{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-6NN6FC6HJ3",
  "slug": "kxprimarymov-senateiad26",
  "question": "Will the Iowa Democratic Senate primary margin of victory be less than 5 percentage points?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "iowa-politics",
    "democratic-primary",
    "2027-election",
    "margin-threshold",
    "close-race"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the margin of victory in the 2026 Iowa Democratic Senate primary, specifically for candidate Josh Turek. All eight markets are on Kalshi, structured as discrete margin tiers spanning 0-5% through 35%-plus. Together they form a full probability distribution over vote-share spread outcomes. Resolution relies on Kalshi staff determination using certified results from the Iowa Secretary of State.",
  "venues_covered": [
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-H572SFDKV1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NVJQB0LHC8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6NN6FC6HJ3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-SENATEIAD26-JTUR-P2",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Josh Turek in the 2026 Iowa Democratic Senate primary be between 0% and 5%?",
      "description": "Josh Turek, 0-5%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Josh Turek, 0-5%: Iowa Secretary of State official election results certified after the 2026 Democratic Senate primary determine the margin of victory, resolved by Kalshi staff by June 3, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-07T17:03:01Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-07T17:03:01Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Josh Turek in the 2026 Iowa Democratic Senate primary falls within 0% to 5%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Josh Turek minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Josh Turek if Josh Turek wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Josh Turek loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Josh Turek minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Josh Turek if Josh Turek wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Josh Turek loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Josh Turek minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Josh Turek wins, or the electoral votes received by Josh Turek minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Josh Turek does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Josh Turek runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Josh Turek will be summed.\n\nIf Josh Turek wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Josh Turek loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Josh Turek ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Josh Turek is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 34.52,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "democratic",
        "iowa",
        "josh turek",
        "margin",
        "primary",
        "senate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-37BKQ90N97",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6NN6FC6HJ3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-SENATEIAD26-JTUR-P7",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Josh Turek in the 2026 Iowa Democratic Senate primary be between 5% and 10%?",
      "description": "Josh Turek, 5-10%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Josh Turek, 5-10%: Iowa Secretary of State official election results certified after the 2026 Democratic Senate primary determine the margin of victory, resolved by Kalshi staff by June 3, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-07T17:03:01Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-07T17:03:01Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Josh Turek in the 2026 Iowa Democratic Senate primary falls within 5% to 10%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Josh Turek minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Josh Turek if Josh Turek wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Josh Turek loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Josh Turek minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Josh Turek if Josh Turek wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Josh Turek loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Josh Turek minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Josh Turek wins, or the electoral votes received by Josh Turek minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Josh Turek does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Josh Turek runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Josh Turek will be summed.\n\nIf Josh Turek wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Josh Turek loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Josh Turek ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Josh Turek is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
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      "volume_total_usd": 24.45,
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      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "democratic",
        "iowa",
        "josh turek",
        "margin",
        "primary",
        "senate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MM66R49D64",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6NN6FC6HJ3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-SENATEIAD26-JTUR-P12",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Josh Turek in the 2026 Iowa Democratic Senate primary be between 10% and 15%?",
      "description": "Josh Turek, 10-15%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Josh Turek, 10-15%: Iowa Secretary of State official election results certified after the 2026 Democratic Senate primary determine the margin of victory, resolved by Kalshi staff by June 3, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-07T17:03:01Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-07T17:03:01Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Josh Turek in the 2026 Iowa Democratic Senate primary falls within 10% to 15%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Josh Turek minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Josh Turek if Josh Turek wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Josh Turek loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Josh Turek minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Josh Turek if Josh Turek wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Josh Turek loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Josh Turek minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Josh Turek wins, or the electoral votes received by Josh Turek minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Josh Turek does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Josh Turek runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Josh Turek will be summed.\n\nIf Josh Turek wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Josh Turek loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Josh Turek ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Josh Turek is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 36.12,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "democratic",
        "iowa",
        "josh turek",
        "margin",
        "primary",
        "senate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
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          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-G1F2411400",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6NN6FC6HJ3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-SENATEIAD26-JTUR-P17",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Josh Turek in the 2026 Iowa Democratic Senate primary be between 15% and 20%?",
      "description": "Josh Turek, 15-20%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Josh Turek, 15-20%: Iowa Secretary of State official election results certified after the 2026 Democratic Senate primary determine the margin of victory, resolved by Kalshi staff by June 3, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-07T17:03:01Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-07T17:03:01Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Josh Turek in the 2026 Iowa Democratic Senate primary falls within 15% to 20%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Josh Turek minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Josh Turek if Josh Turek wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Josh Turek loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Josh Turek minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Josh Turek if Josh Turek wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Josh Turek loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Josh Turek minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Josh Turek wins, or the electoral votes received by Josh Turek minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Josh Turek does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Josh Turek runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Josh Turek will be summed.\n\nIf Josh Turek wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Josh Turek loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Josh Turek ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Josh Turek is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 31.99,
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      "tags": [
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        "democratic",
        "iowa",
        "josh turek",
        "margin",
        "primary",
        "senate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-314N6PDKT9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6NN6FC6HJ3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-SENATEIAD26-JTUR-P22",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Josh Turek in the 2026 Iowa Democratic Senate primary be between 20% and 25%?",
      "description": "Josh Turek, 20-25%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Josh Turek, 20-25%: Iowa Secretary of State official election results certified after the 2026 Democratic Senate primary determine the margin of victory, resolved by Kalshi staff by June 3, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-07T17:03:01Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-07T17:03:01Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Josh Turek in the 2026 Iowa Democratic Senate primary falls within 20% to 25%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Josh Turek minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Josh Turek if Josh Turek wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Josh Turek loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Josh Turek minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Josh Turek if Josh Turek wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Josh Turek loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Josh Turek minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Josh Turek wins, or the electoral votes received by Josh Turek minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Josh Turek does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Josh Turek runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Josh Turek will be summed.\n\nIf Josh Turek wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Josh Turek loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Josh Turek ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Josh Turek is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
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        "score": 80,
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
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      "volume_total_usd": 64.38,
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      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "democratic",
        "iowa",
        "josh turek",
        "margin",
        "primary",
        "senate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-H572SFDKV1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6NN6FC6HJ3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-SENATEIAD26-JTUR-P27",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Josh Turek in the 2026 Iowa Democratic Senate primary be between 25% and 30%?",
      "description": "Josh Turek, 25-30%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Josh Turek, 25-30%: Iowa Secretary of State official election results certified after the 2026 Democratic Senate primary determine the margin of victory, resolved by Kalshi staff by June 3, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-07T17:03:01Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-07T17:03:01Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Josh Turek in the 2026 Iowa Democratic Senate primary falls within 25% to 30%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Josh Turek minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Josh Turek if Josh Turek wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Josh Turek loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Josh Turek minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Josh Turek if Josh Turek wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Josh Turek loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Josh Turek minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Josh Turek wins, or the electoral votes received by Josh Turek minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Josh Turek does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Josh Turek runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Josh Turek will be summed.\n\nIf Josh Turek wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Josh Turek loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Josh Turek ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Josh Turek is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
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