{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZT1ML7KRX8",
  "slug": "kxngasmax-26dec31",
  "question": "What will be the highest natural gas spot price in 2026?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "natural-gas",
    "commodity-pricing",
    "spot-price",
    "energy-markets",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Henry Hub natural gas spot prices breach discrete strike thresholds between $4.00 and $7.00 per MMBtu at any point in 2026. The seven Kalshi contracts function as a strike ladder: each binary resolves YES if the Energy Information Administration daily price touches or exceeds that level before January 1, 2027. Kalshi staff determination applies, using EIA daily natural gas futures prices as the authoritative source, with final resolution on January 14, 2027. Traders can read implied probability differentials across strikes to infer market consensus on the 2026 price ceiling.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-KKHBH556D2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.09,
    "implied_probability": 0.09,
    "as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1204V6WHM0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZT1ML7KRX8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXNGASMAX-26DEC31-P4.00",
      "question": "Will the price of natural gas get above $4.00 per million BTU before January 1, 2027?",
      "description": "$4.01 or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-14T19:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If the U.S. Energy Information Administration reports the Henry Hub natural gas spot price above $4.00 per million Btu on any day after Issuance and before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Energy Information Administration",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/NG_PRI_FUT_S1_D.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Energy Information Administration",
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        "source_of_record": "Energy Information Administration",
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      "last_price": 0.07,
      "implied_probability": 0.07,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0.31500000000000006,
      "volume_total_usd": 1235.1619,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4,
      "question_id": "CMX-2C915CD408",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-K2V5NCMMG3",
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXNGASMAX-26DEC31-P4.50",
      "question": "Will the price of natural gas get above $4.50 per million BTU before January 1, 2027?",
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        "rules_raw": "If the U.S. Energy Information Administration reports the Henry Hub natural gas spot price above $4.50 per million Btu on any day after Issuance and before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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        "grade": "A",
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      "last_price": 0.72,
      "implied_probability": 0.72,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "threshold": 4.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-4FDD2F6979",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YKR1FMYZ34",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZT1ML7KRX8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXNGASMAX-26DEC31-P5.00",
      "question": "Will the price of natural gas get above $5.00 per million BTU before January 1, 2027?",
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        "rules_raw": "If the U.S. Energy Information Administration reports the Henry Hub natural gas spot price above $5.00 per million Btu on any day after Issuance and before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Energy Information Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/NG_PRI_FUT_S1_D.htm",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 97,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.51,
      "implied_probability": 0.51,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 335.6361,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 5,
      "question_id": "CMX-10B1DA8E86",
      "also_on": null,
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SN6HC2T542",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZT1ML7KRX8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXNGASMAX-26DEC31-P5.50",
      "question": "Will the price of natural gas get above $5.50 per million BTU before January 1, 2027?",
      "description": "$5.51 or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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        "rules_raw": "If the U.S. Energy Information Administration reports the Henry Hub natural gas spot price above $5.50 per million Btu on any day after Issuance and before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/NG_PRI_FUT_S1_D.htm",
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          {
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      "last_price": 0.11,
      "implied_probability": 0.11,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 11,
      "volume_total_usd": 1230.3071,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "threshold": 5.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-5EC8A0509F",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9QK6RQJF64",
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXNGASMAX-26DEC31-P6.00",
      "question": "Will the price of natural gas get above $6.00 per million BTU before January 1, 2027?",
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXNGASMAX-26DEC31-P6.50",
      "question": "Will the price of natural gas get above $6.50 per million BTU before January 1, 2027?",
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      "underlying_reference": "$6.51 or above: Energy Information Administration daily natural gas futures prices resolve on January 14, 2027 whether the referenced price threshold was exceeded before January 1, 2027.",
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        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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}