{
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    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-GCZLRSF2K2",
  "slug": "kxprimarymov-kxsenatemid26",
  "question": "What will be the margin of victory in the Michigan Democratic Senate primary?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "michigan-politics",
    "democratic-primary",
    "senate-election",
    "margin-of-victory",
    "2027-election"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the margin of victory for named candidates in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary. Kalshi prices discrete margin tiers (0-3%, 3-6%, up to 15%+) separately for El-Sayed, Stevens, and McMorrow. Each tier is mutually exclusive per candidate, creating a distributional spread across the field. Kalshi staff determination resolves against official Michigan election authority certification.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-DB5NG32W36",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.08
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CDD9N41MS2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GCZLRSF2K2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26-AELS-P1",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 0% and 3%?",
      "description": "Abdul El-Sayed, 0-3%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Abdul El-Sayed, 0-3%: Official Michigan election authority certification of the named candidate's margin of victory in the 2026 Democratic Senate primary, reported by Kalshi staff by August 4, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-08-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-08-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary falls within 0% to 3%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Abdul El-Sayed minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Abdul El-Sayed if Abdul El-Sayed wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Abdul El-Sayed loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Abdul El-Sayed minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Abdul El-Sayed if Abdul El-Sayed wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Abdul El-Sayed loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Abdul El-Sayed minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Abdul El-Sayed wins, or the electoral votes received by Abdul El-Sayed minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Abdul El-Sayed does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Abdul El-Sayed runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Abdul El-Sayed will be summed.\n\nIf Abdul El-Sayed wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Abdul El-Sayed loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Abdul El-Sayed ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Abdul El-Sayed is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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          }
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.14,
      "implied_probability": 0.14,
      "volume_24h_usd": 87.7296,
      "volume_total_usd": 1771.882,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
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      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "abdul el sayed",
        "abdul el-sayed",
        "democratic",
        "margin",
        "michigan",
        "primary",
        "senate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9VRD8Q46W7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GCZLRSF2K2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26-AELS-P4",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 3% and 6%?",
      "description": "Abdul El-Sayed, 3-6%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Abdul El-Sayed, 3-6%: Official Michigan election authority certification of the named candidate's margin of victory in the 2026 Democratic Senate primary, reported by Kalshi staff by August 4, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-08-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-08-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary falls within 3% to 6%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Abdul El-Sayed minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Abdul El-Sayed if Abdul El-Sayed wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Abdul El-Sayed loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Abdul El-Sayed minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Abdul El-Sayed if Abdul El-Sayed wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Abdul El-Sayed loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Abdul El-Sayed minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Abdul El-Sayed wins, or the electoral votes received by Abdul El-Sayed minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Abdul El-Sayed does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Abdul El-Sayed runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Abdul El-Sayed will be summed.\n\nIf Abdul El-Sayed wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Abdul El-Sayed loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Abdul El-Sayed ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Abdul El-Sayed is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
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        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
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            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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        "score": 80,
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.14,
      "implied_probability": 0.14,
      "volume_24h_usd": 196.3514,
      "volume_total_usd": 1472.8602,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "abdul el sayed",
        "abdul el-sayed",
        "democratic",
        "margin",
        "michigan",
        "primary",
        "senate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PL869YTQF1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GCZLRSF2K2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26-AELS-P7",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 6% and 9%?",
      "description": "Abdul El-Sayed, 6-9%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Abdul El-Sayed, 6-9%: Official Michigan election authority certification of the named candidate's margin of victory in the 2026 Democratic Senate primary, reported by Kalshi staff by August 4, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-08-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-08-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary falls within 6% to 9%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Abdul El-Sayed minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Abdul El-Sayed if Abdul El-Sayed wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Abdul El-Sayed loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Abdul El-Sayed minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Abdul El-Sayed if Abdul El-Sayed wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Abdul El-Sayed loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Abdul El-Sayed minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Abdul El-Sayed wins, or the electoral votes received by Abdul El-Sayed minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Abdul El-Sayed does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Abdul El-Sayed runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Abdul El-Sayed will be summed.\n\nIf Abdul El-Sayed wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Abdul El-Sayed loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Abdul El-Sayed ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Abdul El-Sayed is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
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        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.13,
      "implied_probability": 0.13,
      "volume_24h_usd": 205.1088,
      "volume_total_usd": 1898.3913,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "abdul el sayed",
        "abdul el-sayed",
        "democratic",
        "margin",
        "michigan",
        "primary",
        "senate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-L1VSK52TK5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GCZLRSF2K2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26-AELS-P10",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 9% and 12%?",
      "description": "Abdul El-Sayed, 9-12%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Abdul El-Sayed, 9-12%: Official Michigan election authority certification of the named candidate's margin of victory in the 2026 Democratic Senate primary, reported by Kalshi staff by August 4, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-08-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-08-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary falls within 9% to 12%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Abdul El-Sayed minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Abdul El-Sayed if Abdul El-Sayed wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Abdul El-Sayed loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Abdul El-Sayed minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Abdul El-Sayed if Abdul El-Sayed wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Abdul El-Sayed loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Abdul El-Sayed minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Abdul El-Sayed wins, or the electoral votes received by Abdul El-Sayed minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Abdul El-Sayed does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Abdul El-Sayed runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Abdul El-Sayed will be summed.\n\nIf Abdul El-Sayed wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Abdul El-Sayed loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Abdul El-Sayed ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Abdul El-Sayed is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
