{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-S1WDYBGJ14",
  "slug": "kxnhsales-26jul24",
  "question": "US new home sales for June 2026",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      580000,
      600000
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 520000,
        "prob": 93
      },
      {
        "threshold": 540000,
        "prob": 89
      },
      {
        "threshold": 560000,
        "prob": 81
      },
      {
        "threshold": 580000,
        "prob": 70
      },
      {
        "threshold": 600000,
        "prob": 45
      },
      {
        "threshold": 620000,
        "prob": 29
      },
      {
        "threshold": 640000,
        "prob": 21
      },
      {
        "threshold": 660000,
        "prob": 14
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "us-housing",
    "economic-data",
    "june-2026",
    "real-estate",
    "construction-activity"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Census Bureau's June 2026 New Residential Sales figure, reported as a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Kalshi structures the event as eight discrete strike thresholds spanning 520,000 to 660,000, each a binary above/below contract. The implied probability distribution across strikes lets traders read a synthetic cumulative density function for the print. Kalshi staff determination governs resolution, sourced directly from the Census Bureau's New Residential Sales report due by July 31, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-27SFW992B3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.45,
    "implied_probability": 0.45
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9NZDH1LWH7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-S1WDYBGJ14",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXNHSALES-26JUL24-T520000",
      "question": "Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 520,000?",
      "description": "Above 520,000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 520,000: US new home sales for June 2026 resolve via the Census Bureau's New Residential Sales report released by end of July 2026, with Kalshi staff determination of the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-24T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T15:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If US new home sales (New Residential Sales) for June 2026 (seasonally adjusted annual rate, SAAR, reported in thousands of homes) is above 520,000, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.93,
      "implied_probability": 0.93,
      "volume_24h_usd": 9.3,
      "volume_total_usd": 704.29,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 520000,
      "question_id": "CMX-1FAA211D5D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "housing",
        "sales",
        "us home sales",
        "us-economic"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JPGFZKBCM1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-S1WDYBGJ14",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXNHSALES-26JUL24-T540000",
      "question": "Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 540,000?",
      "description": "Above 540,000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 540,000: US new home sales for June 2026 resolve via the Census Bureau's New Residential Sales report released by end of July 2026, with Kalshi staff determination of the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-24T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T15:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If US new home sales (New Residential Sales) for June 2026 (seasonally adjusted annual rate, SAAR, reported in thousands of homes) is above 540,000, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.89,
      "implied_probability": 0.89,
      "volume_24h_usd": 11.57,
      "volume_total_usd": 847.39,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 540000,
      "question_id": "CMX-121E71C332",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "housing",
        "sales",
        "us home sales",
        "us-economic"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2ZWBCF2634",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-S1WDYBGJ14",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXNHSALES-26JUL24-T560000",
      "question": "Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 560,000?",
      "description": "Above 560,000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 560,000: US new home sales for June 2026 resolve via the Census Bureau's New Residential Sales report released by end of July 2026, with Kalshi staff determination of the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-24T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T15:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If US new home sales (New Residential Sales) for June 2026 (seasonally adjusted annual rate, SAAR, reported in thousands of homes) is above 560,000, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.81,
      "implied_probability": 0.81,
      "volume_24h_usd": 96.39,
      "volume_total_usd": 845.62,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 560000,
      "question_id": "CMX-477D7DA72A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "housing",
        "sales",
        "us home sales",
        "us-economic"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WYLKSH9V61",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-S1WDYBGJ14",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXNHSALES-26JUL24-T580000",
      "question": "Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 580,000?",
      "description": "Above 580,000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 580,000: US new home sales for June 2026 resolve via the Census Bureau's New Residential Sales report released by end of July 2026, with Kalshi staff determination of the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-24T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T15:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If US new home sales (New Residential Sales) for June 2026 (seasonally adjusted annual rate, SAAR, reported in thousands of homes) is above 580,000, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.7,
      "implied_probability": 0.7,
      "volume_24h_usd": 51.07,
      "volume_total_usd": 793.74,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 580000,
      "question_id": "CMX-31B54E6A76",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "housing",
        "sales",
        "us home sales",
        "us-economic"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-27SFW992B3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-S1WDYBGJ14",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXNHSALES-26JUL24-T600000",
      "question": "Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 600,000?",
      "description": "Above 600,000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 600,000: US new home sales for June 2026 resolve via the Census Bureau's New Residential Sales report released by end of July 2026, with Kalshi staff determination of the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-24T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T15:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If US new home sales (New Residential Sales) for June 2026 (seasonally adjusted annual rate, SAAR, reported in thousands of homes) is above 600,000, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
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        "caps": [],
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      "last_price": 0.45,
      "implied_probability": 0.45,
      "volume_24h_usd": 299.98,
      "volume_total_usd": 1514.48,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 600000,
      "question_id": "CMX-0C0B058336",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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    {
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      "platform_market_id": "KXNHSALES-26JUL24-T620000",
      "question": "Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 620,000?",
      "description": "Above 620,000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 620,000: US new home sales for June 2026 resolve via the Census Bureau's New Residential Sales report released by end of July 2026, with Kalshi staff determination of the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-24T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T15:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If US new home sales (New Residential Sales) for June 2026 (seasonally adjusted annual rate, SAAR, reported in thousands of homes) is above 620,000, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXNHSALES-26JUL24-T640000",
      "question": "Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 640,000?",
      "description": "Above 640,000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 640,000: US new home sales for June 2026 resolve via the Census Bureau's New Residential Sales report released by end of July 2026, with Kalshi staff determination of the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-24T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T15:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If US new home sales (New Residential Sales) for June 2026 (seasonally adjusted annual rate, SAAR, reported in thousands of homes) is above 640,000, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXNHSALES-26JUL24-T660000",
      "question": "Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 660,000?",
      "description": "Above 660,000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 660,000: US new home sales for June 2026 resolve via the Census Bureau's New Residential Sales report released by end of July 2026, with Kalshi staff determination of the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-24T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T15:30:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If US new home sales (New Residential Sales) for June 2026 (seasonally adjusted annual rate, SAAR, reported in thousands of homes) is above 660,000, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-S1WDYBGJ14",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}