{ "_notice": { "type": "free_key_offer", "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.", "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/", "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change." }, "event_id": "CM-EVT-87B87RB6N9", "slug": "kxpopevisit-27jan01", "question": "Will Pope Leo visit any countries before 2027?", "category": "geopolitics", "event_type": "BINARY", "ladder_distribution": null, "tags": [ "papal-travel", "geopolitics", "pope-leo", "international-relations", "religious-leadership", "2027" ], "catalyst_types": [], "catalyst_dates": [], "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Pope Leo XIV conducts an official visit to each named country before January 1, 2027. All twelve markets are structured identically: binary outcome questions across distinct destinations, priced separately but collectively mapping the pontiff's potential travel footprint. Kalshi staff determination, sourced against Guardian reporting, resolves each contract independently. A visit confirmed in one country has no mechanical bearing on resolution of any other.", "venues_covered": [ "kalshi" ], "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-QFWV34YWD3", "current_primary_mark": { "last_price": 0.81, "implied_probability": 0.81 }, "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00", "markets": [ { "market_id": "CM-MKT-BGJPG7YY11", "event_id": "CM-EVT-87B87RB6N9", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXPOPEVISIT-27JAN01-PER", "question": "Will Pope Leo XIV visit Peru before Jan 1, 2027?", "description": "Peru", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Peru: Kalshi staff determination based on reporting by The Guardian resolves whether the named religious figure visits the referenced country before January 1, 2027.", "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z", "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If Pope Leo XIV has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Peru before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPhysical presence within the geographic boundaries is required - flying over without landing, airport layovers where the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual appearances, presence in international waters, or presence solely within embassy/consulate grounds do NOT count as visits. For cities, official municipal boundaries apply. For states/provinces, official boundaries apply. For countries, internationally recognized borders apply. International airports are considered within their host jurisdiction. Evidence must be reported by at least one Source Agency and may include official announcements, news reports with specific location details, verified photographs/videos at identifiable locations, flight records showing arrival, completed official schedules, or social media posts from official accounts. Visits that began before market issuance do not count. For multiple locations with OR logic, visiting any single location satisfies the criterion. For AND logic, all locations must be visited.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "The Guardian", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.theguardian.com", "sources": [ { "name": "The Guardian", "url": "https://www.theguardian.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official representatives or offices of ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Fox News", "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official social media accounts of or their official representatives", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Semafor", "url": "https://www.semafor.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Information", "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "CNBC", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "the Associated Press", "url": "https://apnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Wall Street Journal", "url": "https://www.wsj.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "CNN", "url": "https://www.cnn.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Politico", "url": "https://www.politico.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "MSNBC", "url": "https://www.msnbc.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Washington Post", "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official government sources of ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The New York Times", "url": "https://www.nytimes.com", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 80, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 7 }, "last_price": 0.83, "implied_probability": 0.83, "volume_24h_usd": 8.299999999999999, "volume_total_usd": 10580.400099999999, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "peru", "pope", "pope leo xiv", "travel" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-LNTTF870S0", "event_id": "CM-EVT-87B87RB6N9", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXPOPEVISIT-27JAN01-POR", "question": "Will Pope Leo XIV visit Portugal before Jan 1, 2027?", "description": "Portugal", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Portugal: Kalshi staff determination based on reporting by The Guardian resolves whether the named religious figure visits the referenced country before January 1, 2027.", "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z", "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If Pope Leo XIV has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Portugal before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPhysical presence within the geographic boundaries is required - flying over without landing, airport layovers where the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual appearances, presence in international waters, or presence solely within embassy/consulate grounds do NOT count as visits. For cities, official municipal boundaries apply. For states/provinces, official boundaries apply. For countries, internationally recognized borders apply. International airports are considered within their host jurisdiction. Evidence must be reported by at least one Source Agency and may include official announcements, news reports with specific location details, verified photographs/videos at identifiable locations, flight records showing arrival, completed official schedules, or social media posts from official accounts. Visits that began before market issuance do not count. For multiple locations with OR logic, visiting any single location satisfies the criterion. For AND logic, all locations must be visited.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "The Guardian", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.theguardian.com", "sources": [ { "name": "The Guardian", "url": "https://www.theguardian.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official representatives or offices of ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Fox News", "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official social media accounts of or their official representatives", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Semafor", "url": "https://www.semafor.