{
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-W343V1FP64",
  "slug": "kxprimarymov-govscnomr26",
  "question": "What will be the margin of victory in the South Carolina Republican Governor primary first round?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "south-carolina-politics",
    "republican-primary",
    "gubernatorial-race",
    "margin-of-victory",
    "2027-election"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the margin of victory in the 2027 South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary first round. Kalshi structures the event across discrete margin tiers for three named candidates: Pamela Evette, Alan Wilson, and Ralph Norman. Evette markets subdivide into six strike thresholds spanning 0-5% through 25% or greater. Resolution relies on Kalshi staff determination using certified results from South Carolina's official election authority.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-KXQ7HM9131",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 1,
    "implied_probability": 1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KXQ7HM9131",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W343V1FP64",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVSCNOMR26-PEVE-P2",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Pamela Evette in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 5%?",
      "description": "Pamela Evette, 0-5%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Pamela Evette, 0-5%: South Carolina's official election authority will certify the margin of victory in the first round of the 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary, with Kalshi staff determining outcome classification by June 9, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-16T14:45:54Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-16T14:45:54Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Pamela Evette in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary falls within 0% to 5%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Pamela Evette minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Pamela Evette if Pamela Evette wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Pamela Evette loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Pamela Evette minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Pamela Evette if Pamela Evette wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Pamela Evette loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Pamela Evette minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Pamela Evette wins, or the electoral votes received by Pamela Evette minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Pamela Evette does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Pamela Evette runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Pamela Evette will be summed.\n\nIf Pamela Evette wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Pamela Evette loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Pamela Evette ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Pamela Evette is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 757.11,
      "volume_total_usd": 12170.06,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "evette",
        "governor",
        "margin",
        "pamela evette margin",
        "republican primary",
        "south carolina"
      ],
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0P103BGWJ2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W343V1FP64",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVSCNOMR26-PEVE-P7",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Pamela Evette in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary be between 5% and 10%?",
      "description": "Pamela Evette, 5-10%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Pamela Evette, 5-10%: South Carolina's official election authority will certify the margin of victory in the first round of the 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary, with Kalshi staff determining outcome classification by June 9, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-16T14:45:54Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-16T14:45:54Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Pamela Evette in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary falls within 5% to 10%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Pamela Evette minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Pamela Evette if Pamela Evette wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Pamela Evette loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Pamela Evette minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Pamela Evette if Pamela Evette wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Pamela Evette loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Pamela Evette minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Pamela Evette wins, or the electoral votes received by Pamela Evette minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Pamela Evette does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Pamela Evette runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Pamela Evette will be summed.\n\nIf Pamela Evette wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Pamela Evette loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Pamela Evette ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Pamela Evette is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
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      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "evette",
        "governor",
        "margin",
        "pamela evette margin",
        "republican primary",
        "south carolina"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YD4088YRS7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W343V1FP64",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVSCNOMR26-PEVE-P12",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Pamela Evette in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary be between 10% and 15%?",
      "description": "Pamela Evette, 10-15%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Pamela Evette, 10-15%: South Carolina's official election authority will certify the margin of victory in the first round of the 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary, with Kalshi staff determining outcome classification by June 9, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-16T14:45:54Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-16T14:45:54Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Pamela Evette in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary falls within 10% to 15%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Pamela Evette minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Pamela Evette if Pamela Evette wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Pamela Evette loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Pamela Evette minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Pamela Evette if Pamela Evette wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Pamela Evette loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Pamela Evette minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Pamela Evette wins, or the electoral votes received by Pamela Evette minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Pamela Evette does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Pamela Evette runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Pamela Evette will be summed.\n\nIf Pamela Evette wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Pamela Evette loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Pamela Evette ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Pamela Evette is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
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        "score": 80,
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": 0,
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      "volume_total_usd": 30.5,
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      "tags": [
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        "evette",
        "governor",
        "margin",
        "pamela evette margin",
        "republican primary",
        "south carolina"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2CG5HG2X23",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W343V1FP64",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVSCNOMR26-PEVE-P17",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Pamela Evette in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary be between 15% and 20%?",
      "description": "Pamela Evette, 15-20%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Pamela Evette, 15-20%: South Carolina's official election authority will certify the margin of victory in the first round of the 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary, with Kalshi staff determining outcome classification by June 9, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-16T14:45:54Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-16T14:45:54Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Pamela Evette in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary falls within 15% to 20%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Pamela Evette minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Pamela Evette if Pamela Evette wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Pamela Evette loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Pamela Evette minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Pamela Evette if Pamela Evette wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Pamela Evette loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Pamela Evette minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Pamela Evette wins, or the electoral votes received by Pamela Evette minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Pamela Evette does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Pamela Evette runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Pamela Evette will be summed.\n\nIf Pamela Evette wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Pamela Evette loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Pamela Evette ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Pamela Evette is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
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        "score": 80,
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      "tags": [
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        "evette",
        "governor",
        "margin",
        "pamela evette margin",
        "republican primary",
        "south carolina"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YP8P0X4LC0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W343V1FP64",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVSCNOMR26-PEVE-P22",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Pamela Evette in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary be between 20% and 25%?",
      "description": "Pamela Evette, 20-25%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Pamela Evette, 20-25%: South Carolina's official election authority will certify the margin of victory in the first round of the 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary, with Kalshi staff determining outcome classification by June 9, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-16T14:45:54Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-16T14:45:54Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Pamela Evette in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary falls within 20% to 25%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Pamela Evette minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Pamela Evette if Pamela Evette wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Pamela Evette loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Pamela Evette minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Pamela Evette if Pamela Evette wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Pamela Evette loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Pamela Evette minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Pamela Evette wins, or the electoral votes received by Pamela Evette minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Pamela Evette does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Pamela Evette runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Pamela Evette will be summed.\n\nIf Pamela Evette wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Pamela Evette loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Pamela Evette ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Pamela Evette is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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      "tags": [
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        "evette",
        "governor",
        "margin",
        "pamela evette margin",
        "republican primary",
        "south carolina"
      ],
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Y5FHZ9C1H8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W343V1FP64",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVSCNOMR26-PEVE-P62",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Pamela Evette in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary be above 25%?",
      "description": "Pamela Evette, ≥25%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Pamela Evette, ≥25%: South Carolina's official election authority will certify the margin of victory in the first round of the 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary, with Kalshi staff determining outcome classification by June 9, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-16T14:45:54Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-16T14:45:54Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Pamela Evette in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary falls within 25% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Pamela Evette minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Pamela Evette if Pamela Evette wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Pamela Evette loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Pamela Evette minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Pamela Evette if Pamela Evette wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Pamela Evette loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Pamela Evette minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Pamela Evette wins, or the electoral votes received by Pamela Evette minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Pamela Evette does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Pamela Evette runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Pamela Evette will be summed.\n\nIf Pamela Evette wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Pamela Evette loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Pamela Evette ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Pamela Evette is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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