{ "_notice": { "type": "free_key_offer", "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.", "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/", "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change." }, "event_id": "CM-EVT-RKB4074MH9", "slug": "kxperupresmov-26jun07", "question": "Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 0% and 3%?", "category": "politics", "event_type": "BINARY", "ladder_distribution": null, "tags": [ "politics", "peru-politics", "presidential-runoff", "electoral-margin", "keiko-fujimori", "2027-election" ], "catalyst_types": [], "catalyst_dates": [], "editorial_notes": "These markets track the margin of victory in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff, closing June 7, 2027. Kalshi structures both candidates symmetrically: discrete margin tiers (0-3%, 3-6%, 6-9%, 9-12%, above 12%) for Keiko Fujimori and Roberto Sánchez separately. Pricing Fujimori tiers alongside Sánchez tiers implicitly prices each candidate's win probability across the full spread. Resolution follows Kalshi staff determination using certified results from Peru's official election authority, the Jurado Nacional de Elecciones.", "venues_covered": [ "kalshi" ], "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-R163SKRV14", "current_primary_mark": { "last_price": 1, "implied_probability": 1 }, "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00", "markets": [ { "market_id": "CM-MKT-QN5S6SK9K4", "event_id": "CM-EVT-RKB4074MH9", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXPERUPRESMOV-26JUN07-KFUJ-P56", "question": "Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be above 12%?", "description": "Keiko Fujimori, ≥12%", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Keiko Fujimori, ≥12%: Peru's official election authority certifies the margin of victory in the 2026 presidential runoff; Kalshi staff determines outcome by June 7, 2027.", "close_at": "2026-07-03T19:29:17Z", "resolve_at": "2026-07-03T19:29:17Z", "status": "resolved", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff falls within 12% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Keiko Fujimori minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Keiko Fujimori if Keiko Fujimori wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Keiko Fujimori loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Keiko Fujimori minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Keiko Fujimori if Keiko Fujimori wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Keiko Fujimori loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Keiko Fujimori minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Keiko Fujimori wins, or the electoral votes received by Keiko Fujimori minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Keiko Fujimori does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Keiko Fujimori runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Keiko Fujimori will be summed.\n\nIf Keiko Fujimori wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Keiko Fujimori loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Keiko Fujimori ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Keiko Fujimori is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "sources": [ { "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 80, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 6 }, "last_price": 0, "implied_probability": 0, "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 34.53, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "2026", "election", "fujimori", "keiko fujimori margin", "peru", "runoff" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-9J3TRVQS64", "event_id": "CM-EVT-RKB4074MH9", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXPERUPRESMOV-26JUN07-RALI-P10", "question": "Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 9% and 12%?", "description": "Keiko Fujimori, 9-12%", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Keiko Fujimori, 9-12%: Peru's official election authority certifies the margin of victory in the 2026 presidential runoff; Kalshi staff determines outcome by June 7, 2027.", "close_at": "2026-07-03T19:29:17Z", "resolve_at": "2026-07-03T19:29:17Z", "status": "resolved", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff falls within 9% to 12%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Keiko Fujimori minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Keiko Fujimori if Keiko Fujimori wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Keiko Fujimori loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Keiko Fujimori minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Keiko Fujimori if Keiko Fujimori wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Keiko Fujimori loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Keiko Fujimori minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Keiko Fujimori wins, or the electoral votes received by Keiko Fujimori minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Keiko Fujimori does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Keiko Fujimori runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Keiko Fujimori will be summed.\n\nIf Keiko Fujimori wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Keiko Fujimori loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Keiko Fujimori ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Keiko Fujimori is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "sources": [ { "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 80, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 6 }, "last_price": 0, "implied_probability": 0, "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 157.68, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "2026", "election", "fujimori", "keiko fujimori margin", "peru", "runoff" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-M8WL8C75P4", "event_id": "CM-EVT-RKB4074MH9", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXPERUPRESMOV-26JUN07-KFUJ-P7", "question": "Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 6% and 9%?", "description": "Keiko Fujimori, 6-9%", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Keiko Fujimori, 6-9%: Peru's official election authority certifies the margin of victory in the 2026 presidential runoff; Kalshi staff determines outcome by June 7, 2027.", "close_at": "2026-07-03T19:29:17Z", "resolve_at": "2026-07-03T19:29:17Z", "status": "resolved", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff falls within 6% to 9%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Keiko Fujimori minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Keiko Fujimori if Keiko Fujimori wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Keiko Fujimori loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Keiko Fujimori minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Keiko Fujimori if Keiko Fujimori wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Keiko Fujimori loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Keiko Fujimori minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Keiko Fujimori wins, or the electoral votes received by Keiko Fujimori minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Keiko Fujimori does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Keiko Fujimori runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Keiko Fujimori will be summed.