{ "_notice": { "type": "free_key_offer", "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.", "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/", "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change." }, "event_id": "CM-EVT-84NV3BK2R3", "slug": "kxprimarymov-senatescr262r", "question": "Will the South Carolina Republican Senate primary margin of victory be greater than 10 percentage points?", "category": "politics", "event_type": "BINARY", "ladder_distribution": null, "tags": [ "politics", "south-carolina-politics", "republican-primary", "electoral-margin", "senate-race", "2027-election" ], "catalyst_types": [], "catalyst_dates": [], "editorial_notes": "These markets track Lindsey Graham's margin of victory in the 2027 South Carolina Republican Senate primary first round. The canonical question prices a binary threshold above 10 percentage points; Kalshi prices the margin across discrete tiers from 0-15% through 40%-plus. That structural difference is the cross-platform insight: one asks direction, the other prices the magnitude distribution. Resolution follows Kalshi staff determination based on certified primary results.", "venues_covered": [ "kalshi" ], "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-CPNK1NSM14", "current_primary_mark": { "last_price": 1, "implied_probability": 1 }, "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00", "markets": [ { "market_id": "CM-MKT-6XLY7JB3J3", "event_id": "CM-EVT-84NV3BK2R3", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-SENATESCR262R-LGRA-P7", "question": "Will the margin of victory for Lindsey Graham in the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate primary be between 0% and 15%?", "description": "Lindsey Graham, 0-15%", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Lindsey Graham, 0-15%: The named candidate's margin of victory in the first round of the referenced Senate primary will be determined by the official election authority responsible for certifying results in the relevant geography, with resolution by Kalshi staff determination by June 9, 2027.", "close_at": "2026-06-16T14:46:17Z", "resolve_at": "2026-06-16T14:46:17Z", "status": "resolved", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Lindsey Graham in the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate primary falls within 0% to 15%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Lindsey Graham minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Lindsey Graham if Lindsey Graham wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Lindsey Graham loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Lindsey Graham minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Lindsey Graham if Lindsey Graham wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Lindsey Graham loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Lindsey Graham minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Lindsey Graham wins, or the electoral votes received by Lindsey Graham minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Lindsey Graham does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Lindsey Graham runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Lindsey Graham will be summed.\n\nIf Lindsey Graham wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Lindsey Graham loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Lindsey Graham ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Lindsey Graham is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "sources": [ { "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 80, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 6 }, "last_price": 0, "implied_probability": 0, "volume_24h_usd": 0.08, "volume_total_usd": 106.55, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "lindsey graham", "margin", "sc-gop-primary", "senate" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-J9TVSB4SB8", "event_id": "CM-EVT-84NV3BK2R3", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-SENATESCR262R-LGRA-P17", "question": "Will the margin of victory for Lindsey Graham in the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate primary be between 15% and 20%?", "description": "Lindsey Graham, 15-20%", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Lindsey Graham, 15-20%: The named candidate's margin of victory in the first round of the referenced Senate primary will be determined by the official election authority responsible for certifying results in the relevant geography, with resolution by Kalshi staff determination by June 9, 2027.", "close_at": "2026-06-16T14:46:17Z", "resolve_at": "2026-06-16T14:46:17Z", "status": "resolved", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Lindsey Graham in the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate primary falls within 15% to 20%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Lindsey Graham minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Lindsey Graham if Lindsey Graham wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Lindsey Graham loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Lindsey Graham minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Lindsey Graham if Lindsey Graham wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Lindsey Graham loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Lindsey Graham minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Lindsey Graham wins, or the electoral votes received by Lindsey Graham minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Lindsey Graham does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Lindsey Graham runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Lindsey Graham will be summed.\n\nIf Lindsey Graham wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Lindsey Graham loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Lindsey Graham ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Lindsey Graham is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "sources": [ { "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 80, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 6 }, "last_price": 0, "implied_probability": 0, "volume_24h_usd": 0.25, "volume_total_usd": 61.02, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "lindsey graham", "margin", "sc-gop-primary", "senate" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-250JDP8JF3", "event_id": "CM-EVT-84NV3BK2R3", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-SENATESCR262R-LGRA-P22", "question": "Will the margin of victory for Lindsey Graham in the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate primary be between 20% and 25%?", "description": "Lindsey Graham, 20-25%", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Lindsey Graham, 20-25%: The named candidate's margin of victory in the first round of the referenced Senate primary will be determined by the official election authority responsible for certifying results in the relevant geography, with resolution by Kalshi staff determination by June 9, 2027.", "close_at": "2026-06-16T14:46:17Z", "resolve_at": "2026-06-16T14:46:17Z", "status": "resolved", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Lindsey Graham in the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate primary falls within 20% to 25%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Lindsey Graham minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Lindsey Graham if Lindsey Graham wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Lindsey Graham loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Lindsey Graham minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Lindsey Graham if Lindsey Graham wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Lindsey Graham loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Lindsey Graham minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Lindsey Graham wins, or the electoral votes received by Lindsey Graham minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Lindsey Graham does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Lindsey Graham runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Lindsey Graham will be summed.