{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-K2KVW60PK3",
  "slug": "kxneuralinkcount-26",
  "question": "How many people will Neuralink have implanted by the end of 2026?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "neuralink",
    "neural-implants",
    "brain-computer-interface",
    "2026-implants",
    "medical-technology"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the cumulative number of Neuralink brain-computer interface implants performed through December 31, 2026. Kalshi structures this as six ascending threshold tiers: at least 25, 30, 40, 50, 75, and 100 implants. Higher-strike tiers are nested inside lower ones, so prices must decline monotonically across the ladder. Resolution depends on Kalshi staff determination of implant counts publicly disclosed by Neuralink; undisclosed or unverified figures will not satisfy resolution criteria.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-92Z8X88496",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.9,
    "implied_probability": 0.9
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-92Z8X88496",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K2KVW60PK3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXNEURALINKCOUNT-26-25",
      "question": "How many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026?",
      "description": "At least 25",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 25: Kalshi staff determination of implant count disclosed by the named company through 2026-12-31, resolved by January 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If at least 25 persons have received Neuralink brain-computer interface implants before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nOnly unique human individuals count toward the total, regardless of how many devices each person receives. If one person receives multiple implants or device replacements, they count as one person.\n\nCumulative totals include all persons who have ever received a Neuralink implant, including those who may have had devices removed, experienced device failure, or are deceased. Only successful implantations count; attempted implantations that are aborted during surgery (and thus not actually implanted) do not count.\n\nThe implantations need not occur after Issuance to count toward 25.\n\nFor the purposes of this contract, Neuralink brain-computer interface implants include the following:\n\nThe N1 chip system and any successor devices developed by Neuralink\nDevices surgically implanted in the brain or nervous system designed to record neural activity and/or stimulate neural tissue\nBoth fully functional and partially functional implanted devices\nDevices implanted for medical treatment, research, or enhancement purposes\n\nThe following do NOT count as Neuralink implants:\n\nExternal devices, headsets, or non-implanted brain-computer interfaces\nDevices developed by other companies, even if similar in function\nNeuralink devices implanted in animals\nTheoretical, planned, or projected implant numbers without confirmation of actual procedures\n\nIf Neuralink merges with a different company or changes its name, the Contract will continue to track the successor entity.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Neuralink",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://neuralink.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Neuralink",
            "url": "https://neuralink.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Barrow Neurological Institute",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Elon Musk",
            "url": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Neuralink",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 56,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.9,
      "implied_probability": 0.9,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2754.7380000000003,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 25,
      "question_id": "CMX-2D3FBA1F9F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "implants",
        "neuralink",
        "neuralink implants"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RNJDT84B19",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K2KVW60PK3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXNEURALINKCOUNT-26-30",
      "question": "How many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026?",
      "description": "At least 30",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 30: Kalshi staff determination of implant count disclosed by the named company through 2026-12-31, resolved by January 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If at least 30 persons have received Neuralink brain-computer interface implants before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nOnly unique human individuals count toward the total, regardless of how many devices each person receives. If one person receives multiple implants or device replacements, they count as one person.\n\nCumulative totals include all persons who have ever received a Neuralink implant, including those who may have had devices removed, experienced device failure, or are deceased. Only successful implantations count; attempted implantations that are aborted during surgery (and thus not actually implanted) do not count.\n\nThe implantations need not occur after Issuance to count toward 30.\n\nFor the purposes of this contract, Neuralink brain-computer interface implants include the following:\n\nThe N1 chip system and any successor devices developed by Neuralink\nDevices surgically implanted in the brain or nervous system designed to record neural activity and/or stimulate neural tissue\nBoth fully functional and partially functional implanted devices\nDevices implanted for medical treatment, research, or enhancement purposes\n\nThe following do NOT count as Neuralink implants:\n\nExternal devices, headsets, or non-implanted brain-computer interfaces\nDevices developed by other companies, even if similar in function\nNeuralink devices implanted in animals\nTheoretical, planned, or projected implant numbers without confirmation of actual procedures\n\nIf Neuralink merges with a different company or changes its name, the Contract will continue to track the successor entity.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Elon Musk",