\n\nIf Keiko Fujimori wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Keiko Fujimori loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Keiko Fujimori ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Keiko Fujimori is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "sources": [ { "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 80, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 6 }, "last_price": 0, "implied_probability": 0, "volume_24h_usd": 0.4, "volume_total_usd": 46.55, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "2026", "election", "fujimori", "keiko fujimori margin", "peru", "runoff" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-8BR4WW7RD1", "event_id": "CM-EVT-RKB4074MH9", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXPERUPRESMOV-26JUN07-KFUJ-P4", "question": "Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 3% and 6%?", "description": "Keiko Fujimori, 3-6%", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Keiko Fujimori, 3-6%: Peru's official election authority certifies the margin of victory in the 2026 presidential runoff; Kalshi staff determines outcome by June 7, 2027.", "close_at": "2026-07-03T19:29:17Z", "resolve_at": "2026-07-03T19:29:17Z", "status": "resolved", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff falls within 3% to 6%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Keiko Fujimori minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Keiko Fujimori if Keiko Fujimori wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Keiko Fujimori loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Keiko Fujimori minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Keiko Fujimori if Keiko Fujimori wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Keiko Fujimori loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Keiko Fujimori minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Keiko Fujimori wins, or the electoral votes received by Keiko Fujimori minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Keiko Fujimori does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Keiko Fujimori runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Keiko Fujimori will be summed.\n\nIf Keiko Fujimori wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Keiko Fujimori loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Keiko Fujimori ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Keiko Fujimori is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "sources": [ { "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 80, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 6 }, "last_price": 0, "implied_probability": 0, "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 169.09, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "2026", "election", "fujimori", "keiko fujimori margin", "peru", "runoff" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-R163SKRV14", "event_id": "CM-EVT-RKB4074MH9", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXPERUPRESMOV-26JUN07-KFUJ-P1", "question": "Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 0% and 3%?", "description": "Keiko Fujimori, 0-3%", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Keiko Fujimori, 0-3%: Peru's official election authority certifies the margin of victory in the 2026 presidential runoff; Kalshi staff determines outcome by June 7, 2027.", "close_at": "2026-07-03T19:29:17Z", "resolve_at": "2026-07-03T19:29:17Z", "status": "resolved", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff falls within 0% to 3%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Keiko Fujimori minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Keiko Fujimori if Keiko Fujimori wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Keiko Fujimori loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Keiko Fujimori minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Keiko Fujimori if Keiko Fujimori wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Keiko Fujimori loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Keiko Fujimori minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Keiko Fujimori wins, or the electoral votes received by Keiko Fujimori minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Keiko Fujimori does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Keiko Fujimori runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Keiko Fujimori will be summed.\n\nIf Keiko Fujimori wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Keiko Fujimori loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Keiko Fujimori ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Keiko Fujimori is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "sources": [ { "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 80, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 6 }, "last_price": 1, "implied_probability": 1, "volume_24h_usd": 7.76, "volume_total_usd": 12600.4, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "2026", "election", "fujimori", "keiko fujimori margin", "peru", "runoff" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-JGX0S0N1G7", "event_id": "CM-EVT-RKB4074MH9", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXPERUPRESMOV-26JUN07-RSAN-P1", "question": "Will the margin of victory for Roberto Sánchez in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 0% and 3%?", "description": "Roberto Sánchez, 0-3%", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Roberto Sánchez, 0-3%: Peru's official election authority certifies the margin of victory in the 2026 presidential runoff; Kalshi staff determines outcome by June 7, 2027.", "close_at": "2026-07-03T19:29:17Z", "resolve_at": "2026-07-03T19:29:17Z", "status": "resolved", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Roberto Sánchez in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff falls within 0% to 3%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Roberto Sánchez minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Roberto Sánchez if Roberto Sánchez wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Roberto Sánchez loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Roberto Sánchez minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Roberto Sánchez if Roberto Sánchez wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Roberto Sánchez loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Roberto Sánchez minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Roberto Sánchez wins, or the electoral votes received by Roberto Sánchez minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Roberto Sánchez does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Roberto Sánchez runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Roberto Sánchez will be summed.