{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-HW3KB7FMZ1",
  "slug": "kxpopchangenyc-28jun01",
  "question": "Will New York City's population increase from July 2025 to July 2027?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "nyc-demographics",
    "population-metrics",
    "urban-migration",
    "us-cities",
    "2028"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track New York City's population change between July 2025 and July 2027. Kalshi structures the event as eight discrete percentage-change tiers, spanning decreases of 3% or more through increases of 3% or more. All eight contracts resolve via Kalshi staff determination using United Nations Population Division data. Resolution is scheduled for June 2028, after UN figures covering the measurement window are expected to be published.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-VJJRQM3QC8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.29,
    "implied_probability": 0.29
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5W2F6VMTH8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HW3KB7FMZ1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPOPCHANGENYC-28JUN01-NYC-3-NAN",
      "question": "Will New York City experience population decrease 3% or more during 2025-2027?",
      "description": "Decrease 3% or more",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Decrease 3% or more: United Nations Population Division data on the named city's population change during 2025-2027, reported by June 1, 2028, determines the outcome range.",
      "close_at": "2028-06-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-06-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If New York City experiences a population increase of between -3% or less between July 1, 2025 and July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPopulation change is calculated as ((July 2027 Population - July 2025 Population) / July 2025 Population) × 100, rounded to one decimal place. The market resolves based on official census counts or estimates from the relevant national statistical office or census bureau for the specified geography. If the geography is split into multiple entities during the time period, the combined population of all successor entities will be used. Preliminary counts or estimates are valid if final data is not available by expiration. If data is unavailable by the latest expiration date, all strikes resolve to No. For temporal markets, the market checks cumulative population change from the start of the time period to each potential resolution date.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the United Nations Population Division",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the United Nations Population Division",
            "url": "https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development",
            "url": "https://www.oecd.org",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the World Bank",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "BBC News",
            "url": "https://www.bbc.com/news",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "relevant national statistical office or census bureau for geography",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official census counts or estimates from the relevant national statistical office or census bureau for the specified geography",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "relevant national statistical office or census bureau for geography",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 75,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 86.3248,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": -3,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "demographics",
        "nyc",
        "nyc population change",
        "population"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-87PRZQ5YX3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HW3KB7FMZ1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPOPCHANGENYC-28JUN01-NYC-2.99-2N",
      "question": "Will New York City experience population increase between -2.99% and -2% during 2025-2027?",
      "description": "Decrease 2-2.99%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Decrease 2-2.99%: United Nations Population Division data on the named city's population change during 2025-2027, reported by June 1, 2028, determines the outcome range.",
      "close_at": "2028-06-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-06-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If New York City experiences a population increase of between -2.99% to -2% between July 1, 2025 and July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPopulation change is calculated as ((July 2027 Population - July 2025 Population) / July 2025 Population) × 100, rounded to one decimal place. The market resolves based on official census counts or estimates from the relevant national statistical office or census bureau for the specified geography. If the geography is split into multiple entities during the time period, the combined population of all successor entities will be used. Preliminary counts or estimates are valid if final data is not available by expiration. If data is unavailable by the latest expiration date, all strikes resolve to No. For temporal markets, the market checks cumulative population change from the start of the time period to each potential resolution date.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the United Nations Population Division",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the United Nations Population Division",
            "url": "https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development",
            "url": "https://www.oecd.org",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the World Bank",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "BBC News",
            "url": "https://www.bbc.com/news",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "relevant national statistical office or census bureau for geography",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official census counts or estimates from the relevant national statistical office or census bureau for the specified geography",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "relevant national statistical office or census bureau for geography",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 75,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.03,
      "implied_probability": 0.03,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 120.6471,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": -2,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "demographics",
        "nyc",
        "nyc population change",
        "population"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PBYDY43064",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HW3KB7FMZ1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPOPCHANGENYC-28JUN01-NYC-1.99-1N",
      "question": "Will New York City experience population increase between -1.99% and -1% during 2025-2027?",
      "description": "Decrease 1-1.99%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Decrease 1-1.99%: United Nations Population Division data on the named city's population change during 2025-2027, reported by June 1, 2028, determines the outcome range.",
