{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-VQ1J6X98Z6",
  "slug": "kxprimarymov-tx33d26",
  "question": "Will the TX-33 Democratic primary runoff margin of victory be greater than 10 percentage points?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "texas-politics",
    "democratic-primary",
    "election-margins",
    "2027-election",
    "runoff-races"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the margin of victory in the TX-33 Democratic primary runoff, closing May 26, 2027. Kalshi structures the event as discrete margin tiers, separately covering both Julie Johnson and Colin Allred as potential winners. The cross-platform insight is structural: Johnson markets cover three tiers up to above 10%, while Allred markets extend to six tiers reaching above 25%. Resolution relies on Kalshi staff determination using certified results from the official Texas election authority.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-199NNJ9SC9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.96,
    "implied_probability": 0.96
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M81R54R8X9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VQ1J6X98Z6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-TX33D26-JJOH-P55",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Julie Johnson in the TX-33 Democratic primary runoff be above 10%?",
      "description": "Julie Johnson, ≥10%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Julie Johnson, ≥10%: Official election authority certifying results in the referenced geography determines the named candidate's margin of victory in the specified primary runoff, resolved by Kalshi staff by May 26, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-05-26T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-05-26T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Julie Johnson in the TX-33 Democratic primary runoff falls within 10% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Julie Johnson minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Julie Johnson if Julie Johnson wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Julie Johnson loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Julie Johnson minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Julie Johnson if Julie Johnson wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Julie Johnson loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Julie Johnson minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Julie Johnson wins, or the electoral votes received by Julie Johnson minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Julie Johnson does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Julie Johnson runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Julie Johnson will be summed.\n\nIf Julie Johnson wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Julie Johnson loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Julie Johnson ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Julie Johnson is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
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            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
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          }
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        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.02,
      "implied_probability": 0.02,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 170.57,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "democratic primary",
        "julie johnson",
        "julie johnson tx",
        "margin",
        "runoff",
        "tx-33"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-77BV5RSPW0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VQ1J6X98Z6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-TX33D26-JJOH-P7",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Julie Johnson in the TX-33 Democratic primary runoff be between 5% and 10%?",
      "description": "Julie Johnson, 5-10%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Julie Johnson, 5-10%: Official election authority certifying results in the referenced geography determines the named candidate's margin of victory in the specified primary runoff, resolved by Kalshi staff by May 26, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-05-26T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-05-26T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Julie Johnson in the TX-33 Democratic primary runoff falls within 5% to 10%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Julie Johnson minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Julie Johnson if Julie Johnson wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Julie Johnson loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Julie Johnson minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Julie Johnson if Julie Johnson wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Julie Johnson loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Julie Johnson minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Julie Johnson wins, or the electoral votes received by Julie Johnson minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Julie Johnson does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Julie Johnson runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Julie Johnson will be summed.\n\nIf Julie Johnson wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Julie Johnson loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Julie Johnson ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Julie Johnson is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 7.61,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
        "democratic primary",
        "julie johnson",
        "julie johnson tx",
        "margin",
        "runoff",
        "tx-33"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MD3K5JP5H3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VQ1J6X98Z6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-TX33D26-JJOH-P2",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Julie Johnson in the TX-33 Democratic primary runoff be between 0% and 5%?",
      "description": "Julie Johnson, 0-5%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Julie Johnson, 0-5%: Official election authority certifying results in the referenced geography determines the named candidate's margin of victory in the specified primary runoff, resolved by Kalshi staff by May 26, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-05-26T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-05-26T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Julie Johnson in the TX-33 Democratic primary runoff falls within 0% to 5%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Julie Johnson minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Julie Johnson if Julie Johnson wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Julie Johnson loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Julie Johnson minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Julie Johnson if Julie Johnson wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Julie Johnson loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Julie Johnson minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Julie Johnson wins, or the electoral votes received by Julie Johnson minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Julie Johnson does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Julie Johnson runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Julie Johnson will be summed.\n\nIf Julie Johnson wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Julie Johnson loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Julie Johnson ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Julie Johnson is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
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        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 33.29,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "democratic primary",
        "julie johnson",
        "julie johnson tx",
        "margin",
        "runoff",
        "tx-33"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DDSTMPZX67",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VQ1J6X98Z6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-TX33D26-CALL-P2",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Colin Allred in the TX-33 Democratic primary runoff be between 0% and 5%?",
      "description": "Colin Allred, 0-5%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Colin Allred, 0-5%: Official election authority certifying results in the referenced geography determines the named candidate's margin of victory in the specified primary runoff, resolved by Kalshi staff by May 26, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-05-26T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-05-26T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Colin Allred in the TX-33 Democratic primary runoff falls within 0% to 5%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Colin Allred minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Colin Allred if Colin Allred wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Colin Allred loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Colin Allred minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Colin Allred if Colin Allred wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Colin Allred loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Colin Allred minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Colin Allred wins, or the electoral votes received by Colin Allred minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Colin Allred does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Colin Allred runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Colin Allred will be summed.\n\nIf Colin Allred wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Colin Allred loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Colin Allred ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Colin Allred is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 97.03,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
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      "tags": [
        "colin allred",
        "colin allred tx",
        "democratic primary",
        "margin",
        "runoff",
        "tx-33"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-199NNJ9SC9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VQ1J6X98Z6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-TX33D26-CALL-P7",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Colin Allred in the TX-33 Democratic primary runoff be between 5% and 10%?",
      "description": "Colin Allred, 5-10%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Colin Allred, 5-10%: Official election authority certifying results in the referenced geography determines the named candidate's margin of victory in the specified primary runoff, resolved by Kalshi staff by May 26, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-05-26T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-05-26T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Colin Allred in the TX-33 Democratic primary runoff falls within 5% to 10%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Colin Allred minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Colin Allred if Colin Allred wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Colin Allred loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Colin Allred minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Colin Allred if Colin Allred wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Colin Allred loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Colin Allred minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Colin Allred wins, or the electoral votes received by Colin Allred minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Colin Allred does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Colin Allred runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Colin Allred will be summed.\n\nIf Colin Allred wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Colin Allred loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Colin Allred ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Colin Allred is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
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        "score": 80,
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.96,
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      "volume_total_usd": 15367.79,
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      "tags": [
        "colin allred",
        "colin allred tx",
        "democratic primary",
        "margin",
        "runoff",
        "tx-33"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-64TKNPKZM9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VQ1J6X98Z6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-TX33D26-CALL-P12",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Colin Allred in the TX-33 Democratic primary runoff be between 10% and 15%?",
      "description": "Colin Allred, 10-15%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Colin Allred, 10-15%: Official election authority certifying results in the referenced geography determines the named candidate's margin of victory in the specified primary runoff, resolved by Kalshi staff by May 26, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-05-26T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-05-26T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Colin Allred in the TX-33 Democratic primary runoff falls within 10% to 15%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Colin Allred minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Colin Allred if Colin Allred wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Colin Allred loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Colin Allred minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Colin Allred if Colin Allred wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Colin Allred loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Colin Allred minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Colin Allred wins, or the electoral votes received by Colin Allred minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Colin Allred does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Colin Allred runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Colin Allred will be summed.\n\nIf Colin Allred wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Colin Allred loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Colin Allred ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Colin Allred is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.01,
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