{ "_notice": { "type": "free_key_offer", "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.", "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/", "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change." }, "event_id": "CM-EVT-8Q0DSQ4JS2", "slug": "kxprimarymov-govnmnomr26", "question": "Will the New Mexico Republican Governor primary margin of victory exceed 10 percentage points?", "category": "politics", "event_type": "BINARY", "ladder_distribution": null, "tags": [ "politics", "2026-new-mexico-election", "republican-primary", "gubernatorial-race", "margin-threshold", "us-politics" ], "catalyst_types": [], "catalyst_dates": [], "editorial_notes": "This event tracks the margin of victory in the 2026 New Mexico Republican gubernatorial primary, resolving June 2, 2027. Kalshi structures two parallel candidate-specific ladders: one for Gregg Hull and one for Doug Turner. Each ladder prices discrete margin tiers rather than a binary threshold outcome. Official New Mexico election authorities serve as the authoritative source under Kalshi staff determination.", "venues_covered": [ "kalshi" ], "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-1WPQKSVX40", "current_primary_mark": { "last_price": 1, "implied_probability": 1 }, "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00", "markets": [ { "market_id": "CM-MKT-12D8543K68", "event_id": "CM-EVT-8Q0DSQ4JS2", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVNMNOMR26-GHUL-P1", "question": "Will the margin of victory for Gregg Hull in the 2026 New Mexico Republican gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 3%?", "description": "Gregg Hull, 0-3%", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Gregg Hull, 0-3%: Official New Mexico election authorities certify the named candidate's margin of victory in the 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary, resolved by Kalshi staff by June 2, 2027.", "close_at": "2026-06-27T23:54:16Z", "resolve_at": "2026-06-27T23:54:16Z", "status": "resolved", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Gregg Hull in the 2026 New Mexico Republican gubernatorial primary falls within 0% to 3%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Gregg Hull minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Gregg Hull if Gregg Hull wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Gregg Hull loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Gregg Hull minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Gregg Hull if Gregg Hull wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Gregg Hull loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Gregg Hull minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Gregg Hull wins, or the electoral votes received by Gregg Hull minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Gregg Hull does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Gregg Hull runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Gregg Hull will be summed.\n\nIf Gregg Hull wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Gregg Hull loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Gregg Hull ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Gregg Hull is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "sources": [ { "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 80, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 6 }, "last_price": 0, "implied_probability": 0, "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 19.27, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "2026", "gregg hull margin", "gubernatorial", "margin 0-3%", "new mexico", "republican primary" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-H7BTWL4PW4", "event_id": "CM-EVT-8Q0DSQ4JS2", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVNMNOMR26-GHUL-P4", "question": "Will the margin of victory for Gregg Hull in the 2026 New Mexico Republican gubernatorial primary be between 3% and 6%?", "description": "Gregg Hull, 3-6%", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Gregg Hull, 3-6%: Official New Mexico election authorities certify the named candidate's margin of victory in the 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary, resolved by Kalshi staff by June 2, 2027.", "close_at": "2026-06-27T23:54:16Z", "resolve_at": "2026-06-27T23:54:16Z", "status": "resolved", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Gregg Hull in the 2026 New Mexico Republican gubernatorial primary falls within 3% to 6%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Gregg Hull minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Gregg Hull if Gregg Hull wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Gregg Hull loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Gregg Hull minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Gregg Hull if Gregg Hull wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Gregg Hull loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Gregg Hull minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Gregg Hull wins, or the electoral votes received by Gregg Hull minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Gregg Hull does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Gregg Hull runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Gregg Hull will be summed.\n\nIf Gregg Hull wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Gregg Hull loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Gregg Hull ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Gregg Hull is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "sources": [ { "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 80, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 6 }, "last_price": 0, "implied_probability": 0, "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 124.84, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "2026", "gregg hull margin", "gubernatorial", "margin 3-6%", "new mexico", "republican primary" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZKHVFFRS45", "event_id": "CM-EVT-8Q0DSQ4JS2", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVNMNOMR26-GHUL-P7", "question": "Will the margin of victory for Gregg Hull in the 2026 New Mexico Republican gubernatorial primary be between 6% and 9%?", "description": "Gregg Hull, 6-9%", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Gregg Hull, 6-9%: Official New Mexico election authorities certify the named candidate's margin of victory in the 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary, resolved by Kalshi staff by June 2, 2027.", "close_at": "2026-06-27T23:54:16Z", "resolve_at": "2026-06-27T23:54:16Z", "status": "resolved", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Gregg Hull in the 2026 New Mexico Republican gubernatorial primary falls within 6% to 9%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Gregg Hull minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Gregg Hull if Gregg Hull wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Gregg Hull loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Gregg Hull minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Gregg Hull if Gregg Hull wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Gregg Hull loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Gregg Hull minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Gregg Hull wins, or the electoral votes received by Gregg Hull minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Gregg Hull does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Gregg Hull runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Gregg Hull will be summed.