      "close_at": "2028-06-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-06-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If New York City experiences a population increase of between -1.99% to -1% between July 1, 2025 and July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPopulation change is calculated as ((July 2027 Population - July 2025 Population) / July 2025 Population) × 100, rounded to one decimal place. The market resolves based on official census counts or estimates from the relevant national statistical office or census bureau for the specified geography. If the geography is split into multiple entities during the time period, the combined population of all successor entities will be used. Preliminary counts or estimates are valid if final data is not available by expiration. If data is unavailable by the latest expiration date, all strikes resolve to No. For temporal markets, the market checks cumulative population change from the start of the time period to each potential resolution date.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the United Nations Population Division",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the United Nations Population Division",
            "url": "https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development",
            "url": "https://www.oecd.org",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the World Bank",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "BBC News",
            "url": "https://www.bbc.com/news",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "relevant national statistical office or census bureau for geography",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official census counts or estimates from the relevant national statistical office or census bureau for the specified geography",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "relevant national statistical office or census bureau for geography",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 75,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.07,
      "implied_probability": 0.07,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 712.8331000000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": -1,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "demographics",
        "nyc",
        "nyc population change",
        "population"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VJJRQM3QC8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HW3KB7FMZ1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPOPCHANGENYC-28JUN01-NYC-0.99-0N",
      "question": "Will New York City experience population increase between -0.99% and 0% during 2025-2027?",
      "description": "Decrease 0-0.99%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Decrease 0-0.99%: United Nations Population Division data on the named city's population change during 2025-2027, reported by June 1, 2028, determines the outcome range.",
      "close_at": "2028-06-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-06-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If New York City experiences a population increase of between -0.99% to 0% between July 1, 2025 and July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPopulation change is calculated as ((July 2027 Population - July 2025 Population) / July 2025 Population) × 100, rounded to one decimal place. The market resolves based on official census counts or estimates from the relevant national statistical office or census bureau for the specified geography. If the geography is split into multiple entities during the time period, the combined population of all successor entities will be used. Preliminary counts or estimates are valid if final data is not available by expiration. If data is unavailable by the latest expiration date, all strikes resolve to No. For temporal markets, the market checks cumulative population change from the start of the time period to each potential resolution date.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the United Nations Population Division",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the United Nations Population Division",
            "url": "https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development",
            "url": "https://www.oecd.org",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the World Bank",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "BBC News",
            "url": "https://www.bbc.com/news",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "relevant national statistical office or census bureau for geography",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official census counts or estimates from the relevant national statistical office or census bureau for the specified geography",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "relevant national statistical office or census bureau for geography",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 75,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.29,
      "implied_probability": 0.29,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2.697,
      "volume_total_usd": 6240.881199999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 0,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "demographics",
        "nyc",
        "nyc population change",
        "population"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KM15F5LZT3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HW3KB7FMZ1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPOPCHANGENYC-28JUN01-NYC-0.01-0.99",
      "question": "Will New York City experience population increase between 0.01% and 0.99% during 2025-2027?",
      "description": "Increase 0.01-0.99%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Increase 0.01-0.99%: United Nations Population Division data on the named city's population change during 2025-2027, reported by June 1, 2028, determines the outcome range.",
      "close_at": "2028-06-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-06-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If New York City experiences a population increase of between 0.01% to 0.99% between July 1, 2025 and July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPopulation change is calculated as ((July 2027 Population - July 2025 Population) / July 2025 Population) × 100, rounded to one decimal place. The market resolves based on official census counts or estimates from the relevant national statistical office or census bureau for the specified geography. If the geography is split into multiple entities during the time period, the combined population of all successor entities will be used. Preliminary counts or estimates are valid if final data is not available by expiration. If data is unavailable by the latest expiration date, all strikes resolve to No. For temporal markets, the market checks cumulative population change from the start of the time period to each potential resolution date.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the United Nations Population Division",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the United Nations Population Division",
            "url": "https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development",
            "url": "https://www.oecd.org",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the World Bank",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "BBC News",
