{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-87B87RB6N9",
  "slug": "kxpopevisit-27jan01",
  "question": "Will Pope Leo visit any countries in 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "papal-visits",
    "pope-leo",
    "international-travel",
    "2027",
    "geopolitics"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Pope Leo XIV will visit specific countries before January 1, 2027. Each binary contract is independent, covering 12 destinations across Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. Kalshi staff determination, using reporting from The Guardian and other news sources, resolves each contract separately. A papal visit confirmed to one destination has no bearing on resolution of any other contract.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-RCML8CLZ42",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.93,
    "implied_probability": 0.93,
    "as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BGJPG7YY11",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-87B87RB6N9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPOPEVISIT-27JAN01-PER",
      "question": "Will Pope Leo XIV visit Peru before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "Peru",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Peru: Kalshi staff determination based on reporting from The Guardian and other news sources will resolve whether the named individual visits the referenced country before January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Pope Leo XIV has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Peru before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPhysical presence within the geographic boundaries of the area is required. Flying over without landing, layovers during which the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual or remote appearances, future visit plans, or (unless explicitly specified) presence in adjacent international waters or solely within embassy or consulate grounds do NOT constitute a visit. International airports are considered within the boundaries of their host jurisdiction. A visit that began before the specified time period and is ongoing as of its start does not count; however, if the person departs and re-enters the area during the time period, the re-entry constitutes a new visit and does count.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "The Guardian",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.theguardian.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "The Guardian",
            "url": "https://www.theguardian.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official representatives or offices of <person>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official social media accounts of <person> or their official representatives",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNBC",
            "url": "https://www.cnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in <area>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government sources of <area>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.97,
      "implied_probability": 0.97,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-19T20:01:05.415Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 13964.5759,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "peru",
        "pope",
        "pope leo xiv",
        "travel"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LNTTF870S0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-87B87RB6N9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPOPEVISIT-27JAN01-POR",
      "question": "Will Pope Leo XIV visit Portugal before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "Portugal",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Portugal: Kalshi staff determination based on reporting from The Guardian and other news sources will resolve whether the named individual visits the referenced country before January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Pope Leo XIV has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Portugal before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPhysical presence within the geographic boundaries of the area is required. Flying over without landing, layovers during which the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual or remote appearances, future visit plans, or (unless explicitly specified) presence in adjacent international waters or solely within embassy or consulate grounds do NOT constitute a visit. International airports are considered within the boundaries of their host jurisdiction. A visit that began before the specified time period and is ongoing as of its start does not count; however, if the person departs and re-enters the area during the time period, the re-entry constitutes a new visit and does count.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "The Guardian",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.theguardian.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "The Guardian",
            "url": "https://www.theguardian.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official representatives or offices of <person>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official social media accounts of <person> or their official representatives",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNBC",
            "url": "https://www.cnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in <area>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government sources of <area>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.15,
      "implied_probability": 0.15,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 515.7345,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "pope",
        "pope leo xiv",
        "portugal",
        "travel"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PB2MRVXLJ3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-87B87RB6N9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPOPEVISIT-27JAN01-MEX",
      "question": "Will Pope Leo XIV visit Mexico before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "Mexico",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Mexico: Kalshi staff determination based on reporting from The Guardian and other news sources will resolve whether the named individual visits the referenced country before January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Pope Leo XIV has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Mexico before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPhysical presence within the geographic boundaries of the area is required. Flying over without landing, layovers during which the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual or remote appearances, future visit plans, or (unless explicitly specified) presence in adjacent international waters or solely within embassy or consulate grounds do NOT constitute a visit. International airports are considered within the boundaries of their host jurisdiction. A visit that began before the specified time period and is ongoing as of its start does not count; however, if the person departs and re-enters the area during the time period, the re-entry constitutes a new visit and does count.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "The Guardian",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.theguardian.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "The Guardian",
            "url": "https://www.theguardian.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official representatives or offices of <person>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official social media accounts of <person> or their official representatives",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNBC",
            "url": "https://www.cnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in <area>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government sources of <area>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.13,
      "implied_probability": 0.13,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3410.0313,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "mexico",
        "pope",
        "pope leo xiv",
        "travel"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RCML8CLZ42",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-87B87RB6N9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPOPEVISIT-27JAN01-ARG",
      "question": "Will Pope Leo XIV visit Argentina before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "Argentina",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Argentina: Kalshi staff determination based on reporting from The Guardian and other news sources will resolve whether the named individual visits the referenced country before January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Pope Leo XIV has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Argentina before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPhysical presence within the geographic boundaries of the area is required. Flying over without landing, layovers during which the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual or remote appearances, future visit plans, or (unless explicitly specified) presence in adjacent international waters or solely within embassy or consulate grounds do NOT constitute a visit. International airports are considered within the boundaries of their host jurisdiction. A visit that began before the specified time period and is ongoing as of its start does not count; however, if the person departs and re-enters the area during the time period, the re-entry constitutes a new visit and does count.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "The Guardian",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.theguardian.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "The Guardian",
            "url": "https://www.theguardian.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official representatives or offices of <person>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official social media accounts of <person> or their official representatives",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNBC",