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Information", "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "CNBC", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "the Associated Press", "url": "https://apnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Wall Street Journal", "url": "https://www.wsj.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "CNN", "url": "https://www.cnn.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Politico", "url": "https://www.politico.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "MSNBC", "url": "https://www.msnbc.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Washington Post", "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official government sources of ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The New York Times", "url": "https://www.nytimes.com", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 80, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 7 }, "last_price": 0.19, "implied_probability": 0.19, "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 631.5543, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "pope", "pope leo xiv", "portugal", "travel" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-PB2MRVXLJ3", "event_id": "CM-EVT-87B87RB6N9", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXPOPEVISIT-27JAN01-MEX", "question": "Will Pope Leo XIV visit Mexico before Jan 1, 2027?", "description": "Mexico", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Mexico: Kalshi staff determination based on reporting by The Guardian resolves whether the named religious figure visits the referenced country before January 1, 2027.", "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z", "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If Pope Leo XIV has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Mexico before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPhysical presence within the geographic boundaries is required - flying over without landing, airport layovers where the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual appearances, presence in international waters, or presence solely within embassy/consulate grounds do NOT count as visits. For cities, official municipal boundaries apply. For states/provinces, official boundaries apply. For countries, internationally recognized borders apply. International airports are considered within their host jurisdiction. Evidence must be reported by at least one Source Agency and may include official announcements, news reports with specific location details, verified photographs/videos at identifiable locations, flight records showing arrival, completed official schedules, or social media posts from official accounts. Visits that began before market issuance do not count. For multiple locations with OR logic, visiting any single location satisfies the criterion. For AND logic, all locations must be visited.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "The Guardian", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.theguardian.com", "sources": [ { "name": "The Guardian", "url": "https://www.theguardian.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official representatives or offices of ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Fox News", "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official social media accounts of or their official representatives", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Semafor", "url": "https://www.semafor.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Information", "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "CNBC", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "the Associated Press", "url": "https://apnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Wall Street Journal", "url": "https://www.wsj.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "CNN", "url": "https://www.cnn.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Politico", "url": "https://www.politico.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "MSNBC", "url": "https://www.msnbc.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Washington Post", "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official government sources of ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The New York Times", "url": "https://www.nytimes.com", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 80, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 7 }, "last_price": 0.39, "implied_probability": 0.39, "volume_24h_usd": 0.39, "volume_total_usd": 9840.8505, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "mexico", "pope", "pope leo xiv", "travel" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-RCML8CLZ42", "event_id": "CM-EVT-87B87RB6N9", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXPOPEVISIT-27JAN01-ARG", "question": "Will Pope Leo XIV visit Argentina before Jan 1, 2027?", "description": "Argentina", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Argentina: Kalshi staff determination based on reporting by The Guardian resolves whether the named religious figure visits the referenced country before January 1, 2027.", "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z", "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If Pope Leo XIV has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Argentina before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPhysical presence within the geographic boundaries is required - flying over without landing, airport layovers where the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual appearances, presence in international waters, or presence solely within embassy/consulate grounds do NOT count as visits. For cities, official municipal boundaries apply. For states/provinces, official boundaries apply. For countries, internationally recognized borders apply. International airports are considered within their host jurisdiction. Evidence must be reported by at least one Source Agency and may include official announcements, news reports with specific location details, verified photographs/videos at identifiable locations, flight records showing arrival, completed official schedules, or social media posts from official accounts. Visits that began before market issuance do not count. For multiple locations with OR logic, visiting any single location satisfies the criterion. For AND logic, all locations must be visited.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "The Guardian", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.theguardian.com", "sources": [ { "name": "The Guardian", "url": "https://www.theguardian.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official representatives or offices of ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Fox News", "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official social media accounts of or their official representatives", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Semafor", "url": "https://www.semafor.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Information", "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "CNBC", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "the Associated Press", "url": "https://apnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Wall Street Journal", "url": "https://www.wsj.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "CNN", "url": "https://www.cnn.