{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-K086YCMND2",
  "slug": "kxpayrolls-26jul",
  "question": "U.S. payroll jobs added, July 2026",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      70000,
      80000
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": -25000,
        "prob": 95
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0,
        "prob": 93
      },
      {
        "threshold": 10000,
        "prob": 88
      },
      {
        "threshold": 20000,
        "prob": 87
      },
      {
        "threshold": 30000,
        "prob": 83
      },
      {
        "threshold": 40000,
        "prob": 79
      },
      {
        "threshold": 50000,
        "prob": 73
      },
      {
        "threshold": 60000,
        "prob": 65
      },
      {
        "threshold": 70000,
        "prob": 60
      },
      {
        "threshold": 80000,
        "prob": 45
      },
      {
        "threshold": 90000,
        "prob": 38
      },
      {
        "threshold": 100000,
        "prob": 32
      },
      {
        "threshold": 125000,
        "prob": 23
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "us-labor",
    "jobs-report",
    "economic-indicators",
    "july-2026",
    "monthly-employment"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track U.S. nonfarm payroll job additions for July 2026, sourced from the Bureau of Labor Statistics release due in August 2026. Kalshi structures the event as a strike ladder, pricing cumulative probability across thirteen discrete thresholds from -25,000 to 125,000. The spread between adjacent strikes implies the market's probability mass over each payroll range. Kalshi staff determination governs resolution using the initial BLS release, which is subject to subsequent revision.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-L6ZB554JR7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.45,
    "implied_probability": 0.45,
    "as_of": null
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LBD5F8MG43",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K086YCMND2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26JUL-T-25000",
      "question": "Will above -25000 jobs be added in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above -25,000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above -25,000: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics nonfarm payroll employment report for July 2026, released in August 2026, determines whether the referenced job change threshold is exceeded.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-06T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above -25000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected date of the data release.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "BLS",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "BLS",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.95,
      "implied_probability": 0.95,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 4097.5,
      "volume_total_usd": 26263.21,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": -25000,
      "question_id": "CMX-89E78EE101",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "employment",
        "jobs",
        "july 2026",
        "nonfarm payroll",
        "us nonfarm payroll"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZMK771MVR9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K086YCMND2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26JUL-T0",
      "question": "Will above 0 jobs be added in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics nonfarm payroll employment report for July 2026, released in August 2026, determines whether the referenced job change threshold is exceeded.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-06T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 0 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected date of the data release.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "BLS",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "BLS",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.93,
      "implied_probability": 0.93,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 293.14,
      "volume_total_usd": 2666.31,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0,
      "question_id": "CMX-CFE8AF69E8",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "employment",
        "jobs",
        "july 2026",
        "nonfarm payroll",
        "us nonfarm payroll"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WZ92BYX4X7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K086YCMND2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26JUL-T10000",
      "question": "Will above 10000 jobs be added in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above 10,000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 10,000: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics nonfarm payroll employment report for July 2026, released in August 2026, determines whether the referenced job change threshold is exceeded.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-06T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 10000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected date of the data release.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "BLS",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "BLS",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.88,
      "implied_probability": 0.88,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 273.38,
      "volume_total_usd": 1179.9,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 10000,
      "question_id": "CMX-5718B2FEA5",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "employment",
        "jobs",
        "july 2026",
        "nonfarm payroll",
        "us nonfarm payroll"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VRZ4B6TBM3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K086YCMND2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26JUL-T20000",
      "question": "Will above 20000 jobs be added in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above 20,000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 20,000: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics nonfarm payroll employment report for July 2026, released in August 2026, determines whether the referenced job change threshold is exceeded.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-06T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 20000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected date of the data release.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "BLS",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "BLS",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.87,
      "implied_probability": 0.87,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 271.9,
      "volume_total_usd": 4092.51,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 20000,
      "question_id": "CMX-E9158EA724",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "employment",
        "jobs",
        "july 2026",
        "nonfarm payroll",
        "us nonfarm payroll"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VF01FLTQ97",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K086YCMND2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26JUL-T30000",
      "question": "Will above 30000 jobs be added in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above 30,000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 30,000: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics nonfarm payroll employment report for July 2026, released in August 2026, determines whether the referenced job change threshold is exceeded.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-06T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 30000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected date of the data release.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "BLS",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "BLS",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.83,
      "implied_probability": 0.83,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 851.5,
      "volume_total_usd": 25390.47,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 30000,
      "question_id": "CMX-BBB07A90AC",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "employment",
        "jobs",
        "july 2026",
        "nonfarm payroll",
        "us nonfarm payroll"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-545JL6XFJ1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K086YCMND2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26JUL-T40000",
      "question": "Will above 40000 jobs be added in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above 40,000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 40,000: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics nonfarm payroll employment report for July 2026, released in August 2026, determines whether the referenced job change threshold is exceeded.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-06T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 40000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected date of the data release.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "BLS",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "BLS",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.79,
      "implied_probability": 0.79,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2196.24,
      "volume_total_usd": 24258.69,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 40000,
      "question_id": "CMX-E174EE5DC2",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "employment",
        "jobs",
        "july 2026",
        "nonfarm payroll",
        "us nonfarm payroll"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-520FGPXNX1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K086YCMND2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26JUL-T50000",
      "question": "Will above 50000 jobs be added in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above 50,000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 50,000: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics nonfarm payroll employment report for July 2026, released in August 2026, determines whether the referenced job change threshold is exceeded.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-06T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 50000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected date of the data release.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "BLS",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "BLS",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.73,
      "implied_probability": 0.73,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 435.51,
      "volume_total_usd": 9847.9,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 50000,
      "question_id": "CMX-B1B6947DB0",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "employment",
        "jobs",
        "july 2026",
        "nonfarm payroll",
        "us nonfarm payroll"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-F1NY265VW9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K086YCMND2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26JUL-T60000",
      "question": "Will above 60000 jobs be added in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above 60,000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 60,000: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics nonfarm payroll employment report for July 2026, released in August 2026, determines whether the referenced job change threshold is exceeded.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-06T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 60000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected date of the data release.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "BLS",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "BLS",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
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