            "url": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Neuralink",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 56,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.75,
      "implied_probability": 0.75,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1136.595,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 30,
      "question_id": "CMX-EEE4188CCF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "implants",
        "neuralink",
        "neuralink implants"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZDBXPGMFG1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K2KVW60PK3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXNEURALINKCOUNT-26-40",
      "question": "How many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026?",
      "description": "At least 40",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 40: Kalshi staff determination of implant count disclosed by the named company through 2026-12-31, resolved by January 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If at least 40 persons have received Neuralink brain-computer interface implants before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nOnly unique human individuals count toward the total, regardless of how many devices each person receives. If one person receives multiple implants or device replacements, they count as one person.\n\nCumulative totals include all persons who have ever received a Neuralink implant, including those who may have had devices removed, experienced device failure, or are deceased. Only successful implantations count; attempted implantations that are aborted during surgery (and thus not actually implanted) do not count.\n\nThe implantations need not occur after Issuance to count toward 40.\n\nFor the purposes of this contract, Neuralink brain-computer interface implants include the following:\n\nThe N1 chip system and any successor devices developed by Neuralink\nDevices surgically implanted in the brain or nervous system designed to record neural activity and/or stimulate neural tissue\nBoth fully functional and partially functional implanted devices\nDevices implanted for medical treatment, research, or enhancement purposes\n\nThe following do NOT count as Neuralink implants:\n\nExternal devices, headsets, or non-implanted brain-computer interfaces\nDevices developed by other companies, even if similar in function\nNeuralink devices implanted in animals\nTheoretical, planned, or projected implant numbers without confirmation of actual procedures\n\nIf Neuralink merges with a different company or changes its name, the Contract will continue to track the successor entity.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "Neuralink",
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          {
            "name": "Barrow Neurological Institute",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Elon Musk",
            "url": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Neuralink",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 56,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.55,
      "implied_probability": 0.55,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1467.3065000000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 40,
      "question_id": "CMX-515D4E3808",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "implants",
        "neuralink",
        "neuralink implants"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Q861TFNCN6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K2KVW60PK3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXNEURALINKCOUNT-26-50",
      "question": "How many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026?",
      "description": "At least 50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 50: Kalshi staff determination of implant count disclosed by the named company through 2026-12-31, resolved by January 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If at least 50 persons have received Neuralink brain-computer interface implants before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nOnly unique human individuals count toward the total, regardless of how many devices each person receives. If one person receives multiple implants or device replacements, they count as one person.\n\nCumulative totals include all persons who have ever received a Neuralink implant, including those who may have had devices removed, experienced device failure, or are deceased. Only successful implantations count; attempted implantations that are aborted during surgery (and thus not actually implanted) do not count.\n\nThe implantations need not occur after Issuance to count toward 50.\n\nFor the purposes of this contract, Neuralink brain-computer interface implants include the following:\n\nThe N1 chip system and any successor devices developed by Neuralink\nDevices surgically implanted in the brain or nervous system designed to record neural activity and/or stimulate neural tissue\nBoth fully functional and partially functional implanted devices\nDevices implanted for medical treatment, research, or enhancement purposes\n\nThe following do NOT count as Neuralink implants:\n\nExternal devices, headsets, or non-implanted brain-computer interfaces\nDevices developed by other companies, even if similar in function\nNeuralink devices implanted in animals\nTheoretical, planned, or projected implant numbers without confirmation of actual procedures\n\nIf Neuralink merges with a different company or changes its name, the Contract will continue to track the successor entity.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Neuralink",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://neuralink.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Neuralink",
            "url": "https://neuralink.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "Barrow Neurological Institute",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Elon Musk",
            "url": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 56,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.41,
      "implied_probability": 0.41,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 471.8895,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 50,
