{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-V9L5W42VM6",
  "slug": "kxnycbillionaires-26",
  "question": "New York City billionaires, 2026",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "below",
    "implied_band": [
      100,
      122
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 100,
        "prob": 10
      },
      {
        "threshold": 110,
        "prob": 10
      },
      {
        "threshold": 115,
        "prob": 22
      },
      {
        "threshold": 120,
        "prob": 30
      },
      {
        "threshold": 121,
        "prob": 41
      },
      {
        "threshold": 122,
        "prob": 54
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "nyc-billionaires",
    "wealth-migration",
    "economics-2026",
    "demographic-tracking",
    "us-economics"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the net decline in New York City billionaire count across 2026. Kalshi structures the event as six cumulative strike thresholds: at least 1, 2, 3, 8, 13, and 23 departures. The spread between low and high strikes prices the magnitude of outflow, not a binary directional outcome. Resolution uses Kalshi staff determination, referencing Forbes Media LLC's annual billionaires list compared year-over-year for New York City residents.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-J9MMBF1JP4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.09,
    "implied_probability": 0.09,
    "as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SLK40NX922",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V9L5W42VM6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXNYCBILLIONAIRES-26-122",
      "question": "How many billionaires will New York City lose this year?",
      "description": "At least 1",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 1: Forbes Media LLC's annual billionaires list, compared year-over-year for New York City residents, determines the count of billionaires lost by December 31, 2026, resolved by Kalshi staff.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If New York City has less than 122 billionaires in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Forbes Media LLC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Forbes Media LLC",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Forbes Media LLC",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.43,
      "implied_probability": 0.43,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1349.9290999999998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 122,
      "question_id": "CMX-761B281637",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "billionaires",
        "migration",
        "nyc",
        "wealth",
        "york city billionaires"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "screened_at": "2026-08-12",
          "cluster": "other_interpretation"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P91428PKW0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V9L5W42VM6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXNYCBILLIONAIRES-26-121",
      "question": "How many billionaires will New York City lose this year?",
      "description": "At least 2",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 2: Forbes Media LLC's annual billionaires list, compared year-over-year for New York City residents, determines the count of billionaires lost by December 31, 2026, resolved by Kalshi staff.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If New York City has less than 121 billionaires in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Forbes Media LLC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
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          {
            "name": "Forbes Media LLC",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.29,
      "implied_probability": 0.29,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 220.88139999999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 121,
      "question_id": "CMX-06F01B91FD",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "billionaires",
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          "screened_at": "2026-08-12",
          "cluster": "other_interpretation"
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KTYK5FCV69",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V9L5W42VM6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXNYCBILLIONAIRES-26-120",
      "question": "How many billionaires will New York City lose this year?",
      "description": "At least 3",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 3: Forbes Media LLC's annual billionaires list, compared year-over-year for New York City residents, determines the count of billionaires lost by December 31, 2026, resolved by Kalshi staff.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If New York City has less than 120 billionaires in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Forbes Media LLC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Forbes Media LLC",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Forbes Media LLC",
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.27,
      "implied_probability": 0.27,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 16020.382500000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 120,
      "question_id": "CMX-488B308C8F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "billionaires",
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        "nyc",
        "wealth",
        "york city billionaires"
      ],
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        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "reasons": [
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          "screened_at": "2026-08-12",
          "cluster": "other_interpretation"
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PH9KMY3902",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V9L5W42VM6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXNYCBILLIONAIRES-26-115",
      "question": "How many billionaires will New York City lose this year?",
      "description": "At least 8",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 8: Forbes Media LLC's annual billionaires list, compared year-over-year for New York City residents, determines the count of billionaires lost by December 31, 2026, resolved by Kalshi staff.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If New York City has less than 115 billionaires in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Forbes Media LLC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Forbes Media LLC",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Forbes Media LLC",
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.16,
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      "price_as_of": "2026-08-25T11:01:09.506Z",
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      "threshold": 115,
      "question_id": "CMX-A6B81F5AC7",
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      "tags": [
        "billionaires",
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        "nyc",
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        "york city billionaires"
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          "cluster": "other_interpretation"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2BZ87TKW51",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V9L5W42VM6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXNYCBILLIONAIRES-26-110",
      "question": "How many billionaires will New York City lose this year?",
      "description": "At least 13",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 13: Forbes Media LLC's annual billionaires list, compared year-over-year for New York City residents, determines the count of billionaires lost by December 31, 2026, resolved by Kalshi staff.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If New York City has less than 110 billionaires in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Forbes Media LLC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Forbes Media LLC",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
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      "threshold": 110,
      "question_id": "CMX-304CCA7758",
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        "nyc",
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        "york city billionaires"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-J9MMBF1JP4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V9L5W42VM6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXNYCBILLIONAIRES-26-100",
      "question": "How many billionaires will New York City lose this year?",
      "description": "At least 23",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 23: Forbes Media LLC's annual billionaires list, compared year-over-year for New York City residents, determines the count of billionaires lost by December 31, 2026, resolved by Kalshi staff.",
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        "rules_raw": "If New York City has less than 100 billionaires in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Forbes Media LLC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
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    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-V9L5W42VM6",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}