{
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-SN4Y45FB54",
  "slug": "kxprimarymov-senatekyr26",
  "question": "What will be the margin of victory in the Kentucky Republican Senate primary?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "kentucky-politics",
    "republican-primary",
    "us-senate-2027",
    "margin-of-victory",
    "electoral-mechanics"
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  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Andy Barr's margin of victory in the 2026 Kentucky Republican U.S. Senate primary. Kalshi structures the event across discrete percentage-point tiers plus an above-threshold strike, pricing the distribution of the margin rather than the binary outcome. All eleven contracts resolve via Kalshi staff determination against the Kentucky Secretary of State's official certification of primary results.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-FGG5ZMC6D4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 1
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  "created_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SYWS8D25M0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SN4Y45FB54",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-SENATEKYR26-ABAR-P7",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Andy Barr in the 2026 Kentucky Republican U.S. Senate primary be between 0% and 15%?",
      "description": "Andy Barr, 0-15%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Kentucky Secretary of State's official certification of 2026 Republican U.S. Senate primary election results.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-09T00:24:21Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-09T00:24:21Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Andy Barr in the 2026 Kentucky Republican U.S. Senate primary falls within 0% to 15%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Andy Barr minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Andy Barr if Andy Barr wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Andy Barr loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Andy Barr minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Andy Barr if Andy Barr wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Andy Barr loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Andy Barr minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Andy Barr wins, or the electoral votes received by Andy Barr minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Andy Barr does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Andy Barr runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Andy Barr will be summed.\n\nIf Andy Barr wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Andy Barr loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Andy Barr ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Andy Barr is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
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      "volume_total_usd": 125.62,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "andy barr margin",
        "kentucky",
        "primary",
        "republican",
        "senate"
      ],
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      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Andy Barr in the 2026 Kentucky Republican U.S. Senate primary be between 15% and 20%?",
      "description": "Andy Barr, 15-20%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Kentucky Secretary of State's official certification of 2026 Republican U.S. Senate primary election results.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-09T00:24:21Z",
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      "status": "resolved",
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        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Andy Barr in the 2026 Kentucky Republican U.S. Senate primary falls within 15% to 20%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Andy Barr minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Andy Barr if Andy Barr wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Andy Barr loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Andy Barr minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Andy Barr if Andy Barr wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Andy Barr loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Andy Barr minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Andy Barr wins, or the electoral votes received by Andy Barr minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Andy Barr does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Andy Barr runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Andy Barr will be summed.\n\nIf Andy Barr wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Andy Barr loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Andy Barr ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Andy Barr is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
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      "volume_total_usd": 41.33,
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      "tags": [
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        "kentucky",
        "primary",
        "republican",
        "senate"
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SN4Y45FB54",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-SENATEKYR26-ABAR-P22",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Andy Barr in the 2026 Kentucky Republican U.S. Senate primary be between 20% and 25%?",
      "description": "Andy Barr, 20-25%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Kentucky Secretary of State's official certification of 2026 Republican U.S. Senate primary election results.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-09T00:24:21Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-09T00:24:21Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Andy Barr in the 2026 Kentucky Republican U.S. Senate primary falls within 20% to 25%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Andy Barr minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Andy Barr if Andy Barr wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Andy Barr loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Andy Barr minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Andy Barr if Andy Barr wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Andy Barr loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Andy Barr minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Andy Barr wins, or the electoral votes received by Andy Barr minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Andy Barr does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Andy Barr runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Andy Barr will be summed.\n\nIf Andy Barr wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Andy Barr loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Andy Barr ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Andy Barr is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "volume_total_usd": 40.4,
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      "tags": [
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        "andy barr margin",
        "kentucky",
        "primary",
        "republican",
        "senate"
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FGG5ZMC6D4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SN4Y45FB54",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-SENATEKYR26-ABAR-P27",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Andy Barr in the 2026 Kentucky Republican U.S. Senate primary be between 25% and 30%?",
      "description": "Andy Barr, 25-30%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Kentucky Secretary of State's official certification of 2026 Republican U.S. Senate primary election results.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-09T00:24:21Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-09T00:24:21Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Andy Barr in the 2026 Kentucky Republican U.S. Senate primary falls within 25% to 30%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Andy Barr minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Andy Barr if Andy Barr wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Andy Barr loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Andy Barr minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Andy Barr if Andy Barr wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Andy Barr loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Andy Barr minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Andy Barr wins, or the electoral votes received by Andy Barr minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Andy Barr does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Andy Barr runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Andy Barr will be summed.\n\nIf Andy Barr wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Andy Barr loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Andy Barr ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Andy Barr is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
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      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Andy Barr in the 2026 Kentucky Republican U.S. Senate primary be between 30% and 35%?",
      "description": "Andy Barr, 30-35%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Kentucky Secretary of State's official certification of 2026 Republican U.S. Senate primary election results.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-09T00:24:21Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-09T00:24:21Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Andy Barr in the 2026 Kentucky Republican U.S. Senate primary falls within 30% to 35%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Andy Barr minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Andy Barr if Andy Barr wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Andy Barr loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Andy Barr minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Andy Barr if Andy Barr wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Andy Barr loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Andy Barr minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Andy Barr wins, or the electoral votes received by Andy Barr minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Andy Barr does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Andy Barr runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Andy Barr will be summed.\n\nIf Andy Barr wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Andy Barr loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Andy Barr ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Andy Barr is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
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      "volume_total_usd": 328.65,
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      "tags": [
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        "andy barr margin",
        "kentucky",
        "primary",
        "republican",
        "senate"
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-SENATEKYR26-ABAR-P37",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Andy Barr in the 2026 Kentucky Republican U.S. Senate primary be between 35% and 40%?",
      "description": "Andy Barr, 35-40%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Kentucky Secretary of State's official certification of 2026 Republican U.S. Senate primary election results.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-09T00:24:21Z",
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      "status": "resolved",
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        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Andy Barr in the 2026 Kentucky Republican U.S. Senate primary falls within 35% to 40%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Andy Barr minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Andy Barr if Andy Barr wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Andy Barr loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Andy Barr minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Andy Barr if Andy Barr wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Andy Barr loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Andy Barr minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Andy Barr wins, or the electoral votes received by Andy Barr minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Andy Barr does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Andy Barr runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Andy Barr will be summed.\n\nIf Andy Barr wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Andy Barr loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Andy Barr ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Andy Barr is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SN4Y45FB54",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-SENATEKYR26-ABAR-P42",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Andy Barr in the 2026 Kentucky Republican U.S. Senate primary be between 40% and 45%?",
      "description": "Andy Barr, 40-45%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
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      "close_at": "2026-06-09T00:24:21Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-09T00:24:21Z",
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