{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-2G1CVPVX54",
  "slug": "kxnobelpeace-26",
  "question": "Will the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize be awarded by January 1, 2027?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "nobel-peace-prize",
    "2026",
    "international-recognition",
    "peace-advocacy",
    "annual-award"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize laureate. Kalshi lists each candidate as a separate binary contract, resolved by Kalshi staff determination. The authoritative source is the Nobel Prize organization's official October announcement. Only one contract resolves Yes; all others resolve No.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-M416MWDM63",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.04,
    "implied_probability": 0.04,
    "as_of": null
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  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M416MWDM63",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2G1CVPVX54",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXNOBELPEACE-26-DJT",
      "question": "Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?",
      "description": "Donald Trump",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Donald Trump: The Nobel Prize organization's official announcement of the named laureate category winner, published by October 31, 2026, resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Donald Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market and these products have not been endorsed by the Nobel Foundation. Any references to the Nobel Foundation or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between the Nobel Foundation and Kalshi.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Nobel Prize organization",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nobelprize.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Nobel Prize organization",
            "url": "https://www.nobelprize.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "Nobel Prize organization",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.04,
      "implied_probability": 0.04,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 81.86,
      "volume_total_usd": 24178.65,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
        "donald trump",
        "politician",
        "us"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BMLRZXHHN8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2G1CVPVX54",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXNOBELPEACE-26-FRA",
      "question": "Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?",
      "description": "Francesca Albanese",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Francesca Albanese: The Nobel Prize organization's official announcement of the named laureate category winner, published by October 31, 2026, resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Francesca Albanese wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market and these products have not been endorsed by the Nobel Foundation. Any references to the Nobel Foundation or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between the Nobel Foundation and Kalshi.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Nobel Prize organization",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.nobelprize.org/",
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        "source_of_record": "Nobel Prize organization",
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        "caps": [],
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      "last_price": 0.03,
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      "volume_total_usd": 97.38,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
        "activist",
        "francesca albanese",
        "human-rights"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "status": "not_eligible",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6R99D3RMX2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2G1CVPVX54",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXNOBELPEACE-26-NAR",
      "question": "Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?",
      "description": "Narges Mohammadi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Narges Mohammadi: The Nobel Prize organization's official announcement of the named laureate category winner, published by October 31, 2026, resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Narges Mohammadi wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market and these products have not been endorsed by the Nobel Foundation. Any references to the Nobel Foundation or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between the Nobel Foundation and Kalshi.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "Nobel Prize organization",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nobelprize.org/",
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          {
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            "url": "https://www.nobelprize.org/",
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        "source_of_record": "Nobel Prize organization",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
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      "last_price": 0.04,
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      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "iran",
        "narges mohammadi"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "status": "not_eligible",
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          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HMQ9G4MD26",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2G1CVPVX54",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXNOBELPEACE-26-VOL",
      "question": "Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?",
      "description": "Volodymyr Zelenskyy",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Volodymyr Zelenskyy: The Nobel Prize organization's official announcement of the named laureate category winner, published by October 31, 2026, resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Volodymyr Zelenskyy wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market and these products have not been endorsed by the Nobel Foundation. Any references to the Nobel Foundation or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between the Nobel Foundation and Kalshi.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Nobel Prize organization",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nobelprize.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Nobel Prize organization",
            "url": "https://www.nobelprize.org/",
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        "source_of_record": "Nobel Prize organization",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 45.55,
      "volume_total_usd": 1155.38,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "politician",
        "ukraine",
        "volodymyr zelenskyy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
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          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QQ3R044V15",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2G1CVPVX54",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXNOBELPEACE-26-EUR",
      "question": "Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?",
      "description": "European Union",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "European Union: The Nobel Prize organization's official announcement of the named laureate category winner, published by October 31, 2026, resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If European Union wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market and these products have not been endorsed by the Nobel Foundation. Any references to the Nobel Foundation or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between the Nobel Foundation and Kalshi.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Nobel Prize organization",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nobelprize.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Nobel Prize organization",
            "url": "https://www.nobelprize.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Nobel Prize organization",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4.37,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "multinational",
        "organization"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-L3532874K7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2G1CVPVX54",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXNOBELPEACE-26-ELO",
      "question": "Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?",
      "description": "Elon Musk",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Elon Musk: The Nobel Prize organization's official announcement of the named laureate category winner, published by October 31, 2026, resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Elon Musk wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market and these products have not been endorsed by the Nobel Foundation. Any references to the Nobel Foundation or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between the Nobel Foundation and Kalshi.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Nobel Prize organization",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.nobelprize.org/",
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          {
            "name": "Nobel Prize organization",
            "url": "https://www.nobelprize.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "Nobel Prize organization",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.03,
      "implied_probability": 0.03,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 192.06,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "tech"
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7SPSYFXJX0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2G1CVPVX54",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXNOBELPEACE-26-DOC",
      "question": "Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?",
      "description": "Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières)",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières): The Nobel Prize organization's official announcement of the named laureate category winner, published by October 31, 2026, resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières) wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market and these products have not been endorsed by the Nobel Foundation. Any references to the Nobel Foundation or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between the Nobel Foundation and Kalshi.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Nobel Prize organization",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nobelprize.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Nobel Prize organization",
            "url": "https://www.nobelprize.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Nobel Prize organization",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.13,
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      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 10.14,
      "volume_total_usd": 1580.69,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        }
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CQ4ZXPK7F3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2G1CVPVX54",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXNOBELPEACE-26-ICJ",
      "question": "Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?",
      "description": "International Court of Justice (ICJ)",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "International Court of Justice (ICJ): The Nobel Prize organization's official announcement of the named laureate category winner, published by October 31, 2026, resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If International Court of Justice (ICJ) wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market and these products have not been endorsed by the Nobel Foundation. Any references to the Nobel Foundation or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between the Nobel Foundation and Kalshi.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Nobel Prize organization",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nobelprize.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Nobel Prize organization",
            "url": "https://www.nobelprize.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "Nobel Prize organization",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.03,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 93.49,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NSSD0BRDJ1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2G1CVPVX54",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXNOBELPEACE-26-CE",
      "question": "Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?",
      "description": "Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue: The Nobel Prize organization's official announcement of the named laureate category winner, published by October 31, 2026, resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market and these products have not been endorsed by the Nobel Foundation. Any references to the Nobel Foundation or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between the Nobel Foundation and Kalshi.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Nobel Prize organization",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nobelprize.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Nobel Prize organization",
            "url": "https://www.nobelprize.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Nobel Prize organization",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
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        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-2G1CVPVX54",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}