{
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-FH6177M0Y7",
  "slug": "kxprimarymov-ky4r26",
  "question": "Will the margin of victory for Ed Gallrein in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 5% and 10%?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "2026-election",
    "republican-primary",
    "kentucky-politics",
    "margin-of-victory",
    "electoral-outcome"
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  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the margin of victory in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary between incumbent Thomas Massie and challenger Ed Gallrein. Kalshi structures both candidates' margins into discrete tiers: 0-5%, 5-10%, 10-15%, 15-20%, and above 20%. The two candidate sets are mirror instruments; pricing across them implies an embedded outcome probability. The Kentucky State Board of Elections certifies official results, with Kalshi staff determination as the resolution mechanism.",
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-SYSP6PZ7W9",
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  "created_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KT24RHGZ55",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FH6177M0Y7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-KY4R26-EGAL-P60",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Ed Gallrein in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be above 20%?",
      "description": "Ed Gallrein, ≥20%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Kentucky State Board of Elections certifies the official results for the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary election.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-09T00:26:03Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-09T00:26:03Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Ed Gallrein in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary falls within 20% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Ed Gallrein minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ed Gallrein if Ed Gallrein wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Ed Gallrein loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Ed Gallrein minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ed Gallrein if Ed Gallrein wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Ed Gallrein loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Ed Gallrein minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Ed Gallrein wins, or the electoral votes received by Ed Gallrein minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Ed Gallrein does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Ed Gallrein runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Ed Gallrein will be summed.\n\nIf Ed Gallrein wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Ed Gallrein loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Ed Gallrein ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Ed Gallrein is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
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      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Ed Gallrein in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 15% and 20%?",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FH6177M0Y7",
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      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Ed Gallrein in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 10% and 15%?",
      "description": "Ed Gallrein, 10-15%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "close_at": "2026-06-09T00:26:03Z",
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      "status": "resolved",
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        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Ed Gallrein in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary falls within 10% to 15%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Ed Gallrein minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ed Gallrein if Ed Gallrein wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Ed Gallrein loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Ed Gallrein minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ed Gallrein if Ed Gallrein wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Ed Gallrein loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Ed Gallrein minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Ed Gallrein wins, or the electoral votes received by Ed Gallrein minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Ed Gallrein does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Ed Gallrein runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Ed Gallrein will be summed.\n\nIf Ed Gallrein wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Ed Gallrein loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Ed Gallrein ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Ed Gallrein is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
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      "platform": "kalshi",
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      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Ed Gallrein in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 5% and 10%?",
      "description": "Ed Gallrein, 5-10%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
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      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Ed Gallrein in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary falls within 5% to 10%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Ed Gallrein minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ed Gallrein if Ed Gallrein wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Ed Gallrein loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Ed Gallrein minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ed Gallrein if Ed Gallrein wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Ed Gallrein loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Ed Gallrein minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Ed Gallrein wins, or the electoral votes received by Ed Gallrein minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Ed Gallrein does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Ed Gallrein runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Ed Gallrein will be summed.\n\nIf Ed Gallrein wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Ed Gallrein loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Ed Gallrein ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Ed Gallrein is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
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      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Ed Gallrein in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 0% and 5%?",
      "description": "Ed Gallrein, 0-5%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Ed Gallrein in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary falls within 0% to 5%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Ed Gallrein minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ed Gallrein if Ed Gallrein wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Ed Gallrein loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Ed Gallrein minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ed Gallrein if Ed Gallrein wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Ed Gallrein loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Ed Gallrein minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Ed Gallrein wins, or the electoral votes received by Ed Gallrein minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Ed Gallrein does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Ed Gallrein runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Ed Gallrein will be summed.\n\nIf Ed Gallrein wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Ed Gallrein loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Ed Gallrein ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Ed Gallrein is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
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        "republican primary"
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FH6177M0Y7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-KY4R26-TMAS-P2",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 0% and 5%?",
      "description": "Thomas Massie, 0-5%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Kentucky State Board of Elections certifies the official results for the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary election.",
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        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary falls within 0% to 5%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Thomas Massie minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Thomas Massie if Thomas Massie wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Thomas Massie loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Thomas Massie minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Thomas Massie if Thomas Massie wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Thomas Massie loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Thomas Massie minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Thomas Massie wins, or the electoral votes received by Thomas Massie minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Thomas Massie does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Thomas Massie runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Thomas Massie will be summed.\n\nIf Thomas Massie wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Thomas Massie loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Thomas Massie ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Thomas Massie is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
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      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 5% and 10%?",
      "description": "Thomas Massie, 5-10%",
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