{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-NHWMG744L8",
  "slug": "kxpayrolls-26jun",
  "question": "Nonfarm payroll employment change, June 2026",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      100000,
      125000
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": -25000,
        "prob": 98
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0,
        "prob": 95
      },
      {
        "threshold": 10000,
        "prob": 95
      },
      {
        "threshold": 20000,
        "prob": 90
      },
      {
        "threshold": 30000,
        "prob": 95
      },
      {
        "threshold": 40000,
        "prob": 92
      },
      {
        "threshold": 50000,
        "prob": 89
      },
      {
        "threshold": 60000,
        "prob": 79
      },
      {
        "threshold": 70000,
        "prob": 80
      },
      {
        "threshold": 80000,
        "prob": 79
      },
      {
        "threshold": 90000,
        "prob": 75
      },
      {
        "threshold": 100000,
        "prob": 69
      },
      {
        "threshold": 125000,
        "prob": 42
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "us-jobs",
    "monthly-employment",
    "economic-data",
    "labor-market",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Bureau of Labor Statistics nonfarm payroll job additions for June 2026. Kalshi structures the event as a ladder of binary strike thresholds, from -25,000 to 125,000, allowing traders to price the full distribution of outcomes. The spread between adjacent strikes implies a market-derived probability density over the payroll range. Kalshi staff determination governs resolution, referencing the BLS monthly employment situation release expected around July 2, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-CY2HTFM9J9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.42,
    "implied_probability": 0.42
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2RM5M2QSX4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NHWMG744L8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26JUN-T-25000",
      "question": "Will above -25000 jobs be added in June 2026?",
      "description": "Above -25,000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above -25,000: Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report for June 2026, released by BLS, resolves through Kalshi staff determination by October 1, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-02T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above -25000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected date of the data release.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "BLS",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "BLS",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2.92,
      "volume_total_usd": 5596.32,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": -25000,
      "question_id": "CMX-F271DB8621",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "employment",
        "jobs",
        "june-2026",
        "nfp",
        "us",
        "us nonfarm payroll"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GW57HFGZQ7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NHWMG744L8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26JUN-T0",
      "question": "Will above 0 jobs be added in June 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0: Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report for June 2026, released by BLS, resolves through Kalshi staff determination by October 1, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-02T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 0 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected date of the data release.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "BLS",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "BLS",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.95,
      "implied_probability": 0.95,
      "volume_24h_usd": 9.5,
      "volume_total_usd": 4054.85,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0,
      "question_id": "CMX-0792219609",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "employment",
        "jobs",
        "june-2026",
        "nfp",
        "us",
        "us nonfarm payroll"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-B3DQNJGVX1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NHWMG744L8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26JUN-T10000",
      "question": "Will above 10000 jobs be added in June 2026?",
      "description": "Above 10,000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 10,000: Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report for June 2026, released by BLS, resolves through Kalshi staff determination by October 1, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-02T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 10000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected date of the data release.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "BLS",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "BLS",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.95,
      "implied_probability": 0.95,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4079.9,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 10000,
      "question_id": "CMX-E78619E6AE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "employment",
        "jobs",
        "june-2026",
        "nfp",
        "us",
        "us nonfarm payroll"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XSF6BDLWB8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NHWMG744L8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26JUN-T20000",
      "question": "Will above 20000 jobs be added in June 2026?",
      "description": "Above 20,000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 20,000: Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report for June 2026, released by BLS, resolves through Kalshi staff determination by October 1, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-02T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 20000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected date of the data release.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "BLS",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "BLS",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.9,
      "implied_probability": 0.9,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4587.88,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 20000,
      "question_id": "CMX-4D2FB258D5",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "employment",
        "jobs",
        "june-2026",
        "nfp",
        "us",
        "us nonfarm payroll"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-K7NXSQPH60",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NHWMG744L8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26JUN-T30000",
      "question": "Will above 30000 jobs be added in June 2026?",
      "description": "Above 30,000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 30,000: Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report for June 2026, released by BLS, resolves through Kalshi staff determination by October 1, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-02T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 30000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected date of the data release.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "BLS",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "BLS",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.95,
      "implied_probability": 0.95,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.47,
      "volume_total_usd": 3778.62,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 30000,
      "question_id": "CMX-5AB1ED9BD0",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "employment",
        "jobs",
        "june-2026",
        "nfp",
        "us",
        "us nonfarm payroll"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TK0G5ZV5H7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NHWMG744L8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26JUN-T40000",
      "question": "Will above 40000 jobs be added in June 2026?",
      "description": "Above 40,000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 40,000: Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report for June 2026, released by BLS, resolves through Kalshi staff determination by October 1, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-02T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 40000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected date of the data release.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "BLS",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "BLS",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.92,
      "implied_probability": 0.92,
      "volume_24h_usd": 664.72,
      "volume_total_usd": 4360.6,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 40000,
      "question_id": "CMX-7D5FD0A8B9",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "employment",
        "jobs",
        "june-2026",
        "nfp",
        "us",
        "us nonfarm payroll"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0TJ52KWM78",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NHWMG744L8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26JUN-T50000",
      "question": "Will above 50000 jobs be added in June 2026?",
      "description": "Above 50,000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 50,000: Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report for June 2026, released by BLS, resolves through Kalshi staff determination by October 1, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-02T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 50000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected date of the data release.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "BLS",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "BLS",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.89,
      "implied_probability": 0.89,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2495.68,
      "volume_total_usd": 3468.42,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 50000,
      "question_id": "CMX-942DFEFAEA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "employment",
        "jobs",
        "june-2026",
        "nfp",
        "us",
        "us nonfarm payroll"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-H9N97X4JF1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NHWMG744L8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26JUN-T60000",
      "question": "Will above 60000 jobs be added in June 2026?",
      "description": "Above 60,000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 60,000: Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report for June 2026, released by BLS, resolves through Kalshi staff determination by October 1, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-02T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 60000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected date of the data release.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "BLS",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "BLS",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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