{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-MZQH465PC3",
  "slug": "kxpayrolls-26sep",
  "question": "Will the September 2026 jobs report show positive job growth?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "employment",
    "us-labor-market",
    "september-2026",
    "economic-data",
    "monthly-jobs"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Bureau of Labor Statistics nonfarm payroll count for September 2026. Kalshi structures the event as a ladder of 13 binary strike thresholds, ranging from -25,000 to 125,000 jobs; reading implied probabilities across strikes yields a synthetic payroll distribution. Resolution is by Kalshi staff determination, using the BLS employment report released by early January 2027. Markets close October 2, 2026, ahead of the scheduled report.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-LKKLXBJBN4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.39,
    "implied_probability": 0.39
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XTDXGMJWJ5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MZQH465PC3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26SEP-T-25000",
      "question": "Will above -25000 jobs be added in September 2026?",
      "description": "Above -25,000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above -25,000: The Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report for September 2026, released by early January 2027, determines whether the referenced employment outcome occurred, resolved by Kalshi staff.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-02T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above -25000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected date of the data release.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "BLS",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "BLS",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.93,
      "implied_probability": 0.93,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 99.51,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": -25000,
      "question_id": "CMX-FCD9B771BC",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "employment",
        "jobs",
        "labor",
        "nonfarm payrolls",
        "us nonfarm payroll"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-G9QJPG8XH7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MZQH465PC3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26SEP-T0",
      "question": "Will above 0 jobs be added in September 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0: The Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report for September 2026, released by early January 2027, determines whether the referenced employment outcome occurred, resolved by Kalshi staff.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-02T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 0 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected date of the data release.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "BLS",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "BLS",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.83,
      "implied_probability": 0.83,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 170.15,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0,
      "question_id": "CMX-7BC86EA64F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "employment",
        "jobs",
        "labor",
        "nonfarm payrolls",
        "us nonfarm payroll"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XFPJV9F9B5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MZQH465PC3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26SEP-T10000",
      "question": "Will above 10000 jobs be added in September 2026?",
      "description": "Above 10,000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 10,000: The Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report for September 2026, released by early January 2027, determines whether the referenced employment outcome occurred, resolved by Kalshi staff.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-02T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 10000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected date of the data release.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "BLS",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "BLS",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.85,
      "implied_probability": 0.85,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1533.5955,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 10000,
      "question_id": "CMX-BFE8693422",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "employment",
        "jobs",
        "labor",
        "nonfarm payrolls",
        "us nonfarm payroll"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-X0B22MV4L9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MZQH465PC3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26SEP-T20000",
      "question": "Will above 20000 jobs be added in September 2026?",
      "description": "Above 20,000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 20,000: The Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report for September 2026, released by early January 2027, determines whether the referenced employment outcome occurred, resolved by Kalshi staff.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-02T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 20000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected date of the data release.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "BLS",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "BLS",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.8,
      "implied_probability": 0.8,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 48.800000000000004,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 20000,
      "question_id": "CMX-D8A7F0AE34",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "employment",
        "jobs",
        "labor",
        "nonfarm payrolls",
        "us nonfarm payroll"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5VXDW63Q09",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MZQH465PC3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26SEP-T30000",
      "question": "Will above 30000 jobs be added in September 2026?",
      "description": "Above 30,000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 30,000: The Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report for September 2026, released by early January 2027, determines whether the referenced employment outcome occurred, resolved by Kalshi staff.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-02T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 30000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected date of the data release.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "BLS",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "BLS",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.8,
      "implied_probability": 0.8,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 532,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 30000,
      "question_id": "CMX-C6BF47A942",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "employment",
        "jobs",
        "labor",
        "nonfarm payrolls",
        "us nonfarm payroll"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VFBPXKV6H2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MZQH465PC3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26SEP-T40000",
      "question": "Will above 40000 jobs be added in September 2026?",
      "description": "Above 40,000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 40,000: The Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report for September 2026, released by early January 2027, determines whether the referenced employment outcome occurred, resolved by Kalshi staff.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-02T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 40000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected date of the data release.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "BLS",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "BLS",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.78,
      "implied_probability": 0.78,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 295.9242,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 40000,
      "question_id": "CMX-F903F1DC82",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "employment",
        "jobs",
        "labor",
        "nonfarm payrolls",
        "us nonfarm payroll"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DD103WPCP8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MZQH465PC3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26SEP-T50000",
      "question": "Will above 50000 jobs be added in September 2026?",
      "description": "Above 50,000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 50,000: The Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report for September 2026, released by early January 2027, determines whether the referenced employment outcome occurred, resolved by Kalshi staff.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-02T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 50000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected date of the data release.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "BLS",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "BLS",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.68,
      "implied_probability": 0.68,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 190.2844,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 50000,
      "question_id": "CMX-97970F3565",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "employment",
        "jobs",
        "labor",
        "nonfarm payrolls",
        "us nonfarm payroll"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XWQXJ0V524",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MZQH465PC3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26SEP-T60000",
      "question": "Will above 60000 jobs be added in September 2026?",
      "description": "Above 60,000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 60,000: The Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report for September 2026, released by early January 2027, determines whether the referenced employment outcome occurred, resolved by Kalshi staff.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-02T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 60000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected date of the data release.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "BLS",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "BLS",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.7,
      "implied_probability": 0.7,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 318.899,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 60000,
      "question_id": "CMX-88FAD153DE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "employment",
        "jobs",
        "labor",
        "nonfarm payrolls",
        "us nonfarm payroll"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2TYW34H5L8",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26SEP-T100000",
      "question": "Will above 100000 jobs be added in September 2026?",
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        "rules_raw": "If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 100000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected date of the data release.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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