      "question_id": "CMX-B5619C907A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "implants",
        "neuralink",
        "neuralink implants"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V3YLMWL561",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K2KVW60PK3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXNEURALINKCOUNT-26-75",
      "question": "How many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026?",
      "description": "At least 75",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 75: Kalshi staff determination of implant count disclosed by the named company through 2026-12-31, resolved by January 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If at least 75 persons have received Neuralink brain-computer interface implants before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nOnly unique human individuals count toward the total, regardless of how many devices each person receives. If one person receives multiple implants or device replacements, they count as one person.\n\nCumulative totals include all persons who have ever received a Neuralink implant, including those who may have had devices removed, experienced device failure, or are deceased. Only successful implantations count; attempted implantations that are aborted during surgery (and thus not actually implanted) do not count.\n\nThe implantations need not occur after Issuance to count toward 75.\n\nFor the purposes of this contract, Neuralink brain-computer interface implants include the following:\n\nThe N1 chip system and any successor devices developed by Neuralink\nDevices surgically implanted in the brain or nervous system designed to record neural activity and/or stimulate neural tissue\nBoth fully functional and partially functional implanted devices\nDevices implanted for medical treatment, research, or enhancement purposes\n\nThe following do NOT count as Neuralink implants:\n\nExternal devices, headsets, or non-implanted brain-computer interfaces\nDevices developed by other companies, even if similar in function\nNeuralink devices implanted in animals\nTheoretical, planned, or projected implant numbers without confirmation of actual procedures\n\nIf Neuralink merges with a different company or changes its name, the Contract will continue to track the successor entity.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Neuralink",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://neuralink.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Neuralink",
            "url": "https://neuralink.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Barrow Neurological Institute",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Elon Musk",
            "url": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Neuralink",
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        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 56,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.12,
      "implied_probability": 0.12,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 166.794,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 75,
      "question_id": "CMX-C207435D47",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "implants",
        "neuralink",
        "neuralink implants"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FB3Y43DFY6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K2KVW60PK3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXNEURALINKCOUNT-26-100",
      "question": "How many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026?",
      "description": "At least 100",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 100: Kalshi staff determination of implant count disclosed by the named company through 2026-12-31, resolved by January 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If at least 100 persons have received Neuralink brain-computer interface implants before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nOnly unique human individuals count toward the total, regardless of how many devices each person receives. If one person receives multiple implants or device replacements, they count as one person.\n\nCumulative totals include all persons who have ever received a Neuralink implant, including those who may have had devices removed, experienced device failure, or are deceased. Only successful implantations count; attempted implantations that are aborted during surgery (and thus not actually implanted) do not count.\n\nThe implantations need not occur after Issuance to count toward 100.\n\nFor the purposes of this contract, Neuralink brain-computer interface implants include the following:\n\nThe N1 chip system and any successor devices developed by Neuralink\nDevices surgically implanted in the brain or nervous system designed to record neural activity and/or stimulate neural tissue\nBoth fully functional and partially functional implanted devices\nDevices implanted for medical treatment, research, or enhancement purposes\n\nThe following do NOT count as Neuralink implants:\n\nExternal devices, headsets, or non-implanted brain-computer interfaces\nDevices developed by other companies, even if similar in function\nNeuralink devices implanted in animals\nTheoretical, planned, or projected implant numbers without confirmation of actual procedures\n\nIf Neuralink merges with a different company or changes its name, the Contract will continue to track the successor entity.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Neuralink",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://neuralink.com/",
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            "url": "https://neuralink.com/",
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            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Elon Musk",
            "url": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 56,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0.55,
      "volume_total_usd": 114.86200000000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 100,
      "question_id": "CMX-5EE16B9F18",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "implants",
        "neuralink",
        "neuralink implants"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-K2KVW60PK3",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}