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Politico", "url": "https://www.politico.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "MSNBC", "url": "https://www.msnbc.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Washington Post", "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official government sources of ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The New York Times", "url": "https://www.nytimes.com", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 80, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 7 }, "last_price": 0.81, "implied_probability": 0.81, "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 20634.782400000004, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "argentina", "pope", "pope leo xiv", "travel" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-QFWV34YWD3", "event_id": "CM-EVT-87B87RB6N9", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXPOPEVISIT-27JAN01-URU", "question": "Will Pope Leo XIV visit Uruguay before Jan 1, 2027?", "description": "Uruguay", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Uruguay: Kalshi staff determination based on reporting by The Guardian resolves whether the named religious figure visits the referenced country before January 1, 2027.", "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z", "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If Pope Leo XIV has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Uruguay before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPhysical presence within the geographic boundaries is required - flying over without landing, airport layovers where the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual appearances, presence in international waters, or presence solely within embassy/consulate grounds do NOT count as visits. For cities, official municipal boundaries apply. For states/provinces, official boundaries apply. For countries, internationally recognized borders apply. International airports are considered within their host jurisdiction. Evidence must be reported by at least one Source Agency and may include official announcements, news reports with specific location details, verified photographs/videos at identifiable locations, flight records showing arrival, completed official schedules, or social media posts from official accounts. Visits that began before market issuance do not count. For multiple locations with OR logic, visiting any single location satisfies the criterion. For AND logic, all locations must be visited.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "The Guardian", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.theguardian.com", "sources": [ { "name": "The Guardian", "url": "https://www.theguardian.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official representatives or offices of ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Fox News", "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official social media accounts of or their official representatives", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Semafor", "url": "https://www.semafor.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Information", "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "CNBC", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "the Associated Press", "url": "https://apnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Wall Street Journal", "url": "https://www.wsj.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "CNN", "url": "https://www.cnn.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Politico", "url": "https://www.politico.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "MSNBC", "url": "https://www.msnbc.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Washington Post", "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official government sources of ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The New York Times", "url": "https://www.nytimes.com", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 80, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 7 }, "last_price": 0.81, "implied_probability": 0.81, "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 21200.640300000003, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "pope", "pope leo xiv", "travel", "uruguay" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-9PL0CNHM58", "event_id": "CM-EVT-87B87RB6N9", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXPOPEVISIT-27JAN01-ISR", "question": "Will Pope Leo XIV visit Israel before Jan 1, 2027?", "description": "Israel", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Israel: Kalshi staff determination based on reporting by The Guardian resolves whether the named religious figure visits the referenced country before January 1, 2027.", "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z", "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If Pope Leo XIV has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Israel before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPhysical presence within the geographic boundaries is required - flying over without landing, airport layovers where the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual appearances, presence in international waters, or presence solely within embassy/consulate grounds do NOT count as visits. For cities, official municipal boundaries apply. For states/provinces, official boundaries apply. For countries, internationally recognized borders apply. International airports are considered within their host jurisdiction. Evidence must be reported by at least one Source Agency and may include official announcements, news reports with specific location details, verified photographs/videos at identifiable locations, flight records showing arrival, completed official schedules, or social media posts from official accounts. Visits that began before market issuance do not count. For multiple locations with OR logic, visiting any single location satisfies the criterion. For AND logic, all locations must be visited.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "The Guardian", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.theguardian.com", "sources": [ { "name": "The Guardian", "url": "https://www.theguardian.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official representatives or offices of ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Fox News", "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official social media accounts of or their official representatives", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Semafor", "url": "https://www.semafor.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Information", "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "CNBC", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "the Associated Press", "url": "https://apnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Wall Street Journal", "url": "https://www.wsj.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "CNN", "url": "https://www.cnn.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Politico", "url": "https://www.politico.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "MSNBC", "url": "https://www.msnbc.