{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-4CRTK650K8",
  "slug": "kxpahlavivisita",
  "question": "Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "iran-politics",
    "reza-pahlavi",
    "2026-resolution",
    "travel-restrictions",
    "exile-return"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This event tracks whether Reza Pahlavi, the exiled heir to the Iranian throne, will physically enter Iran before January 1, 2027. A single Kalshi binary market prices the outcome, with resolution via Kalshi staff determination based on verified reports of his presence in Iran. No structurally distinct counterpart exists on a second platform, so no cross-platform pricing divergence is observable. Resolution requires confirmed physical entry into Iran by the close date.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-3LZFW3RFJ6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.046,
    "implied_probability": 0.046,
    "as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3LZFW3RFJ6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4CRTK650K8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPAHLAVIVISITA-27JAN01",
      "question": "Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "Yes",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Kalshi staff determination based on verified reports of Reza Pahlavi's physical presence in Iran by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Reza Pahlavi has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Iran before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPhysical presence within the geographic boundaries of the area is required. Flying over without landing, layovers during which the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual or remote appearances, future visit plans, or (unless explicitly specified) presence in adjacent international waters or solely within embassy or consulate grounds do NOT constitute a visit. International airports are considered within the boundaries of their host jurisdiction. A visit that began before the specified time period and is ongoing as of its start does not count; however, if the person departs and re-enters the area during the time period, the re-entry constitutes a new visit and does count.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "The Guardian",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.theguardian.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "The Guardian",
            "url": "https://www.theguardian.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official representatives or offices of <person>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official social media accounts of <person> or their official representatives",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNBC",
            "url": "https://www.cnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in <area>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government sources of <area>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.046,
      "implied_probability": 0.046,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 126.97242,
      "volume_total_usd": 74574.16178,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "iran",
        "reza pahlavi",
        "reza pahlavi iran",
        "visit"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-4CRTK650K8",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}