            "url": "https://www.cnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in <area>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government sources of <area>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.93,
      "implied_probability": 0.93,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 25087.1127,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "argentina",
        "pope",
        "pope leo xiv",
        "travel"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QFWV34YWD3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-87B87RB6N9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPOPEVISIT-27JAN01-URU",
      "question": "Will Pope Leo XIV visit Uruguay before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "Uruguay",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Uruguay: Kalshi staff determination based on reporting from The Guardian and other news sources will resolve whether the named individual visits the referenced country before January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Pope Leo XIV has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Uruguay before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPhysical presence within the geographic boundaries of the area is required. Flying over without landing, layovers during which the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual or remote appearances, future visit plans, or (unless explicitly specified) presence in adjacent international waters or solely within embassy or consulate grounds do NOT constitute a visit. International airports are considered within the boundaries of their host jurisdiction. A visit that began before the specified time period and is ongoing as of its start does not count; however, if the person departs and re-enters the area during the time period, the re-entry constitutes a new visit and does count.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "The Guardian",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.theguardian.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "The Guardian",
            "url": "https://www.theguardian.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official representatives or offices of <person>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official social media accounts of <person> or their official representatives",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNBC",
            "url": "https://www.cnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in <area>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government sources of <area>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.92,
      "implied_probability": 0.92,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 368,
      "volume_total_usd": 25700.1632,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "pope",
        "pope leo xiv",
        "travel",
        "uruguay"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9PL0CNHM58",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-87B87RB6N9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPOPEVISIT-27JAN01-ISR",
      "question": "Will Pope Leo XIV visit Israel before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "Israel",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Israel: Kalshi staff determination based on reporting from The Guardian and other news sources will resolve whether the named individual visits the referenced country before January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Pope Leo XIV has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Israel before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPhysical presence within the geographic boundaries of the area is required. Flying over without landing, layovers during which the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual or remote appearances, future visit plans, or (unless explicitly specified) presence in adjacent international waters or solely within embassy or consulate grounds do NOT constitute a visit. International airports are considered within the boundaries of their host jurisdiction. A visit that began before the specified time period and is ongoing as of its start does not count; however, if the person departs and re-enters the area during the time period, the re-entry constitutes a new visit and does count.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "The Guardian",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.theguardian.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "The Guardian",
            "url": "https://www.theguardian.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official representatives or offices of <person>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official social media accounts of <person> or their official representatives",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNBC",
            "url": "https://www.cnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in <area>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government sources of <area>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.15,
      "implied_probability": 0.15,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-05T10:00:55.934Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 676.119,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "israel",
        "pope",
        "pope leo xiv",
        "travel"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-N49NNRLVR3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-87B87RB6N9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPOPEVISIT-27JAN01-JOR",
      "question": "Will Pope Leo XIV visit Jordan before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "Jordan",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Jordan: Kalshi staff determination based on reporting from The Guardian and other news sources will resolve whether the named individual visits the referenced country before January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Pope Leo XIV has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Jordan before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPhysical presence within the geographic boundaries of the area is required. Flying over without landing, layovers during which the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual or remote appearances, future visit plans, or (unless explicitly specified) presence in adjacent international waters or solely within embassy or consulate grounds do NOT constitute a visit. International airports are considered within the boundaries of their host jurisdiction. A visit that began before the specified time period and is ongoing as of its start does not count; however, if the person departs and re-enters the area during the time period, the re-entry constitutes a new visit and does count.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "The Guardian",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.theguardian.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "The Guardian",
            "url": "https://www.theguardian.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official representatives or offices of <person>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official social media accounts of <person> or their official representatives",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNBC",
            "url": "https://www.cnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in <area>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government sources of <area>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.08,
      "implied_probability": 0.08,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-14T20:01:04.604Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 25.12,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "jordan",
        "pope",
        "pope leo xiv",
        "travel"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-84L72F8MW6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-87B87RB6N9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPOPEVISIT-27JAN01-USA",
      "question": "Will Pope Leo XIV visit United States before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "USA",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "USA: Kalshi staff determination based on reporting from The Guardian and other news sources will resolve whether the named individual visits the referenced country before January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Pope Leo XIV has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of the United States of America before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPhysical presence within the geographic boundaries of the area is required. Flying over without landing, layovers during which the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual or remote appearances, future visit plans, or (unless explicitly specified) presence in adjacent international waters or solely within embassy or consulate grounds do NOT constitute a visit. International airports are considered within the boundaries of their host jurisdiction. A visit that began before the specified time period and is ongoing as of its start does not count; however, if the person departs and re-enters the area during the time period, the re-entry constitutes a new visit and does count.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "The Guardian",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.theguardian.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "The Guardian",
            "url": "https://www.theguardian.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official representatives or offices of <person>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official social media accounts of <person> or their official representatives",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNBC",
            "url": "https://www.cnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in <area>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government sources of <area>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.06,
