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    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-VH1M0CS0G0",
  "slug": "kxprimarymov-govsdnomrlrho",
  "question": "Larry Rhoden South Dakota governor primary margin of victory, July 2027",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      40,
      45
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    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 10,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 15,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 20,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 25,
        "prob": 99
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      {
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        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 35,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 40,
        "prob": 99
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      {
        "threshold": 45,
        "prob": 1
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      {
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        "prob": 1
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    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-politics",
    "south-dakota",
    "gubernatorial-election",
    "republican-primary",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Larry Rhoden's margin of victory in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff. Kalshi structures the event as a ladder of binary strike thresholds, from 10% to 50%, each asking whether Rhoden's certified margin clears that level. The implied probability distribution across strikes allows traders to read the market's consensus on margin magnitude, not merely outcome. Resolution relies on Kalshi staff determination using South Dakota's official election authority certification.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-JMDYZWR8C5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0,
    "as_of": "2026-09-17T21:46:04.037Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VH1M0CS0G0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVSDNOMRLRHO-LRHO-P55",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Larry Rhoden in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff be at least 10%?",
      "description": "Larry Rhoden, ≥10%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Larry Rhoden, ≥10%: South Dakota's official election authority certifies the margin of victory for the named candidate in the 2026 Republican gubernatorial runoff by July 28, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-07-28T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-07-28T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXPRIMARYMOV, notice id ELECTIONMOV-bulk-2026-04-10):\n**Important information:** Settlement occurs only after results are officially certified.\n[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]\n\nIf the margin of victory for Larry Rhoden in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff falls within 10% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory is the vote share received by Larry Rhoden minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Larry Rhoden if Larry Rhoden wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Larry Rhoden loses. If Larry Rhoden wins, the margin will be positive; if Larry Rhoden loses, the margin will be negative; if Larry Rhoden ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Larry Rhoden runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.",
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        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-17T21:46:04.037Z",
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      "volume_total_usd": 1740.3408,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 10,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "larry rhoden margin",
        "republican",
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        "south dakota"
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      "platform": "kalshi",
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      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Larry Rhoden in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff be at least 15%?",
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      "implied_probability": 1,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-17T21:46:04.037Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 1.0197,
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      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVSDNOMRLRHO-LRHO-P60",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Larry Rhoden in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff be at least 20%?",
      "description": "Larry Rhoden, ≥20%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Larry Rhoden, ≥20%: South Dakota's official election authority certifies the margin of victory for the named candidate in the 2026 Republican gubernatorial runoff by July 28, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-07-28T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-07-28T14:00:00Z",
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-17T21:46:04.037Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 106.0884,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
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      "question_id": null,
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      "platform": "kalshi",
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      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Larry Rhoden in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff be at least 25%?",
      "description": "Larry Rhoden, ≥25%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "close_at": "2027-07-28T14:00:00Z",
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      "platform": "kalshi",
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      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Larry Rhoden in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff be at least 30%?",
      "description": "Larry Rhoden, ≥30%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Larry Rhoden, ≥30%: South Dakota's official election authority certifies the margin of victory for the named candidate in the 2026 Republican gubernatorial runoff by July 28, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-07-28T14:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXPRIMARYMOV, notice id ELECTIONMOV-bulk-2026-04-10):\n**Important information:** Settlement occurs only after results are officially certified.\n[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]\n\nIf the margin of victory for Larry Rhoden in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff falls within 30% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory is the vote share received by Larry Rhoden minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Larry Rhoden if Larry Rhoden wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Larry Rhoden loses. If Larry Rhoden wins, the margin will be positive; if Larry Rhoden loses, the margin will be negative; if Larry Rhoden ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Larry Rhoden runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Larry Rhoden in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff be at least 35%?",
      "description": "Larry Rhoden, ≥35%",
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      "underlying_reference": "Larry Rhoden, ≥35%: South Dakota's official election authority certifies the margin of victory for the named candidate in the 2026 Republican gubernatorial runoff by July 28, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-07-28T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-07-28T14:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXPRIMARYMOV, notice id ELECTIONMOV-bulk-2026-04-10):\n**Important information:** Settlement occurs only after results are officially certified.\n[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]\n\nIf the margin of victory for Larry Rhoden in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff falls within 35% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory is the vote share received by Larry Rhoden minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Larry Rhoden if Larry Rhoden wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Larry Rhoden loses. If Larry Rhoden wins, the margin will be positive; if Larry Rhoden loses, the margin will be negative; if Larry Rhoden ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Larry Rhoden runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.",
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