{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-PNNRPHYKX4",
  "slug": "kxpanamatraffic-26jun01",
  "question": "Oceangoing transits through Panama Canal, June 2026",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      1100,
      1150
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 900,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 950,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1000,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1050,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1100,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1150,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1200,
        "prob": 0
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "panama-canal",
    "shipping-logistics",
    "monthly-metrics",
    "2026",
    "infrastructure-throughput"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track total oceangoing transits through the Panama Canal in May 2026. Kalshi structures the event as seven binary strike thresholds ranging from 900 to 1200 transits, letting traders express a probability distribution across the transit volume range. Resolution relies on Kalshi staff determination using Panama Canal Authority monthly transit data. The resolve date of September 8, 2026 suggests a lag between data publication and final settlement.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-7YM25Q5Z10",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SD8MF05SH0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PNNRPHYKX4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPANAMATRAFFIC-26JUN01-T900",
      "question": "Will the total number of oceangoing transits through the Panama Canal be above 900 in May 2026?",
      "description": "Above 900",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Panama Canal Authority publishes monthly transit data for May 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-09T14:27:28Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-09T14:27:28Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total number of oceangoing transits through the Panama Canal is above 900 in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nExample: March 2026 report with 1,148 oceangoing transits.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Panama Canal",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://pancanal.com/en/maritime-services/advisory-to-shipping/",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 49.5,
      "volume_total_usd": 322.76,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 900,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "may 2026",
        "panama canal",
        "panama canal oceangoing",
        "shipping",
        "transits"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-51Y9QX19M3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PNNRPHYKX4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPANAMATRAFFIC-26JUN01-T950",
      "question": "Will the total number of oceangoing transits through the Panama Canal be above 950 in May 2026?",
      "description": "Above 950",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Panama Canal Authority publishes monthly transit data for May 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-09T14:27:28Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-09T14:27:28Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total number of oceangoing transits through the Panama Canal is above 950 in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nExample: March 2026 report with 1,148 oceangoing transits.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Panama Canal",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://pancanal.com/en/maritime-services/advisory-to-shipping/",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4877.61,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
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      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "panama canal",
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        "shipping",
        "transits"
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          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
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    },
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TW1KJVZH41",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PNNRPHYKX4",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXPANAMATRAFFIC-26JUN01-T1000",
      "question": "Will the total number of oceangoing transits through the Panama Canal be above 1000 in May 2026?",
      "description": "Above 1000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Panama Canal Authority publishes monthly transit data for May 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-09T14:27:28Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-09T14:27:28Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total number of oceangoing transits through the Panama Canal is above 1000 in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nExample: March 2026 report with 1,148 oceangoing transits.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Panama Canal",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://pancanal.com/en/maritime-services/advisory-to-shipping/",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3268.52,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1000,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "may 2026",
        "panama canal",
        "panama canal oceangoing",
        "shipping",
        "transits"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S6LFL7RFX0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PNNRPHYKX4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPANAMATRAFFIC-26JUN01-T1050",
      "question": "Will the total number of oceangoing transits through the Panama Canal be above 1050 in May 2026?",
      "description": "Above 1050",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Panama Canal Authority publishes monthly transit data for May 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-09T14:27:28Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-09T14:27:28Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total number of oceangoing transits through the Panama Canal is above 1050 in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nExample: March 2026 report with 1,148 oceangoing transits.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Panama Canal",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://pancanal.com/en/maritime-services/advisory-to-shipping/",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
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        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1557.55,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1050,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "may 2026",
        "panama canal",
        "panama canal oceangoing",
        "shipping",
        "transits"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
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          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5XHNV882Y1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PNNRPHYKX4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPANAMATRAFFIC-26JUN01-T1100",
      "question": "Will the total number of oceangoing transits through the Panama Canal be above 1100 in May 2026?",
      "description": "Above 1100",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Panama Canal Authority publishes monthly transit data for May 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-09T14:27:28Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-09T14:27:28Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total number of oceangoing transits through the Panama Canal is above 1100 in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nExample: March 2026 report with 1,148 oceangoing transits.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Panama Canal",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://pancanal.com/en/maritime-services/advisory-to-shipping/",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.95,
      "volume_total_usd": 2133.32,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1100,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "panama canal",
        "panama canal oceangoing",
        "shipping",
        "transits"
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          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7YM25Q5Z10",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PNNRPHYKX4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPANAMATRAFFIC-26JUN01-T1150",
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      "description": "Above 1150",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Panama Canal Authority publishes monthly transit data for May 2026.",
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      "resolve_at": "2026-06-09T14:27:28Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total number of oceangoing transits through the Panama Canal is above 1150 in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nExample: March 2026 report with 1,148 oceangoing transits.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Panama Canal",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
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      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1212.57,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1150,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
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        "panama canal",
        "panama canal oceangoing",
        "shipping",
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          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BQJWTRRL71",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PNNRPHYKX4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPANAMATRAFFIC-26JUN01-T1200",
      "question": "Will the total number of oceangoing transits through the Panama Canal be above 1200 in May 2026?",
      "description": "Above 1200",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Panama Canal Authority publishes monthly transit data for May 2026.",
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      "resolve_at": "2026-06-09T14:27:28Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total number of oceangoing transits through the Panama Canal is above 1200 in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nExample: March 2026 report with 1,148 oceangoing transits.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Panama Canal",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://pancanal.com/en/maritime-services/advisory-to-shipping/",
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        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 57.3,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1200,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "may 2026",
        "panama canal",
        "panama canal oceangoing",
        "shipping",
        "transits"
      ],
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          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SD8MF05SH0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-09T14:27:28Z",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-06-12",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-51Y9QX19M3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-09T14:27:28Z",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-06-12",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TW1KJVZH41",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-09T14:27:28Z",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-06-12",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S6LFL7RFX0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-09T14:27:28Z",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-06-12",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5XHNV882Y1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-09T14:27:28Z",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-06-12",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7YM25Q5Z10",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-09T14:27:28Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-06-12",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BQJWTRRL71",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-09T14:27:28Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-06-12",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-PNNRPHYKX4",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}