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Washington Post", "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official government sources of ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The New York Times", "url": "https://www.nytimes.com", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 80, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 7 }, "last_price": 0.15, "implied_probability": 0.15, "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 675.669, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "israel", "pope", "pope leo xiv", "travel" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-N49NNRLVR3", "event_id": "CM-EVT-87B87RB6N9", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXPOPEVISIT-27JAN01-JOR", "question": "Will Pope Leo XIV visit Jordan before Jan 1, 2027?", "description": "Jordan", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Jordan: Kalshi staff determination based on reporting by The Guardian resolves whether the named religious figure visits the referenced country before January 1, 2027.", "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z", "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If Pope Leo XIV has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Jordan before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPhysical presence within the geographic boundaries is required - flying over without landing, airport layovers where the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual appearances, presence in international waters, or presence solely within embassy/consulate grounds do NOT count as visits. For cities, official municipal boundaries apply. For states/provinces, official boundaries apply. For countries, internationally recognized borders apply. International airports are considered within their host jurisdiction. Evidence must be reported by at least one Source Agency and may include official announcements, news reports with specific location details, verified photographs/videos at identifiable locations, flight records showing arrival, completed official schedules, or social media posts from official accounts. Visits that began before market issuance do not count. For multiple locations with OR logic, visiting any single location satisfies the criterion. For AND logic, all locations must be visited.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "The Guardian", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.theguardian.com", "sources": [ { "name": "The Guardian", "url": "https://www.theguardian.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official representatives or offices of ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Fox News", "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official social media accounts of or their official representatives", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Semafor", "url": "https://www.semafor.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Information", "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "CNBC", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "the Associated Press", "url": "https://apnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Wall Street Journal", "url": "https://www.wsj.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "CNN", "url": "https://www.cnn.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Politico", "url": "https://www.politico.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "MSNBC", "url": "https://www.msnbc.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Washington Post", "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official government sources of ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The New York Times", "url": "https://www.nytimes.com", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 80, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 7 }, "last_price": 0.08, "implied_probability": 0.08, "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 22, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "jordan", "pope", "pope leo xiv", "travel" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-84L72F8MW6", "event_id": "CM-EVT-87B87RB6N9", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXPOPEVISIT-27JAN01-USA", "question": "Will Pope Leo XIV visit United States before Jan 1, 2027?", "description": "USA", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "USA: Kalshi staff determination based on reporting by The Guardian resolves whether the named religious figure visits the referenced country before January 1, 2027.", "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z", "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If Pope Leo XIV has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of the United States of America before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPhysical presence within the geographic boundaries is required - flying over without landing, airport layovers where the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual appearances, presence in international waters, or presence solely within embassy/consulate grounds do NOT count as visits. For cities, official municipal boundaries apply. For states/provinces, official boundaries apply. For countries, internationally recognized borders apply. International airports are considered within their host jurisdiction. Evidence must be reported by at least one Source Agency and may include official announcements, news reports with specific location details, verified photographs/videos at identifiable locations, flight records showing arrival, completed official schedules, or social media posts from official accounts. Visits that began before market issuance do not count. For multiple locations with OR logic, visiting any single location satisfies the criterion. For AND logic, all locations must be visited.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "The Guardian", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.theguardian.com", "sources": [ { "name": "The Guardian", "url": "https://www.theguardian.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official representatives or offices of ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Fox News", "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official social media accounts of or their official representatives", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Semafor", "url": "https://www.semafor.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Information", "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "CNBC", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "the Associated Press", "url": "https://apnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Wall Street Journal", "url": "https://www.wsj.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "CNN", "url": "https://www.cnn.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Politico", "url": "https://www.politico.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "MSNBC", "url": "https://www.msnbc.