{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-XLQBNQWBX5",
  "slug": "kxpma-28janzyn",
  "question": "Philip Morris International Inc report million zyn u.s. shipment volume in 2026",
  "category": "companies",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      760000000,
      780000000
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 680000000,
        "prob": 93
      },
      {
        "threshold": 700000000,
        "prob": 90
      },
      {
        "threshold": 720000000,
        "prob": 85
      },
      {
        "threshold": 740000000,
        "prob": 72
      },
      {
        "threshold": 760000000,
        "prob": 68
      },
      {
        "threshold": 780000000,
        "prob": 40
      },
      {
        "threshold": 800000000,
        "prob": 32
      },
      {
        "threshold": 820000000,
        "prob": 18
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "companies",
    "zyn-nicotine-pouches",
    "philip-morris-international",
    "us-shipment-volume",
    "consumer-packaged-goods",
    "tobacco-alternatives"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Philip Morris International's full-year 2026 U.S. Zyn nicotine pouch shipment volume. Eight binary strike thresholds span 680 million to 820 million cans, in 20-million-unit increments. The implied distribution across strikes reveals the market's consensus range for annual volume. Resolution relies on Kalshi staff determination referencing PMI's reported figures as aggregated by Fiscal.ai.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-41L3HSMDN6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.37,
    "implied_probability": 0.37
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3D92G6C647",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XLQBNQWBX5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPMA-28JANZYN-680000000",
      "question": "Will Philip Morris International Inc report Above 680 million zyn u.s. shipment volume in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 680 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 680 million: Philip Morris International's reported U.S. Zyn shipment volume for 2026, as published by Fiscal.ai and determined by Kalshi staff by March 31, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Philip Morris International Inc reports Above 680000000 zyn u.s. shipment volume in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
            "url": "https://fiscal.ai",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.93,
      "implied_probability": 0.93,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1079.1720000000003,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 680000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-70A07E99CF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "nicotine",
        "pmi",
        "shipments",
        "zyn",
        "zyn us shipment"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZXBNJCLXZ1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XLQBNQWBX5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPMA-28JANZYN-700000000",
      "question": "Will Philip Morris International Inc report Above 700 million zyn u.s. shipment volume in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 700 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 700 million: Philip Morris International's reported U.S. Zyn shipment volume for 2026, as published by Fiscal.ai and determined by Kalshi staff by March 31, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Philip Morris International Inc reports Above 700000000 zyn u.s. shipment volume in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
            "url": "https://fiscal.ai",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.9,
      "implied_probability": 0.9,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 434.7,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 700000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-F9716B949B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "nicotine",
        "pmi",
        "shipments",
        "zyn",
        "zyn us shipment"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NWZ97B4KT9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XLQBNQWBX5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPMA-28JANZYN-720000000",
      "question": "Will Philip Morris International Inc report Above 720 million zyn u.s. shipment volume in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 720 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 720 million: Philip Morris International's reported U.S. Zyn shipment volume for 2026, as published by Fiscal.ai and determined by Kalshi staff by March 31, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Philip Morris International Inc reports Above 720000000 zyn u.s. shipment volume in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
            "url": "https://fiscal.ai",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.85,
      "implied_probability": 0.85,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1283.5,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 720000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-35E2CD046C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "nicotine",
        "pmi",
        "shipments",
        "zyn",
        "zyn us shipment"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2QK5CBBJ25",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XLQBNQWBX5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPMA-28JANZYN-740000000",
      "question": "Will Philip Morris International Inc report Above 740 million zyn u.s. shipment volume in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 740 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 740 million: Philip Morris International's reported U.S. Zyn shipment volume for 2026, as published by Fiscal.ai and determined by Kalshi staff by March 31, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Philip Morris International Inc reports Above 740000000 zyn u.s. shipment volume in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
            "url": "https://fiscal.ai",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.72,
      "implied_probability": 0.72,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 338.4,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 740000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-8B75238198",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "nicotine",
        "pmi",
        "shipments",
        "zyn",
        "zyn us shipment"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RK1MDMMMZ9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XLQBNQWBX5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPMA-28JANZYN-760000000",
      "question": "Will Philip Morris International Inc report Above 760 million zyn u.s. shipment volume in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 760 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 760 million: Philip Morris International's reported U.S. Zyn shipment volume for 2026, as published by Fiscal.ai and determined by Kalshi staff by March 31, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Philip Morris International Inc reports Above 760000000 zyn u.s. shipment volume in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
            "url": "https://fiscal.ai",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.68,
      "implied_probability": 0.68,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 67.25880000000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 760000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-97C942F941",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "nicotine",
        "pmi",
        "shipments",
        "zyn",
        "zyn us shipment"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-41L3HSMDN6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XLQBNQWBX5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPMA-28JANZYN-780000000",
      "question": "Will Philip Morris International Inc report Above 780 million zyn u.s. shipment volume in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 780 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 780 million: Philip Morris International's reported U.S. Zyn shipment volume for 2026, as published by Fiscal.ai and determined by Kalshi staff by March 31, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Philip Morris International Inc reports Above 780000000 zyn u.s. shipment volume in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
            "url": "https://fiscal.ai",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.37,
      "implied_probability": 0.37,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1316.6043,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 780000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-550D068CEA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "nicotine",
        "pmi",
        "shipments",
        "zyn",
        "zyn us shipment"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-94B0LJC615",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XLQBNQWBX5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPMA-28JANZYN-800000000",
      "question": "Will Philip Morris International Inc report Above 800 million zyn u.s. shipment volume in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 800 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 800 million: Philip Morris International's reported U.S. Zyn shipment volume for 2026, as published by Fiscal.ai and determined by Kalshi staff by March 31, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Philip Morris International Inc reports Above 800000000 zyn u.s. shipment volume in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
            "url": "https://fiscal.ai",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
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      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.29,
      "implied_probability": 0.29,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 326.0064,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 800000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-9011F8C437",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "nicotine",
        "pmi",
        "shipments",
        "zyn",
        "zyn us shipment"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M7J7M6JW30",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XLQBNQWBX5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPMA-28JANZYN-820000000",
      "question": "Will Philip Morris International Inc report Above 820 million zyn u.s. shipment volume in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 820 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 820 million: Philip Morris International's reported U.S. Zyn shipment volume for 2026, as published by Fiscal.ai and determined by Kalshi staff by March 31, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Philip Morris International Inc reports Above 820000000 zyn u.s. shipment volume in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
            "url": "https://fiscal.ai",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.18,
      "implied_probability": 0.18,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 271.5984,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 820000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-4835CE0BBB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "nicotine",
        "pmi",
        "shipments",
        "zyn",
        "zyn us shipment"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-XLQBNQWBX5",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}