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            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.09,
      "implied_probability": 0.09,
      "volume_24h_usd": 27.9396,
      "volume_total_usd": 737.505,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "abdul el sayed",
        "abdul el-sayed",
        "democratic",
        "margin",
        "michigan",
        "primary",
        "senate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FM31S7CJV0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GCZLRSF2K2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26-AELS-P13",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 12% and 15%?",
      "description": "Abdul El-Sayed, 12-15%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Abdul El-Sayed, 12-15%: Official Michigan election authority certification of the named candidate's margin of victory in the 2026 Democratic Senate primary, reported by Kalshi staff by August 4, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-08-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-08-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary falls within 12% to 15%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Abdul El-Sayed minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Abdul El-Sayed if Abdul El-Sayed wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Abdul El-Sayed loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Abdul El-Sayed minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Abdul El-Sayed if Abdul El-Sayed wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Abdul El-Sayed loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Abdul El-Sayed minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Abdul El-Sayed wins, or the electoral votes received by Abdul El-Sayed minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Abdul El-Sayed does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Abdul El-Sayed runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Abdul El-Sayed will be summed.\n\nIf Abdul El-Sayed wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Abdul El-Sayed loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Abdul El-Sayed ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Abdul El-Sayed is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.08,
      "implied_probability": 0.08,
      "volume_24h_usd": 16.9392,
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      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "abdul el sayed",
        "abdul el-sayed",
        "democratic",
        "margin",
        "michigan",
        "primary",
        "senate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DB5NG32W36",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GCZLRSF2K2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26-AELS-P57",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be above 15%?",
      "description": "Abdul El-Sayed, ≥15%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Abdul El-Sayed, ≥15%: Official Michigan election authority certification of the named candidate's margin of victory in the 2026 Democratic Senate primary, reported by Kalshi staff by August 4, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-08-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-08-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary falls within 15% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Abdul El-Sayed minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Abdul El-Sayed if Abdul El-Sayed wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Abdul El-Sayed loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Abdul El-Sayed minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Abdul El-Sayed if Abdul El-Sayed wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Abdul El-Sayed loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Abdul El-Sayed minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Abdul El-Sayed wins, or the electoral votes received by Abdul El-Sayed minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Abdul El-Sayed does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Abdul El-Sayed runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Abdul El-Sayed will be summed.\n\nIf Abdul El-Sayed wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Abdul El-Sayed loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Abdul El-Sayed ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Abdul El-Sayed is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.08,
      "implied_probability": 0.08,
      "volume_24h_usd": 31.9736,
      "volume_total_usd": 5526.064,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 0% and 3%?",
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      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 3% and 6%?",
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      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 6% and 9%?",
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      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 9% and 12%?",
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      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 12% and 15%?",
      "description": "Haley Stevens, 12-15%",
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        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary falls within 12% to 15%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Haley Stevens minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Haley Stevens if Haley Stevens wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Haley Stevens loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Haley Stevens minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Haley Stevens if Haley Stevens wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Haley Stevens loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Haley Stevens minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Haley Stevens wins, or the electoral votes received by Haley Stevens minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Haley Stevens does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Haley Stevens runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Haley Stevens will be summed.\n\nIf Haley Stevens wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Haley Stevens loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Haley Stevens ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Haley Stevens is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
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      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be above 15%?",
      "description": "Haley Stevens, ≥15%",
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        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary falls within 15% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Haley Stevens minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Haley Stevens if Haley Stevens wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Haley Stevens loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Haley Stevens minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Haley Stevens if Haley Stevens wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Haley Stevens loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Haley Stevens minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Haley Stevens wins, or the electoral votes received by Haley Stevens minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Haley Stevens does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Haley Stevens runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Haley Stevens will be summed.\n\nIf Haley Stevens wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Haley Stevens loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Haley Stevens ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Haley Stevens is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
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      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Mallory McMorrow in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be above 0%?",
      "description": "Mallory McMorrow wins",
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      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Mallory McMorrow in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary falls within 0% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Mallory McMorrow minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Mallory McMorrow if Mallory McMorrow wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Mallory McMorrow loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Mallory McMorrow minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Mallory McMorrow if Mallory McMorrow wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Mallory McMorrow loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Mallory McMorrow minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Mallory McMorrow wins, or the electoral votes received by Mallory McMorrow minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Mallory McMorrow does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Mallory McMorrow runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Mallory McMorrow will be summed.\n\nIf Mallory McMorrow wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Mallory McMorrow loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Mallory McMorrow ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Mallory McMorrow is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.06,
      "implied_probability": 0.06,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 55.4898,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "democratic",
        "mallory mcmorrow",
        "mallory mcmorrow wins",
        "michigan",
        "primary",
        "senate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-GCZLRSF2K2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}