\n\nIf Lindsey Graham wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Lindsey Graham loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Lindsey Graham ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Lindsey Graham is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "sources": [ { "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 80, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 6 }, "last_price": 0, "implied_probability": 0, "volume_24h_usd": 3, "volume_total_usd": 87.17, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "lindsey graham", "margin", "sc-gop-primary", "senate" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-CPNK1NSM14", "event_id": "CM-EVT-84NV3BK2R3", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-SENATESCR262R-LGRA-P27", "question": "Will the margin of victory for Lindsey Graham in the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate primary be between 25% and 30%?", "description": "Lindsey Graham, 25-30%", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Lindsey Graham, 25-30%: The named candidate's margin of victory in the first round of the referenced Senate primary will be determined by the official election authority responsible for certifying results in the relevant geography, with resolution by Kalshi staff determination by June 9, 2027.", "close_at": "2026-06-16T14:46:17Z", "resolve_at": "2026-06-16T14:46:17Z", "status": "resolved", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Lindsey Graham in the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate primary falls within 25% to 30%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Lindsey Graham minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Lindsey Graham if Lindsey Graham wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Lindsey Graham loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Lindsey Graham minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Lindsey Graham if Lindsey Graham wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Lindsey Graham loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Lindsey Graham minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Lindsey Graham wins, or the electoral votes received by Lindsey Graham minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Lindsey Graham does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Lindsey Graham runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Lindsey Graham will be summed.\n\nIf Lindsey Graham wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Lindsey Graham loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Lindsey Graham ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Lindsey Graham is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "sources": [ { "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 80, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 6 }, "last_price": 1, "implied_probability": 1, "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 11963.73, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "lindsey graham", "margin", "sc-gop-primary", "senate" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-WX455P2KM8", "event_id": "CM-EVT-84NV3BK2R3", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-SENATESCR262R-LGRA-P32", "question": "Will the margin of victory for Lindsey Graham in the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate primary be between 30% and 35%?", "description": "Lindsey Graham, 30-35%", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Lindsey Graham, 30-35%: The named candidate's margin of victory in the first round of the referenced Senate primary will be determined by the official election authority responsible for certifying results in the relevant geography, with resolution by Kalshi staff determination by June 9, 2027.", "close_at": "2026-06-16T14:46:17Z", "resolve_at": "2026-06-16T14:46:17Z", "status": "resolved", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Lindsey Graham in the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate primary falls within 30% to 35%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Lindsey Graham minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Lindsey Graham if Lindsey Graham wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Lindsey Graham loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Lindsey Graham minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Lindsey Graham if Lindsey Graham wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Lindsey Graham loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Lindsey Graham minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Lindsey Graham wins, or the electoral votes received by Lindsey Graham minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Lindsey Graham does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Lindsey Graham runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Lindsey Graham will be summed.\n\nIf Lindsey Graham wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Lindsey Graham loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Lindsey Graham ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Lindsey Graham is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "sources": [ { "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 80, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 6 }, "last_price": 0, "implied_probability": 0, "volume_24h_usd": 0.01, "volume_total_usd": 411.3, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "lindsey graham", "margin", "sc-gop-primary", "senate" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-SQ73SX3988", "event_id": "CM-EVT-84NV3BK2R3", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-SENATESCR262R-LGRA-P37", "question": "Will the margin of victory for Lindsey Graham in the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate primary be between 35% and 40%?", "description": "Lindsey Graham, 35-40%", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Lindsey Graham, 35-40%: The named candidate's margin of