{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-V9L5W42VM6",
  "slug": "kxnycbillionaires-26",
  "question": "Will New York City lose billionaires this year?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "nyc-billionaires",
    "wealth-migration",
    "economic-demographics",
    "2026",
    "usa-domestic"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These four Kalshi markets track the net decline in New York City billionaire count through December 31, 2026. The markets are structured as ascending strike thresholds: at least 3, 8, 13, and 23 billionaires lost. Each higher threshold implies a lower probability, creating a de facto severity curve across the tier set. Forbes Media LLC's annual billionaires list, compared year-over-year for NYC residents, is the authoritative resolution source under Kalshi staff determination.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-KTYK5FCV69",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.31,
    "implied_probability": 0.31
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KTYK5FCV69",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V9L5W42VM6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXNYCBILLIONAIRES-26-120",
      "question": "How many billionaires will New York City lose this year?",
      "description": "At least 3",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 3: Forbes Media LLC's annual billionaires list, compared year-over-year for New York City residents, determines the count of billionaires lost by December 31, 2026, resolved by Kalshi staff.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If New York City has less than 120 billionaires in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Forbes Media LLC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
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            "name": "Forbes Media LLC",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "Forbes Media LLC",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 57,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.31,
      "implied_probability": 0.31,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 17628.1407,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 120,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "billionaires",
        "migration",
        "net-outflow",
        "nyc",
        "york city billionaires"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PH9KMY3902",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V9L5W42VM6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXNYCBILLIONAIRES-26-115",
      "question": "How many billionaires will New York City lose this year?",
      "description": "At least 8",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 8: Forbes Media LLC's annual billionaires list, compared year-over-year for New York City residents, determines the count of billionaires lost by December 31, 2026, resolved by Kalshi staff.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If New York City has less than 115 billionaires in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Forbes Media LLC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "Forbes Media LLC",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
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        "source_of_record": "Forbes Media LLC",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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      "last_price": 0.19,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 2.09,
      "volume_total_usd": 2752.6934,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 115,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "migration",
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        "nyc",
        "york city billionaires"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2BZ87TKW51",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V9L5W42VM6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXNYCBILLIONAIRES-26-110",
      "question": "How many billionaires will New York City lose this year?",
      "description": "At least 13",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 13: Forbes Media LLC's annual billionaires list, compared year-over-year for New York City residents, determines the count of billionaires lost by December 31, 2026, resolved by Kalshi staff.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If New York City has less than 110 billionaires in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "Forbes Media LLC",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-J9MMBF1JP4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V9L5W42VM6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXNYCBILLIONAIRES-26-100",
      "question": "How many billionaires will New York City lose this year?",
      "description": "At least 23",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 23: Forbes Media LLC's annual billionaires list, compared year-over-year for New York City residents, determines the count of billionaires lost by December 31, 2026, resolved by Kalshi staff.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If New York City has less than 100 billionaires in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Forbes Media LLC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
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      "direction": "below",
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-V9L5W42VM6",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}