{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-W083H0HNY7",
  "slug": "kxnclha-28janpax",
  "question": "Will Norwegian Cruise Line carry passengers in 2026?",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "cruise-industry",
    "passenger-capacity",
    "norwegian-cruise-line",
    "travel-tourism",
    "quarterly-reporting"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings' total passengers carried in fiscal year 2026. Kalshi structures the event as seven discrete strike thresholds, ranging from 3.1 million to 3.4 million, each resolved independently as a binary outcome. Taken together, the ladder implies a probability distribution over the passenger count range. Kalshi staff determination relies on the company's official fiscal year 2026 financial disclosures, settling no earlier than March 2028.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-B9V7TXBPN6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.92,
    "implied_probability": 0.92
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7L2XSBDC46",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W083H0HNY7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXNCLHA-28JANPAX-3100000.0",
      "question": "Will Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. report Above 3.1 million passengers carried in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 3.1 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.1 million: The listed company's annual passenger count reported in fiscal year 2026 financial disclosures, verified by Kalshi staff against Fiscal.ai data, resolves by March 31, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. reports Above 3100000.0 passengers carried in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
            "url": "https://fiscal.ai",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2993.4975999999997,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3100000,
      "question_id": "CMX-9881FCC716",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "cruise",
        "nclh",
        "norwegian cruise line",
        "passengers"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2S0D65TBP5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W083H0HNY7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXNCLHA-28JANPAX-3150000.0",
      "question": "Will Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. report Above 3.15 million passengers carried in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 3.15 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.15 million: The listed company's annual passenger count reported in fiscal year 2026 financial disclosures, verified by Kalshi staff against Fiscal.ai data, resolves by March 31, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. reports Above 3150000.0 passengers carried in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
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          {
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 8832.3246,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3150000,
      "question_id": "CMX-366C4DA26D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "cruise",
        "nclh",
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        "passengers"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Z16660CB00",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W083H0HNY7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXNCLHA-28JANPAX-3200000.0",
      "question": "Will Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. report Above 3.2 million passengers carried in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 3.2 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.2 million: The listed company's annual passenger count reported in fiscal year 2026 financial disclosures, verified by Kalshi staff against Fiscal.ai data, resolves by March 31, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. reports Above 3200000.0 passengers carried in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.9,
      "implied_probability": 0.9,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 9690.822,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3200000,
      "question_id": "CMX-B47D7450D3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
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        "passengers"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-B9V7TXBPN6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W083H0HNY7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXNCLHA-28JANPAX-3250000.0",
      "question": "Will Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. report Above 3.25 million passengers carried in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 3.25 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.25 million: The listed company's annual passenger count reported in fiscal year 2026 financial disclosures, verified by Kalshi staff against Fiscal.ai data, resolves by March 31, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. reports Above 3250000.0 passengers carried in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.92,
      "implied_probability": 0.92,
      "volume_24h_usd": 9.200000000000001,
      "volume_total_usd": 15472.2656,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3250000,
      "question_id": "CMX-4E63EFD88E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "cruise",
        "nclh",
        "norwegian cruise line",
        "passengers"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P9FGG2KWZ7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W083H0HNY7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXNCLHA-28JANPAX-3300000.0",
      "question": "Will Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. report Above 3.3 million passengers carried in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 3.3 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.3 million: The listed company's annual passenger count reported in fiscal year 2026 financial disclosures, verified by Kalshi staff against Fiscal.ai data, resolves by March 31, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. reports Above 3300000.0 passengers carried in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
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      "volume_total_usd": 12314.3572,
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KXPXRLHB00",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W083H0HNY7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXNCLHA-28JANPAX-3350000.0",
      "question": "Will Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. report Above 3.35 million passengers carried in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 3.35 million",
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-W083H0HNY7",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}