\n\nIf Roberto Sánchez wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Roberto Sánchez loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Roberto Sánchez ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Roberto Sánchez is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "sources": [ { "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 80, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 6 }, "last_price": 0, "implied_probability": 0, "volume_24h_usd": 40.54, "volume_total_usd": 607.39, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "2026", "election", "peru", "roberto nchez margin", "runoff", "sánchez" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-LFTNQJZD84", "event_id": "CM-EVT-RKB4074MH9", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXPERUPRESMOV-26JUN07-RSAN-P4", "question": "Will the margin of victory for Roberto Sánchez in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 3% and 6%?", "description": "Roberto Sánchez, 3-6%", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Roberto Sánchez, 3-6%: Peru's official election authority certifies the margin of victory in the 2026 presidential runoff; Kalshi staff determines outcome by June 7, 2027.", "close_at": "2026-07-03T19:29:17Z", "resolve_at": "2026-07-03T19:29:17Z", "status": "resolved", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Roberto Sánchez in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff falls within 3% to 6%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Roberto Sánchez minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Roberto Sánchez if Roberto Sánchez wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Roberto Sánchez loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Roberto Sánchez minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Roberto Sánchez if Roberto Sánchez wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Roberto Sánchez loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Roberto Sánchez minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Roberto Sánchez wins, or the electoral votes received by Roberto Sánchez minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Roberto Sánchez does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Roberto Sánchez runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Roberto Sánchez will be summed.\n\nIf Roberto Sánchez wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Roberto Sánchez loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Roberto Sánchez ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Roberto Sánchez is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "sources": [ { "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 80, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 6 }, "last_price": 0, "implied_probability": 0, "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 199.21, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "2026", "election", "peru", "roberto nchez margin", "runoff", "sánchez" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-9Z2LMTM4J2", "event_id": "CM-EVT-RKB4074MH9", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXPERUPRESMOV-26JUN07-RSAN-P7", "question": "Will the margin of victory for Roberto Sánchez in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 6% and 9%?", "description": "Roberto Sánchez, 6-9%", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Roberto Sánchez, 6-9%: Peru's official election authority certifies the margin of victory in the 2026 presidential runoff; Kalshi staff determines outcome by June 7, 2027.", "close_at": "2026-07-03T19:29:17Z", "resolve_at": "2026-07-03T19:29:17Z", "status": "resolved", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Roberto Sánchez in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff falls within 6% to 9%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Roberto Sánchez minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Roberto Sánchez if Roberto Sánchez wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Roberto Sánchez loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Roberto Sánchez minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Roberto Sánchez if Roberto Sánchez wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Roberto Sánchez loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Roberto Sánchez minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Roberto Sánchez wins, or the electoral votes received by Roberto Sánchez minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Roberto Sánchez does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Roberto Sánchez runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Roberto Sánchez will be summed.\n\nIf Roberto Sánchez wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Roberto Sánchez loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Roberto Sánchez ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Roberto Sánchez is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "sources": [ { "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 80, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 6 }, "last_price": 0, "implied_probability": 0, "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 20.14, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "2026", "election", "peru", "roberto nchez margin", "runoff", "sánchez" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-YYW3C8XSY8", "event_id": "CM-EVT-RKB4074MH9", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXPERUPRESMOV-26JUN07-RSAN-P10", "question": "Will the margin of victory for Roberto Sánchez in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 9% and 12%?", "description": "Roberto Sánchez, 9-12%", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Roberto Sánchez, 9-12%: Peru's official election authority certifies the margin of victory in the 2026 presidential runoff; Kalshi staff determines outcome by June 7, 2027.", "close_at": "2026-07-03T19:29:17Z", "resolve_at": "2026-07-03T19:29:17Z", "status": "resolved", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Roberto Sánchez in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff falls within 9% to 12%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Roberto Sánchez minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Roberto Sánchez if Roberto Sánchez wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Roberto Sánchez loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Roberto Sánchez minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Roberto Sánchez if Roberto Sánchez wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Roberto Sánchez loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Roberto Sánchez minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Roberto Sánchez wins, or the electoral votes received by Roberto Sánchez minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Roberto Sánchez does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Roberto Sánchez runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Roberto Sánchez will be summed.