican",
        "thomas massie"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CYTLP5F4S0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KPJ5X4JLG9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN-JFET",
      "question": "Will JFET leave the John Fetterman?",
      "description": "John Fetterman",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "John Fetterman: The named candidate's party affiliation as reported by Fox News on January 1, 2027 at 3 p.m. ET determines the outcome, with Kalshi staff making the final determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If John Fetterman leaves or announces that they are leaving the Democratic party before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf John Fetterman changes their official party registration from Democratic to another party or to independent/unaffiliated status, or announces they are no longer a member of the Democratic  party, or is expelled from the Democratic  party by official party action, then the market will resolve to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fox News",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.095,
      "implied_probability": 0.095,
      "volume_24h_usd": 41.7487,
      "volume_total_usd": 2165.27895,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "democrat",
        "john fetterman",
        "party-switch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-K808QJ2K88",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KPJ5X4JLG9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN-LMURK",
      "question": "Will Lisa Murkowski leave the Republican?",
      "description": "Lisa Murkowski",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Lisa Murkowski: The named candidate's party affiliation as reported by Fox News on January 1, 2027 at 3 p.m. ET determines the outcome, with Kalshi staff making the final determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Lisa Murkowski leaves or announces that they are leaving the Republican party before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf Lisa Murkowski changes their official party registration from Republican to another party or to independent/unaffiliated status, or announces they are no longer a member of the Republican  party, or is expelled from the Republican  party by official party action, then the market will resolve to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fox News",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.22,
      "implied_probability": 0.22,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 5562.4492,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "lisa murkowski",
        "party-switch",
        "republican"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KPJ5X4JLG9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN-DBAC",
      "question": "Will Don Bacon leave the Republican?",
      "description": "Don Bacon",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Don Bacon: The named candidate's party affiliation as reported by Fox News on January 1, 2027 at 3 p.m. ET determines the outcome, with Kalshi staff making the final determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Don Bacon leaves or announces that they are leaving the Republican party before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf Don Bacon changes their official party registration from Republican to another party or to independent/unaffiliated status, or announces they are no longer a member of the Republican  party, or is expelled from the Republican  party by official party action, then the market will resolve to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fox News",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
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          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
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          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
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          {
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          {
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          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
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          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
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          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.065,
      "implied_probability": 0.065,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 626.8275,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "don bacon",
        "party-switch",
        "republican"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-KPJ5X4JLG9",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}