            "url": "https://www.bbc.com/news",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "relevant national statistical office or census bureau for geography",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official census counts or estimates from the relevant national statistical office or census bureau for the specified geography",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "relevant national statistical office or census bureau for geography",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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      "rcg": {
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.46,
      "implied_probability": 0.46,
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      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "demographics",
        "nyc",
        "nyc population change",
        "population"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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    },
    {
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      "question": "Will New York City experience population increase between 1% and 1.99% during 2025-2027?",
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      "close_at": "2028-06-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-06-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If New York City experiences a population increase of between 1% to 1.99% between July 1, 2025 and July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPopulation change is calculated as ((July 2027 Population - July 2025 Population) / July 2025 Population) × 100, rounded to one decimal place. The market resolves based on official census counts or estimates from the relevant national statistical office or census bureau for the specified geography. If the geography is split into multiple entities during the time period, the combined population of all successor entities will be used. Preliminary counts or estimates are valid if final data is not available by expiration. If data is unavailable by the latest expiration date, all strikes resolve to No. For temporal markets, the market checks cumulative population change from the start of the time period to each potential resolution date.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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            "name": "the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development",
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          {
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          {
            "name": "BBC News",
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            "name": "The Washington Post",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
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            "name": "official census counts or estimates from the relevant national statistical office or census bureau for the specified geography",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "volume_24h_usd": 9.581000000000001,
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      "question_id": null,
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-F1R3646P85",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HW3KB7FMZ1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPOPCHANGENYC-28JUN01-NYC-2-2.99",
      "question": "Will New York City experience population increase between 2% and 2.99% during 2025-2027?",
      "description": "Increase 2-2.99%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Increase 2-2.99%: United Nations Population Division data on the named city's population change during 2025-2027, reported by June 1, 2028, determines the outcome range.",
      "close_at": "2028-06-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-06-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If New York City experiences a population increase of between 2% to 2.99% between July 1, 2025 and July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPopulation change is calculated as ((July 2027 Population - July 2025 Population) / July 2025 Population) × 100, rounded to one decimal place. The market resolves based on official census counts or estimates from the relevant national statistical office or census bureau for the specified geography. If the geography is split into multiple entities during the time period, the combined population of all successor entities will be used. Preliminary counts or estimates are valid if final data is not available by expiration. If data is unavailable by the latest expiration date, all strikes resolve to No. For temporal markets, the market checks cumulative population change from the start of the time period to each potential resolution date.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "the United Nations Population Division",
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            "name": "the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "BBC News",
            "url": "https://www.bbc.com/news",
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          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "relevant national statistical office or census bureau for geography",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
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            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
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          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "volume_total_usd": 63.0088,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "nyc population change",
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FN56YSZVG7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HW3KB7FMZ1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPOPCHANGENYC-28JUN01-NYC-3-NA",
      "question": "Will New York City experience population increase 3% or more during 2025-2027?",
      "description": "Increase 3% or more",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Increase 3% or more: United Nations Population Division data on the named city's population change during 2025-2027, reported by June 1, 2028, determines the outcome range.",
      "close_at": "2028-06-01T03:59:00Z",
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      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If New York City experiences a population increase of between 3% or more between July 1, 2025 and July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPopulation change is calculated as ((July 2027 Population - July 2025 Population) / July 2025 Population) × 100, rounded to one decimal place. The market resolves based on official census counts or estimates from the relevant national statistical office or census bureau for the specified geography. If the geography is split into multiple entities during the time period, the combined population of all successor entities will be used. Preliminary counts or estimates are valid if final data is not available by expiration. If data is unavailable by the latest expiration date, all strikes resolve to No. For temporal markets, the market checks cumulative population change from the start of the time period to each potential resolution date.",
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            "name": "BBC News",
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            "name": "relevant national statistical office or census bureau for geography",
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "population"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-HW3KB7FMZ1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}