{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-KPJ5X4JLG9",
  "slug": "kxmtgswitch-27jan",
  "question": "Will any politician switch or leave their party in 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "party-switching",
    "us-politics",
    "political-defection",
    "2026-events",
    "congressional-members"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether six named U.S. legislators will formally leave their current parties before January 2027. Each contract is a binary outcome on a single legislator: Greene, Massie, Murkowski, and Bacon on the Republican side; Cuellar and Fetterman on the Democratic side. All six resolve via Kalshi staff determination, referencing Fox News reporting as the authoritative source. Resolution closes simultaneously at January 1, 2027.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-WTW91L58L8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.37,
    "implied_probability": 0.37,
    "as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WTW91L58L8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KPJ5X4JLG9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN",
      "question": "Will Marjorie Taylor Greene leave the Republican party?",
      "description": "Marjorie Taylor Greene",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Marjorie Taylor Greene: Kalshi staff determination based on Fox News reporting resolves whether the named candidate leaves the Republican party by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Marjorie Taylor Greene leaves or announces that they are leaving the Republican party before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf Marjorie Taylor Greene changes their official party registration from Republican to another party or to independent/unaffiliated status, or announces they are no longer a member of the Republican  party, or is expelled from the Republican  party by official party action, then the market will resolve to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fox News",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
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          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 58,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.37,
      "implied_probability": 0.37,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 18180.1276,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "marjorie taylor greene",
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        "republican"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JJFMG4L549",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KPJ5X4JLG9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN-CUEL",
      "question": "Will Henry Cuellar leave the Democratic?",
      "description": "Henry Cuellar",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Henry Cuellar: Kalshi staff determination based on Fox News reporting resolves whether the named candidate leaves the Republican party by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Henry Cuellar leaves or announces that they are leaving the Democratic party before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf Henry Cuellar changes their official party registration from Democratic to another party or to independent/unaffiliated status, or announces they are no longer a member of the Democratic  party, or is expelled from the Democratic  party by official party action, then the market will resolve to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fox News",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
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            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
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            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
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        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 58,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.081,
      "implied_probability": 0.081,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 711.99,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "democrat",
        "henry cuellar",
        "party-switch"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9VN4V5V9Y4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KPJ5X4JLG9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN-TMAS",
      "question": "Will Thomas Massie leave the Republican?",
      "description": "Thomas Massie",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Thomas Massie: Kalshi staff determination based on Fox News reporting resolves whether the named candidate leaves the Republican party by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Thomas Massie leaves or announces that they are leaving the Republican party before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf Thomas Massie changes their official party registration from Republican to another party or to independent/unaffiliated status, or announces they are no longer a member of the Republican  party, or is expelled from the Republican  party by official party action, then the market will resolve to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fox News",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
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            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 58,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.12,
      "implied_probability": 0.12,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 9.4188,
      "volume_total_usd": 1410.8448,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "party-switch",
        "republican",
        "thomas massie"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "permitted_category": null,
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CYTLP5F4S0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KPJ5X4JLG9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN-JFET",
      "question": "Will JFET leave the John Fetterman?",
      "description": "John Fetterman",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "John Fetterman: Kalshi staff determination based on Fox News reporting resolves whether the named candidate leaves the Republican party by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If John Fetterman leaves or announces that they are leaving the Democratic party before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf John Fetterman changes their official party registration from Democratic to another party or to independent/unaffiliated status, or announces they are no longer a member of the Democratic  party, or is expelled from the Democratic  party by official party action, then the market will resolve to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fox News",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
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          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
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          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
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            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 58,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.052,
      "implied_probability": 0.052,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 2.145,
      "volume_total_usd": 1946.06828,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
        "democrat",
        "john fetterman",
        "party-switch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-K808QJ2K88",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KPJ5X4JLG9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN-LMURK",
      "question": "Will Lisa Murkowski leave the Republican?",
      "description": "Lisa Murkowski",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Lisa Murkowski: Kalshi staff determination based on Fox News reporting resolves whether the named candidate leaves the Republican party by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Lisa Murkowski leaves or announces that they are leaving the Republican party before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf Lisa Murkowski changes their official party registration from Republican to another party or to independent/unaffiliated status, or announces they are no longer a member of the Republican  party, or is expelled from the Republican  party by official party action, then the market will resolve to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fox News",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
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          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
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          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 58,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.12,
      "implied_probability": 0.12,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KPJ5X4JLG9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN-DBAC",
      "question": "Will Don Bacon leave the Republican?",
      "description": "Don Bacon",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Don Bacon: Kalshi staff determination based on Fox News reporting resolves whether the named candidate leaves the Republican party by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Don Bacon leaves or announces that they are leaving the Republican party before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf Don Bacon changes their official party registration from Republican to another party or to independent/unaffiliated status, or announces they are no longer a member of the Republican  party, or is expelled from the Republican  party by official party action, then the market will resolve to Yes.",
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          {
            "name": "Reuters",
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            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
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          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
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        ],
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 58,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.065,
      "implied_probability": 0.065,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-05T10:00:55.934Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 626.8275,
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          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
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  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-KPJ5X4JLG9",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}