{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-GSFKDKFXG2",
  "slug": "kxpcecore-26jun",
  "question": "The rate of core PCE inflation in June 2026",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      0.1,
      0.2
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 0,
        "prob": 98
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.1,
        "prob": 72
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.2,
        "prob": 4
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.3,
        "prob": 2
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.4,
        "prob": 2
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "core-pce",
    "inflation",
    "us-economics",
    "2026",
    "monthly-metric"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Bureau of Economic Analysis monthly core PCE print for June 2026. Kalshi structures the event as five binary strike thresholds at 0.0%, 0.1%, 0.2%, 0.3%, and 0.4%, each asking whether the month-over-month rate exceeds that level. Together they form an implied probability distribution over the June 2026 core PCE outcome. Resolution follows Kalshi staff determination against the BEA release due by August 6, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-PD0V35N355",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.04,
    "implied_probability": 0.04
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TXK30TSH07",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GSFKDKFXG2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPCECORE-26JUN-T0.0",
      "question": "Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.0% in June 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.0%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.0%: The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the core PCE inflation rate for June 2026 by August 6, 2026, resolving whether the monthly rate exceeded 0.1%.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-30T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-06T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the (single-decimal) month-over-month percent change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy is above 0.0% in June 2026 according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will close at 8:25 AM ET on the expected release of the data. It will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of the data, or one week after the expected release of the data.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
            "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.97,
      "implied_probability": 0.97,
      "volume_24h_usd": 60.5474,
      "volume_total_usd": 1662.5509,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0,
      "question_id": "CMX-AF6B1B756A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core pce",
        "inflation",
        "june 2026",
        "pce"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PVY0PV5G24",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GSFKDKFXG2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPCECORE-26JUN-T0.1",
      "question": "Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.1% in June 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.1%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.1%: The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the core PCE inflation rate for June 2026 by August 6, 2026, resolving whether the monthly rate exceeded 0.1%.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-30T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-06T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the (single-decimal) month-over-month percent change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy is above 0.1% in June 2026 according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will close at 8:25 AM ET on the expected release of the data. It will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of the data, or one week after the expected release of the data.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
            "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.73,
      "implied_probability": 0.73,
      "volume_24h_usd": 116.4496,
      "volume_total_usd": 8628.943099999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.1,
      "question_id": "CMX-022EF3F01D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core pce",
        "inflation",
        "june 2026",
        "pce"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PD0V35N355",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GSFKDKFXG2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPCECORE-26JUN-T0.2",
      "question": "Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.2% in June 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.2%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.2%: The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the core PCE inflation rate for June 2026 by August 6, 2026, resolving whether the monthly rate exceeded 0.1%.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-30T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-06T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the (single-decimal) month-over-month percent change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy is above 0.2% in June 2026 according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will close at 8:25 AM ET on the expected release of the data. It will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of the data, or one week after the expected release of the data.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
            "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.04,
      "implied_probability": 0.04,
      "volume_24h_usd": 123.5476,
      "volume_total_usd": 2510.8908,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-ECCC7974BF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core pce",
        "inflation",
        "june 2026",
        "pce"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WXN412V6S8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GSFKDKFXG2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPCECORE-26JUN-T0.3",
      "question": "Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.3% in June 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.3%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.3%: The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the core PCE inflation rate for June 2026 by August 6, 2026, resolving whether the monthly rate exceeded 0.1%.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-30T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-06T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the (single-decimal) month-over-month percent change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy is above 0.3% in June 2026 according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will close at 8:25 AM ET on the expected release of the data. It will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of the data, or one week after the expected release of the data.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
            "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.03,
      "implied_probability": 0.03,
      "volume_24h_usd": 37.8174,
      "volume_total_usd": 876.4194,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.3,
      "question_id": "CMX-C1BB57546A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core pce",
        "inflation",
        "june 2026",
        "pce"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-T78PRMZVJ5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GSFKDKFXG2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPCECORE-26JUN-T0.4",
      "question": "Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.4% in June 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.4%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.4%: The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the core PCE inflation rate for June 2026 by August 6, 2026, resolving whether the monthly rate exceeded 0.1%.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-30T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-06T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the (single-decimal) month-over-month percent change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy is above 0.4% in June 2026 according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will close at 8:25 AM ET on the expected release of the data. It will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of the data, or one week after the expected release of the data.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
            "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.02,
      "implied_probability": 0.02,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 55.26,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.4,
      "question_id": "CMX-6AF7477E89",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core pce",
        "inflation",
        "june 2026",
        "pce"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-GSFKDKFXG2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}