{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-PG9RLBJ7F1",
  "slug": "kxpcecore-26may",
  "question": "Core PCE inflation rate month-over-month, May 2026",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      0.2,
      0.3
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 0,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.1,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.2,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.3,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
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        "prob": 0
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "core-pce",
    "inflation-us",
    "economic-data",
    "may-2026",
    "monthly-rate"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the month-over-month change in core PCE for May 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis is the authoritative source; Kalshi staff determine resolution. Five binary strike thresholds span 0.0% through 0.4%, forming an implied probability distribution over the print. Resolution requires BEA publication by July 2, 2026, per Kalshi staff determination.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-YWXVL6FQY8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RKFR0M52J8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PG9RLBJ7F1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPCECORE-26MAY-T0.0",
      "question": "Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.0% in May 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.0%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.0%: Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the core PCE inflation rate for May 2026 by July 2, 2026; Kalshi staff determines whether the monthly rate exceeds the threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-25T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-25T12:25:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the (single-decimal) month-over-month percent change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy is above 0.0% in May 2026 according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will close at 8:25 AM ET on the expected release of the data. It will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of the data, or one week after the expected release of the data.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
            "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 302.94,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0,
      "question_id": "CMX-39CA46E250",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core pce inflation",
        "inflation",
        "may 2026",
        "pce"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPCECORE-26MAY-T0.1",
      "question": "Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.1% in May 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.1%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.1%: Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the core PCE inflation rate for May 2026 by July 2, 2026; Kalshi staff determines whether the monthly rate exceeds the threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-25T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-25T12:25:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
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        "rules_raw": "If the (single-decimal) month-over-month percent change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy is above 0.1% in May 2026 according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will close at 8:25 AM ET on the expected release of the data. It will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of the data, or one week after the expected release of the data.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
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        "sources": [
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            "name": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
            "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 1,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1771.54,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.1,
      "question_id": "CMX-F1C96B4389",
      "also_on": null,
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        "may 2026",
        "pce"
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        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XXZTKBHPP5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PG9RLBJ7F1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPCECORE-26MAY-T0.2",
      "question": "Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.2% in May 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.2%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.2%: Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the core PCE inflation rate for May 2026 by July 2, 2026; Kalshi staff determines whether the monthly rate exceeds the threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-25T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-25T12:25:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the (single-decimal) month-over-month percent change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy is above 0.2% in May 2026 according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will close at 8:25 AM ET on the expected release of the data. It will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of the data, or one week after the expected release of the data.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
            "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
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        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 69.41,
      "volume_total_usd": 4462.53,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-8AC188D3A9",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core pce inflation",
        "inflation",
        "may 2026",
        "pce"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YWXVL6FQY8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PG9RLBJ7F1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPCECORE-26MAY-T0.3",
      "question": "Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.3% in May 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.3%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.3%: Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the core PCE inflation rate for May 2026 by July 2, 2026; Kalshi staff determines whether the monthly rate exceeds the threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-25T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-25T12:25:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the (single-decimal) month-over-month percent change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy is above 0.3% in May 2026 according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will close at 8:25 AM ET on the expected release of the data. It will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of the data, or one week after the expected release of the data.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
            "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
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      "volume_24h_usd": 46.28,
      "volume_total_usd": 7572.73,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.3,
      "question_id": "CMX-252AC36235",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "inflation",
        "may 2026",
        "pce"
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LM73089XS6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PG9RLBJ7F1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPCECORE-26MAY-T0.4",
      "question": "Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.4% in May 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.4%",
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      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.4%: Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the core PCE inflation rate for May 2026 by July 2, 2026; Kalshi staff determines whether the monthly rate exceeds the threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-25T12:25:00Z",
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-PG9RLBJ7F1",
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}