{
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    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-KZPXP2LDK6",
  "slug": "kxprimarymov-govwinomd26",
  "question": "Will the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary margin of victory be at least 5 percentage points?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "wisconsin-politics",
    "democratic-primary",
    "gubernatorial-election",
    "margin-of-victory",
    "2027-election"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the margin of victory for each candidate in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary. Kalshi structures both candidates identically: six discrete percentage-tier brackets per candidate, from 0-3% through 15% or greater. The cross-platform insight here is candidate-level: Kalshi prices Hong's margin separately from Crowley's, isolating each winner's spread rather than a single unified outcome. All twelve markets resolve via Kalshi staff determination against official Wisconsin election results.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-5GV2FKYRH4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.72
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  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CYLX1MSTD7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KZPXP2LDK6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVWINOMD26-FHON-P1",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 3%?",
      "description": "Francesca Hong, 0-3%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Francesca Hong, 0-3%: The named candidate's margin of victory in the referenced primary resolves according to official results certified by Wisconsin's election authority, with deadline August 11, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-08-11T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-08-11T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXPRIMARYMOV, notice id ELECTIONMOV-bulk-2026-04-10):\n**Important information:** Settlement occurs only after results are officially certified.\n[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]\n\nIf the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary falls within 0% to 3%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory is the vote share received by Francesca Hong minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Francesca Hong if Francesca Hong wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Francesca Hong loses. If Francesca Hong wins, the margin will be positive; if Francesca Hong loses, the margin will be negative; if Francesca Hong ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Francesca Hong runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
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      },
      "rcg": {
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        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": 0.07,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 49.25,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "democratic",
        "francesca hong margin",
        "governor",
        "primary",
        "wisconsin"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KZPXP2LDK6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVWINOMD26-FHON-P4",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 3% and 6%?",
      "description": "Francesca Hong, 3-6%",
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      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Francesca Hong, 3-6%: The named candidate's margin of victory in the referenced primary resolves according to official results certified by Wisconsin's election authority, with deadline August 11, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-08-11T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-08-11T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXPRIMARYMOV, notice id ELECTIONMOV-bulk-2026-04-10):\n**Important information:** Settlement occurs only after results are officially certified.\n[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]\n\nIf the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary falls within 3% to 6%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory is the vote share received by Francesca Hong minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Francesca Hong if Francesca Hong wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Francesca Hong loses. If Francesca Hong wins, the margin will be positive; if Francesca Hong loses, the margin will be negative; if Francesca Hong ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Francesca Hong runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 20.05,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "governor",
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        "wisconsin"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-81XYHTXNN4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KZPXP2LDK6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVWINOMD26-FHON-P7",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 6% and 9%?",
      "description": "Francesca Hong, 6-9%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Francesca Hong, 6-9%: The named candidate's margin of victory in the referenced primary resolves according to official results certified by Wisconsin's election authority, with deadline August 11, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-08-11T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-08-11T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXPRIMARYMOV, notice id ELECTIONMOV-bulk-2026-04-10):\n**Important information:** Settlement occurs only after results are officially certified.\n[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]\n\nIf the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary falls within 6% to 9%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory is the vote share received by Francesca Hong minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Francesca Hong if Francesca Hong wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Francesca Hong loses. If Francesca Hong wins, the margin will be positive; if Francesca Hong loses, the margin will be negative; if Francesca Hong ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Francesca Hong runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.06,
      "implied_probability": 0.06,
      "volume_24h_usd": 8.15,
      "volume_total_usd": 37.34,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "democratic",
        "francesca hong margin",
        "governor",
        "primary",
        "wisconsin"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XMP2D8SWD3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KZPXP2LDK6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVWINOMD26-FHON-P10",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 9% and 12%?",
      "description": "Francesca Hong, 9-12%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Francesca Hong, 9-12%: The named candidate's margin of victory in the referenced primary resolves according to official results certified by Wisconsin's election authority, with deadline August 11, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-08-11T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-08-11T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXPRIMARYMOV, notice id ELECTIONMOV-bulk-2026-04-10):\n**Important information:** Settlement occurs only after results are officially certified.\n[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]\n\nIf the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary falls within 9% to 12%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory is the vote share received by Francesca Hong minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Francesca Hong if Francesca Hong wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Francesca Hong loses. If Francesca Hong wins, the margin will be positive; if Francesca Hong loses, the margin will be negative; if Francesca Hong ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Francesca Hong runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.06,
      "implied_probability": 0.06,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 40.41,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
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      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "democratic",
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        "governor",
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        "wisconsin"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-85LKLLXRJ1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KZPXP2LDK6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVWINOMD26-FHON-P13",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 12% and 15%?",
      "description": "Francesca Hong, 12-15%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Francesca Hong, 12-15%: The named candidate's margin of victory in the referenced primary resolves according to official results certified by Wisconsin's election authority, with deadline August 11, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-08-11T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-08-11T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXPRIMARYMOV, notice id ELECTIONMOV-bulk-2026-04-10):\n**Important information:** Settlement occurs only after results are officially certified.\n[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]\n\nIf the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary falls within 12% to 15%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory is the vote share received by Francesca Hong minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Francesca Hong if Francesca Hong wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Francesca Hong loses. If Francesca Hong wins, the margin will be positive; if Francesca Hong loses, the margin will be negative; if Francesca Hong ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Francesca Hong runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": 0.12,
      "volume_24h_usd": 21.68,
      "volume_total_usd": 120.13,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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        "democratic",
        "francesca hong margin",
        "governor",
        "primary",
        "wisconsin"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5GV2FKYRH4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KZPXP2LDK6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVWINOMD26-FHON-P57",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be at least 15%?",
      "description": "Francesca Hong, ≥15%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Francesca Hong, ≥15%: The named candidate's margin of victory in the referenced primary resolves according to official results certified by Wisconsin's election authority, with deadline August 11, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-08-11T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-08-11T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXPRIMARYMOV, notice id ELECTIONMOV-bulk-2026-04-10):\n**Important information:** Settlement occurs only after results are officially certified.\n[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]\n\nIf the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary falls within 15% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory is the vote share received by Francesca Hong minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Francesca Hong if Francesca Hong wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Francesca Hong loses. If Francesca Hong wins, the margin will be positive; if Francesca Hong loses, the margin will be negative; if Francesca Hong ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Francesca Hong runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.72,
      "implied_probability": 0.72,
      "volume_24h_usd": 5244.54,
      "volume_total_usd": 15462.93,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "democratic",
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        "governor",
        "primary",
        "wisconsin"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8XD09J2CK3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KZPXP2LDK6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVWINOMD26-DCRO-P1",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for David Crowley in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 3%?",
      "description": "David Crowley, 0-3%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "David Crowley, 0-3%: The named candidate's margin of victory in the referenced primary resolves according to official results certified by Wisconsin's election authority, with deadline August 11, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-08-11T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-08-11T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXPRIMARYMOV, notice id ELECTIONMOV-bulk-2026-04-10):\n**Important information:** Settlement occurs only after results are officially certified.\n[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]\n\nIf the margin of victory for David Crowley in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary falls within 0% to 3%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory is the vote share received by David Crowley minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind David Crowley if David Crowley wins, or the candidate that finishes first if David Crowley loses. If David Crowley wins, the margin will be positive; if David Crowley loses, the margin will be negative; if David Crowley ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If David Crowley runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "score": 80,
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.04,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0.93,
      "volume_total_usd": 393.62,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "david crowley margin",
        "democratic",
        "governor",
        "primary",
        "wisconsin"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
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