victory in the first round of the referenced Senate primary will be determined by the official election authority responsible for certifying results in the relevant geography, with resolution by Kalshi staff determination by June 9, 2027.", "close_at": "2026-06-16T14:46:17Z", "resolve_at": "2026-06-16T14:46:17Z", "status": "resolved", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Lindsey Graham in the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate primary falls within 35% to 40%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Lindsey Graham minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Lindsey Graham if Lindsey Graham wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Lindsey Graham loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Lindsey Graham minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Lindsey Graham if Lindsey Graham wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Lindsey Graham loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Lindsey Graham minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Lindsey Graham wins, or the electoral votes received by Lindsey Graham minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Lindsey Graham does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Lindsey Graham runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Lindsey Graham will be summed.\n\nIf Lindsey Graham wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Lindsey Graham loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Lindsey Graham ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Lindsey Graham is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "sources": [ { "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 80, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 6 }, "last_price": 0, "implied_probability": 0, "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 22.22, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "lindsey graham", "margin", "sc-gop-primary", "senate" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-9FKB34J6G2", "event_id": "CM-EVT-84NV3BK2R3", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-SENATESCR262R-LGRA-P70", "question": "Will the margin of victory for Lindsey Graham in the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate primary be above 40%?", "description": "Lindsey Graham, ≥40%", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Lindsey Graham, ≥40%: The named candidate's margin of victory in the first round of the referenced Senate primary will be determined by the official election authority responsible for certifying results in the relevant geography, with resolution by Kalshi staff determination by June 9, 2027.", "close_at": "2026-06-16T14:46:17Z", "resolve_at": "2026-06-16T14:46:17Z", "status": "resolved", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Lindsey Graham in the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate primary falls within 40% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Lindsey Graham minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Lindsey Graham if Lindsey Graham wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Lindsey Graham loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Lindsey Graham minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Lindsey Graham if Lindsey Graham wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Lindsey Graham loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Lindsey Graham minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Lindsey Graham wins, or the electoral votes received by Lindsey Graham minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Lindsey Graham does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Lindsey Graham runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Lindsey Graham will be summed.\n\nIf Lindsey Graham wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Lindsey Graham loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Lindsey Graham ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Lindsey Graham is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "sources": [ { "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 80, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 6 }, "last_price": 0, "implied_probability": 0, "volume_24h_usd": 0.33, "volume_total_usd": 89.71, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "lindsey graham", "margin", "sc-gop-primary", "senate" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] } ], "resolution_log": [ { "market_id": "CM-MKT-6XLY7JB3J3", "platform": "kalshi", "event_type": "resolved", "outcome": "NO", "resolved_at": "2026-06-16T15:16:23.382224Z", "deadline_at": null, "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement", "final_price": 0, "recorded_at": "2026-07-23", "source": "platform_api", "source_ref": null }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-J9TVSB4SB8", "platform": "kalshi", "event_type": "resolved", "outcome": "NO", "resolved_at": "2026-06-16T15:16:23.382224Z", "deadline_at": null, "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement", "final_price": 0, "recorded_at": "2026-07-23", "source": "platform_api", "source_ref": null }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-250JDP8JF3", "platform": "kalshi", "event_type": "resolved", "outcome": "NO", "resolved_at": "2026-06-16T15:16:23.382224Z", "deadline_at": null, "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement", "final_price": 0, "recorded_at": "2026-07-23", "source": "platform_api", "source_ref": null }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-CPNK1NSM14", "platform": "kalshi", "event_type": "resolved", "outcome": "YES", "resolved_at": "2026-06-16T15:16:23.382224Z", "deadline_at": null, "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement", "final_price": 1, "recorded_at": "2026-07-23", "source": "platform_api", "source_ref": null }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-WX455P2KM8", "platform": "kalshi", "event_type": "resolved", "outcome": "NO", "resolved_at": "2026-06-16T15:16:23.382224Z", "deadline_at": null, "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement", "final_price": 0, "recorded_at": "2026-07-23", "source": "platform_api", "source_ref": null }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-SQ73SX3988", "platform": "kalshi", "event_type": "resolved", "outcome": "NO", "resolved_at": "2026-06-16T15:16:23.382224Z", "deadline_at": null, "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement", "final_price": 0, "recorded_at": "2026-07-23", "source": "platform_api", "source_ref": null }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-9FKB34J6G2", "platform": "kalshi", "event_type": "resolved", "outcome": "NO", "resolved_at": "2026-06-16T15:16:23.382224Z", "deadline_at": null, "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement", "final_price": 0, "recorded_at": "2026-07-23", "source": "platform_api", "source_ref": null } ], "_provenance": { "source": "clearmarket.fyi", "ref": "CM-EVT-84NV3BK2R3", "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi" } }