\n\nIf Gregg Hull wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Gregg Hull loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Gregg Hull ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Gregg Hull is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "sources": [ { "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 80, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 6 }, "last_price": 0, "implied_probability": 0, "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 39, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "2026", "gregg hull margin", "gubernatorial", "margin 6-9%", "new mexico", "republican primary" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-1WPQKSVX40", "event_id": "CM-EVT-8Q0DSQ4JS2", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVNMNOMR26-GHUL-P10", "question": "Will the margin of victory for Gregg Hull in the 2026 New Mexico Republican gubernatorial primary be between 9% and 12%?", "description": "Gregg Hull, 9-12%", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Gregg Hull, 9-12%: Official New Mexico election authorities certify the named candidate's margin of victory in the 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary, resolved by Kalshi staff by June 2, 2027.", "close_at": "2026-06-27T23:54:16Z", "resolve_at": "2026-06-27T23:54:16Z", "status": "resolved", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Gregg Hull in the 2026 New Mexico Republican gubernatorial primary falls within 9% to 12%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Gregg Hull minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Gregg Hull if Gregg Hull wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Gregg Hull loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Gregg Hull minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Gregg Hull if Gregg Hull wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Gregg Hull loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Gregg Hull minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Gregg Hull wins, or the electoral votes received by Gregg Hull minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Gregg Hull does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Gregg Hull runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Gregg Hull will be summed.\n\nIf Gregg Hull wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Gregg Hull loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Gregg Hull ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Gregg Hull is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "sources": [ { "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 80, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 6 }, "last_price": 1, "implied_probability": 1, "volume_24h_usd": 224.27, "volume_total_usd": 8492.08, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "2026", "gregg hull margin", "gubernatorial", "margin 9-12%", "new mexico", "republican primary" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-MV6PWSHBQ0", "event_id": "CM-EVT-8Q0DSQ4JS2", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVNMNOMR26-GHUL-P13", "question": "Will the margin of victory for Gregg Hull in the 2026 New Mexico Republican gubernatorial primary be between 12% and 15%?", "description": "Gregg Hull, 12-15%", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Gregg Hull, 12-15%: Official New Mexico election authorities certify the named candidate's margin of victory in the 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary, resolved by Kalshi staff by June 2, 2027.", "close_at": "2026-06-27T23:54:16Z", "resolve_at": "2026-06-27T23:54:16Z", "status": "resolved", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Gregg Hull in the 2026 New Mexico Republican gubernatorial primary falls within 12% to 15%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Gregg Hull minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Gregg Hull if Gregg Hull wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Gregg Hull loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Gregg Hull minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Gregg Hull if Gregg Hull wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Gregg Hull loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Gregg Hull minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Gregg Hull wins, or the electoral votes received by Gregg Hull minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Gregg Hull does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Gregg Hull runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Gregg Hull will be summed.\n\nIf Gregg Hull wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Gregg Hull loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Gregg Hull ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Gregg Hull is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "sources": [ { "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 80, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 6 }, "last_price": 0, "implied_probability": 0, "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 184.87, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "2026", "gregg hull margin", "gubernatorial", "margin 12-15%", "new mexico", "republican primary" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZV163300G3", "event_id": "CM-EVT-8Q0DSQ4JS2", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVNMNOMR26-DTUR-P1", "question": "Will the margin of victory for Doug Turner in the 2026 New Mexico Republican gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 3%?", "description": "Doug Turner, 0-3%", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Doug Turner, 0-3%: Official New Mexico election authorities certify the named candidate's margin of victory in the 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary, resolved by Kalshi staff by June 2, 2027.", "close_at": "2026-06-27T23:54:16Z", "resolve_at": "2026-06-27T23:54:16Z", "status": "resolved", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Doug Turner in the 2026 New Mexico Republican gubernatorial primary falls within 0% to 3%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Doug Turner minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Doug Turner if Doug Turner wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Doug Turner loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Doug Turner minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Doug Turner if Doug Turner wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Doug Turner loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Doug Turner minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Doug Turner wins, or the electoral votes received by Doug Turner minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Doug Turner does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Doug Turner runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Doug Turner will be summed.