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Washington Post", "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official government sources of ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The New York Times", "url": "https://www.nytimes.com", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 80, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 7 }, "last_price": 0.08, "implied_probability": 0.08, "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 5750.3296, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "pope", "pope leo xiv", "travel", "usa" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-MC8S6K52W9", "event_id": "CM-EVT-87B87RB6N9", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXPOPEVISIT-27JAN01-BRA", "question": "Will Pope Leo XIV visit Brazil before Jan 1, 2027?", "description": "Brazil", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Brazil: Kalshi staff determination based on reporting by The Guardian resolves whether the named religious figure visits the referenced country before January 1, 2027.", "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z", "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If Pope Leo XIV has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Brazil before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPhysical presence within the geographic boundaries is required - flying over without landing, airport layovers where the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual appearances, presence in international waters, or presence solely within embassy/consulate grounds do NOT count as visits. For cities, official municipal boundaries apply. For states/provinces, official boundaries apply. For countries, internationally recognized borders apply. International airports are considered within their host jurisdiction. Evidence must be reported by at least one Source Agency and may include official announcements, news reports with specific location details, verified photographs/videos at identifiable locations, flight records showing arrival, completed official schedules, or social media posts from official accounts. Visits that began before market issuance do not count. For multiple locations with OR logic, visiting any single location satisfies the criterion. For AND logic, all locations must be visited.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "The Guardian", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.theguardian.com", "sources": [ { "name": "The Guardian", "url": "https://www.theguardian.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official representatives or offices of ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Fox News", "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official social media accounts of or their official representatives", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Semafor", "url": "https://www.semafor.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Information", "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "CNBC", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "the Associated Press", "url": "https://apnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Wall Street Journal", "url": "https://www.wsj.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "CNN", "url": "https://www.cnn.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Politico", "url": "https://www.politico.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "MSNBC", "url": "https://www.msnbc.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Washington Post", "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official government sources of ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The New York Times", "url": "https://www.nytimes.com", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 80, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 7 }, "last_price": 0.27, "implied_probability": 0.27, "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 1035.2529, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "brazil", "pope", "pope leo xiv", "travel" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-W6PS5QFTR6", "event_id": "CM-EVT-87B87RB6N9", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXPOPEVISIT-27JAN01-PHI", "question": "Will Pope Leo XIV visit Philippines before Jan 1, 2027?", "description": "Philippines", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Philippines: Kalshi staff determination based on reporting by The Guardian resolves whether the named religious figure visits the referenced country before January 1, 2027.", "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z", "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If Pope Leo XIV has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Philippines before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPhysical presence within the geographic boundaries is required - flying over without landing, airport layovers where the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual appearances, presence in international waters, or presence solely within embassy/consulate grounds do NOT count as visits. For cities, official municipal boundaries apply. For states/provinces, official boundaries apply. For countries, internationally recognized borders apply. International airports are considered within their host jurisdiction. Evidence must be reported by at least one Source Agency and may include official announcements, news reports with specific location details, verified photographs/videos at identifiable locations, flight records showing arrival, completed official schedules, or social media posts from official accounts. Visits that began before market issuance do not count. For multiple locations with OR logic, visiting any single location satisfies the criterion. For AND logic, all locations must be visited.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "The Guardian", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.theguardian.com", "sources": [ { "name": "The Guardian", "url": "https://www.theguardian.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official representatives or offices of ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Fox News", "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official social media accounts of or their official representatives", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Semafor", "url": "https://www.semafor.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Information", "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "CNBC", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "the Associated Press", "url": "https://apnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Wall Street Journal", "url": "https://www.wsj.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "CNN", "url": "https://www.cnn.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Politico", "url": "https://www.politico.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "MSNBC", "url": "https://www.msnbc.