{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-4CRTK650K8",
  "slug": "kxpahlavivisita",
  "question": "Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "iran-politics",
    "reza-pahlavi",
    "2027-resolution",
    "exile-return",
    "travel-restrictions"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether Reza Pahlavi, the exiled Iranian crown prince, physically enters Iran before January 1, 2027. A single Kalshi binary contract prices the yes/no outcome; no parallel continuous or directional structure exists across platforms. Resolution requires verified reports of his physical presence in Iran, determined by Kalshi staff. No independent oracle mechanism applies here.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-3LZFW3RFJ6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.081,
    "implied_probability": 0.081
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3LZFW3RFJ6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4CRTK650K8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPAHLAVIVISITA-27JAN01",
      "question": "Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "Yes",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Kalshi staff determination based on verified reports of Reza Pahlavi's physical presence in Iran by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Reza Pahlavi has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Iran before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPhysical presence within the geographic boundaries is required - flying over without landing, airport layovers where the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual appearances, presence in international waters, or presence solely within embassy/consulate grounds do NOT count as visits. For cities, official municipal boundaries apply. For states/provinces, official boundaries apply. For countries, internationally recognized borders apply. International airports are considered within their host jurisdiction. Evidence must be reported by at least one Source Agency and may include official announcements, news reports with specific location details, verified photographs/videos at identifiable locations, flight records showing arrival, completed official schedules, or social media posts from official accounts. Visits that began before market issuance do not count. For multiple locations with OR logic, visiting any single location satisfies the criterion. For AND logic, all locations must be visited.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "The Guardian",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.theguardian.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "The Guardian",
            "url": "https://www.theguardian.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official representatives or offices of <person>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official social media accounts of <person> or their official representatives",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNBC",
            "url": "https://www.cnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in <area>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government sources of <area>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.081,
      "implied_probability": 0.081,
      "volume_24h_usd": 379.87056,
      "volume_total_usd": 116009.27892000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "iran",
        "reza pahlavi",
        "reza pahlavi iran",
        "visit"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-4CRTK650K8",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}