\n\nIf Doug Turner wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Doug Turner loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Doug Turner ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Doug Turner is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "sources": [ { "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 80, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 6 }, "last_price": 0, "implied_probability": 0, "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 51.88, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "2026", "doug turner margin", "gubernatorial", "margin 0-3%", "new mexico", "republican primary" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-NDBRD72WQ5", "event_id": "CM-EVT-8Q0DSQ4JS2", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVNMNOMR26-DTUR-P4", "question": "Will the margin of victory for Doug Turner in the 2026 New Mexico Republican gubernatorial primary be between 3% and 6%?", "description": "Doug Turner, 3-6%", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Doug Turner, 3-6%: Official New Mexico election authorities certify the named candidate's margin of victory in the 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary, resolved by Kalshi staff by June 2, 2027.", "close_at": "2026-06-27T23:54:16Z", "resolve_at": "2026-06-27T23:54:16Z", "status": "resolved", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Doug Turner in the 2026 New Mexico Republican gubernatorial primary falls within 3% to 6%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Doug Turner minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Doug Turner if Doug Turner wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Doug Turner loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Doug Turner minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Doug Turner if Doug Turner wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Doug Turner loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Doug Turner minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Doug Turner wins, or the electoral votes received by Doug Turner minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Doug Turner does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Doug Turner runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Doug Turner will be summed.\n\nIf Doug Turner wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Doug Turner loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Doug Turner ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Doug Turner is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "sources": [ { "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 80, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 6 }, "last_price": 0, "implied_probability": 0, "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 16.48, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "2026", "doug turner margin", "gubernatorial", "margin 3-6%", "new mexico", "republican primary" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-3H9KM6KBK3", "event_id": "CM-EVT-8Q0DSQ4JS2", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVNMNOMR26-DTUR-P7", "question": "Will the margin of victory for Doug Turner in the 2026 New Mexico Republican gubernatorial primary be between 6% and 9%?", "description": "Doug Turner, 6-9%", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Doug Turner, 6-9%: Official New Mexico election authorities certify the named candidate's margin of victory in the 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary, resolved by Kalshi staff by June 2, 2027.", "close_at": "2026-06-27T23:54:16Z", "resolve_at": "2026-06-27T23:54:16Z", "status": "resolved", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Doug Turner in the 2026 New Mexico Republican gubernatorial primary falls within 6% to 9%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Doug Turner minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Doug Turner if Doug Turner wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Doug Turner loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Doug Turner minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Doug Turner if Doug Turner wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Doug Turner loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Doug Turner minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Doug Turner wins, or the electoral votes received by Doug Turner minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Doug Turner does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Doug Turner runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Doug Turner will be summed.\n\nIf Doug Turner wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Doug Turner loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Doug Turner ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Doug Turner is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "sources": [ { "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 80, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 6 }, "last_price": 0, "implied_probability": 0, "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 17.57, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "2026", "doug turner margin", "gubernatorial", "margin 6-9%", "new mexico", "republican primary" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-SMHPFV2101", "event_id": "CM-EVT-8Q0DSQ4JS2", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVNMNOMR26-DTUR-P54", "question": "Will the margin of victory for Doug Turner in the 2026 New Mexico Republican gubernatorial primary be above 9%?", "description": "Doug Turner, ≥9%", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Doug Turner, ≥9%: Official New Mexico election authorities certify the named candidate's margin of victory in the 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary, resolved by Kalshi staff by June 2, 2027.", "close_at": "2026-06-27T23:54:16Z", "resolve_at": "2026-06-27T23:54:16Z", "status": "resolved", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Doug Turner in the 2026 New Mexico Republican gubernatorial primary falls within 9% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Doug Turner minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Doug Turner if Doug Turner wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Doug Turner loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Doug Turner minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Doug Turner if Doug Turner wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Doug Turner loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Doug Turner minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Doug Turner wins, or the electoral votes received by Doug Turner minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Doug Turner does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Doug Turner runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Doug Turner will be summed.\n\nIf Doug Turner wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Doug Turner loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Doug Turner ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. 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