\n\nIf Roberto Sánchez wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Roberto Sánchez loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Roberto Sánchez ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Roberto Sánchez is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "sources": [ { "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 80, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 6 }, "last_price": 0, "implied_probability": 0, "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 9.33, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "2026", "election", "peru", "roberto nchez margin", "runoff", "sánchez" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-9TTB3NYKC9", "event_id": "CM-EVT-RKB4074MH9", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXPERUPRESMOV-26JUN07-RSAN-P56", "question": "Will the margin of victory for Roberto Sánchez in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be above 12%?", "description": "Roberto Sánchez, ≥12%", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Roberto Sánchez, ≥12%: Peru's official election authority certifies the margin of victory in the 2026 presidential runoff; Kalshi staff determines outcome by June 7, 2027.", "close_at": "2026-07-03T19:29:17Z", "resolve_at": "2026-07-03T19:29:17Z", "status": "resolved", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Roberto Sánchez in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff falls within 12% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Roberto Sánchez minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Roberto Sánchez if Roberto Sánchez wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Roberto Sánchez loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Roberto Sánchez minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Roberto Sánchez if Roberto Sánchez wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Roberto Sánchez loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Roberto Sánchez minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Roberto Sánchez wins, or the electoral votes received by Roberto Sánchez minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Roberto Sánchez does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Roberto Sánchez runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Roberto Sánchez will be summed.\n\nIf Roberto Sánchez wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Roberto Sánchez loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Roberto Sánchez ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Roberto Sánchez is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "sources": [ { "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 80, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 6 }, "last_price": 0, "implied_probability": 0, "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 19.6, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "2026", "election", "peru", "roberto nchez margin", "runoff", "sánchez" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] } ], "resolution_log": [ { "market_id": "CM-MKT-QN5S6SK9K4", "platform": "kalshi", "event_type": "resolved", "outcome": "NO", "resolved_at": "2026-07-03T19:59:24.537203Z", "deadline_at": null, "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement", "final_price": 0, "recorded_at": "2026-07-23", "source": "platform_api", "source_ref": null }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-9J3TRVQS64", "platform": "kalshi", "event_type": "resolved", "outcome": "NO", "resolved_at": "2026-07-03T19:59:24.537203Z", "deadline_at": null, "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement", "final_price": 0, "recorded_at": "2026-07-23", "source": "platform_api", "source_ref": null }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-M8WL8C75P4", "platform": "kalshi", "event_type": "resolved", "outcome": "NO", "resolved_at": "2026-07-03T19:59:24.537203Z", "deadline_at": null, "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement", "final_price": 0, "recorded_at": "2026-07-23", "source": "platform_api", "source_ref": null }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-8BR4WW7RD1", "platform": "kalshi", "event_type": "resolved", "outcome": "NO", "resolved_at": "2026-07-03T19:59:24.537203Z", "deadline_at": null, "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement", "final_price": 0, "recorded_at": "2026-07-23", "source": "platform_api", "source_ref": null }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-R163SKRV14", "platform": "kalshi", "event_type": "resolved", "outcome": "YES", "resolved_at": "2026-07-03T19:59:24.537203Z", "deadline_at": null, "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement", "final_price": 1, "recorded_at": "2026-07-23", "source": "platform_api", "source_ref": null }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-JGX0S0N1G7", "platform": "kalshi", "event_type": "resolved", "outcome": "NO", "resolved_at": "2026-07-03T19:59:24.537203Z", "deadline_at": null, "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement", "final_price": 0, "recorded_at": "2026-07-23", "source": "platform_api", "source_ref": null }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-LFTNQJZD84", "platform": "kalshi", "event_type": "resolved", "outcome": "NO", "resolved_at": "2026-07-03T19:59:24.537203Z", "deadline_at": null, "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement", "final_price": 0, "recorded_at": "2026-07-23", "source": "platform_api", "source_ref": null }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-9Z2LMTM4J2", "platform": "kalshi", "event_type": "resolved", "outcome": "NO", "resolved_at": "2026-07-03T19:59:24.537203Z", "deadline_at": null, "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement", "final_price": 0, "recorded_at": "2026-07-23", "source": "platform_api", "source_ref": null }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-YYW3C8XSY8", "platform": "kalshi", "event_type": "resolved", "outcome": "NO", "resolved_at": "2026-07-03T19:59:24.537203Z", "deadline_at": null, "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement", "final_price": 0, "recorded_at": "2026-07-23", "source": "platform_api", "source_ref": null }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-9TTB3NYKC9", "platform": "kalshi", "event_type": "resolved", "outcome": "NO", "resolved_at": "2026-07-03T19:59:24.537203Z", "deadline_at": null, "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement", "final_price": 0, "recorded_at": "2026-07-23", "source": "platform_api", "source_ref": null } ], "_provenance": { "source": "clearmarket.fyi", "ref": "CM-EVT-RKB4074MH9", "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi" } }