      "implied_probability": 0.06,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4332.1596,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "pope",
        "pope leo xiv",
        "travel",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MC8S6K52W9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-87B87RB6N9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPOPEVISIT-27JAN01-BRA",
      "question": "Will Pope Leo XIV visit Brazil before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "Brazil",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Brazil: Kalshi staff determination based on reporting from The Guardian and other news sources will resolve whether the named individual visits the referenced country before January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Pope Leo XIV has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Brazil before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPhysical presence within the geographic boundaries of the area is required. Flying over without landing, layovers during which the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual or remote appearances, future visit plans, or (unless explicitly specified) presence in adjacent international waters or solely within embassy or consulate grounds do NOT constitute a visit. International airports are considered within the boundaries of their host jurisdiction. A visit that began before the specified time period and is ongoing as of its start does not count; however, if the person departs and re-enters the area during the time period, the re-entry constitutes a new visit and does count.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "The Guardian",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.theguardian.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "The Guardian",
            "url": "https://www.theguardian.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official representatives or offices of <person>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official social media accounts of <person> or their official representatives",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNBC",
            "url": "https://www.cnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in <area>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government sources of <area>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 38.4701,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "brazil",
        "pope",
        "pope leo xiv",
        "travel"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-W6PS5QFTR6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-87B87RB6N9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPOPEVISIT-27JAN01-PHI",
      "question": "Will Pope Leo XIV visit Philippines before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "Philippines",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Philippines: Kalshi staff determination based on reporting from The Guardian and other news sources will resolve whether the named individual visits the referenced country before January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Pope Leo XIV has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Philippines before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPhysical presence within the geographic boundaries of the area is required. Flying over without landing, layovers during which the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual or remote appearances, future visit plans, or (unless explicitly specified) presence in adjacent international waters or solely within embassy or consulate grounds do NOT constitute a visit. International airports are considered within the boundaries of their host jurisdiction. A visit that began before the specified time period and is ongoing as of its start does not count; however, if the person departs and re-enters the area during the time period, the re-entry constitutes a new visit and does count.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "The Guardian",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.theguardian.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "The Guardian",
            "url": "https://www.theguardian.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official representatives or offices of <person>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official social media accounts of <person> or their official representatives",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNBC",
            "url": "https://www.cnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in <area>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government sources of <area>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.06,
      "implied_probability": 0.06,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-14T20:01:04.604Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 11.5182,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "philippines",
        "pope",
        "pope leo xiv",
        "travel"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GNGLN8HSQ5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-87B87RB6N9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPOPEVISIT-27JAN01-SSUD",
      "question": "Will Pope Leo XIV visit South Sudan before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "South Sudan",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "South Sudan: Kalshi staff determination based on reporting from The Guardian and other news sources will resolve whether the named individual visits the referenced country before January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Pope Leo XIV has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of South Sudan before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPhysical presence within the geographic boundaries of the area is required. Flying over without landing, layovers during which the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual or remote appearances, future visit plans, or (unless explicitly specified) presence in adjacent international waters or solely within embassy or consulate grounds do NOT constitute a visit. International airports are considered within the boundaries of their host jurisdiction. A visit that began before the specified time period and is ongoing as of its start does not count; however, if the person departs and re-enters the area during the time period, the re-entry constitutes a new visit and does count.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "The Guardian",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.theguardian.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "The Guardian",
            "url": "https://www.theguardian.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official representatives or offices of <person>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official social media accounts of <person> or their official representatives",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNBC",
            "url": "https://www.cnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in <area>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government sources of <area>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.08,
      "implied_probability": 0.08,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-05T10:00:55.934Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 249.8592,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "pope",
        "pope leo xiv",
        "south sudan",
        "travel"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YR4NZ961F5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-87B87RB6N9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPOPEVISIT-27JAN01-UKR",
      "question": "Will Pope Leo XIV visit Ukraine before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "Ukraine",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Ukraine: Kalshi staff determination based on reporting from The Guardian and other news sources will resolve whether the named individual visits the referenced country before January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Pope Leo XIV has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Ukraine before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPhysical presence within the geographic boundaries of the area is required. Flying over without landing, layovers during which the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual or remote appearances, future visit plans, or (unless explicitly specified) presence in adjacent international waters or solely within embassy or consulate grounds do NOT constitute a visit. International airports are considered within the boundaries of their host jurisdiction. A visit that began before the specified time period and is ongoing as of its start does not count; however, if the person departs and re-enters the area during the time period, the re-entry constitutes a new visit and does count.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "The Guardian",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.theguardian.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "The Guardian",
            "url": "https://www.theguardian.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official representatives or offices of <person>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official social media accounts of <person> or their official representatives",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNBC",
            "url": "https://www.cnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in <area>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government sources of <area>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.11,
      "implied_probability": 0.11,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-05T10:00:55.934Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 968.8426,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "pope",
        "pope leo xiv",
        "travel",
        "ukraine"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-87B87RB6N9",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}