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Washington Post", "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official government sources of ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The New York Times", "url": "https://www.nytimes.com", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 80, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 7 }, "last_price": 0.15, "implied_probability": 0.15, "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 24.594, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "philippines", "pope", "pope leo xiv", "travel" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-GNGLN8HSQ5", "event_id": "CM-EVT-87B87RB6N9", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXPOPEVISIT-27JAN01-SSUD", "question": "Will Pope Leo XIV visit South Sudan before Jan 1, 2027?", "description": "South Sudan", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "South Sudan: Kalshi staff determination based on reporting by The Guardian resolves whether the named religious figure visits the referenced country before January 1, 2027.", "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z", "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If Pope Leo XIV has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of South Sudan before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPhysical presence within the geographic boundaries is required - flying over without landing, airport layovers where the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual appearances, presence in international waters, or presence solely within embassy/consulate grounds do NOT count as visits. For cities, official municipal boundaries apply. For states/provinces, official boundaries apply. For countries, internationally recognized borders apply. International airports are considered within their host jurisdiction. Evidence must be reported by at least one Source Agency and may include official announcements, news reports with specific location details, verified photographs/videos at identifiable locations, flight records showing arrival, completed official schedules, or social media posts from official accounts. Visits that began before market issuance do not count. For multiple locations with OR logic, visiting any single location satisfies the criterion. For AND logic, all locations must be visited.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "The Guardian", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.theguardian.com", "sources": [ { "name": "The Guardian", "url": "https://www.theguardian.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official representatives or offices of ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Fox News", "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official social media accounts of or their official representatives", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Semafor", "url": "https://www.semafor.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Information", "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "CNBC", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "the Associated Press", "url": "https://apnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Wall Street Journal", "url": "https://www.wsj.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "CNN", "url": "https://www.cnn.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Politico", "url": "https://www.politico.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "MSNBC", "url": "https://www.msnbc.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Washington Post", "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official government sources of ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The New York Times", "url": "https://www.nytimes.com", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 80, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 7 }, "last_price": 0.08, "implied_probability": 0.08, "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 249.8592, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "pope", "pope leo xiv", "south sudan", "travel" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-YR4NZ961F5", "event_id": "CM-EVT-87B87RB6N9", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXPOPEVISIT-27JAN01-UKR", "question": "Will Pope Leo XIV visit Ukraine before Jan 1, 2027?", "description": "Ukraine", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Ukraine: Kalshi staff determination based on reporting by The Guardian resolves whether the named religious figure visits the referenced country before January 1, 2027.", "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z", "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If Pope Leo XIV has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Ukraine before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPhysical presence within the geographic boundaries is required - flying over without landing, airport layovers where the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual appearances, presence in international waters, or presence solely within embassy/consulate grounds do NOT count as visits. For cities, official municipal boundaries apply. For states/provinces, official boundaries apply. For countries, internationally recognized borders apply. International airports are considered within their host jurisdiction. Evidence must be reported by at least one Source Agency and may include official announcements, news reports with specific location details, verified photographs/videos at identifiable locations, flight records showing arrival, completed official schedules, or social media posts from official accounts. Visits that began before market issuance do not count. For multiple locations with OR logic, visiting any single location satisfies the criterion. For AND logic, all locations must be visited.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "The Guardian", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.theguardian.com", "sources": [ { "name": "The Guardian", "url": "https://www.theguardian.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official representatives or offices of ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Fox News", "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official social media accounts of or their official representatives", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Semafor", "url": "https://www.semafor.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Information", "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "CNBC", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "the Associated Press", "url": "https://apnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Wall Street Journal", "url": "https://www.wsj.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "CNN", "url": "https://www.cnn.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Politico", "url": "https://www.politico.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "MSNBC", "url": "https://www.msnbc.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Washington Post", "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official government sources of ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The New York Times", "url": "https://www.nytimes.com", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 80, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 7 }, "last_price": 0.11, "implied_probability": 0.11, "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 968.7325999999999, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "pope", "pope leo xiv", "travel", "ukraine" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] } ], "resolution_log": [], "_provenance": { "source": "clearmarket.fyi", "ref": "CM-EVT-87B87RB6N9", "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi" } }