{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-8YWSD3D1F9",
  "slug": "kxprimaryturnout-mayorla26",
  "question": "Will the Los Angeles mayoral election first round occur in June 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      850000,
      875000
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 550000,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 600000,
        "prob": 97
      },
      {
        "threshold": 650000,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 700000,
        "prob": 99
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      {
        "threshold": 750000,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 800000,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 850000,
        "prob": 96
      },
      {
        "threshold": 875000,
        "prob": 3
      },
      {
        "threshold": 900000,
        "prob": 1
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "los-angeles-politics",
    "municipal-election",
    "voter-turnout",
    "election-mechanics",
    "2027-election"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track aggregate first-round voter turnout in the June 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election. Kalshi structures the event as nine discrete strike thresholds, ranging from 550k to 900k total votes cast. Taken together, the ladder implies a probability distribution over turnout levels. The Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk's certified results are the authoritative source; Kalshi staff determination governs settlement.",
  "venues_covered": [
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-TJH74G2FR9",
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    "implied_probability": 0.03
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8YWSD3D1F9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-MAYORLA26-550000",
      "question": "Will the total vote count for all participants in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 550000?",
      "description": "Above 550k",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 550k: The Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk's official certified results for the first-round mayoral election will determine total voter turnout by the June 2, 2027 deadline.",
      "close_at": "2027-06-02T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-06-02T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total vote count for all participants in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election is above 550000, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. \n\nThe contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.",
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      "question": "Will the total vote count for all participants in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 600000?",
      "description": "Above 600k",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Above 600k: The Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk's official certified results for the first-round mayoral election will determine total voter turnout by the June 2, 2027 deadline.",
      "close_at": "2027-06-02T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-06-02T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If the total vote count for all participants in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election is above 600000, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. \n\nThe contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.",
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-MAYORLA26-650000",
      "question": "Will the total vote count for all participants in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 650000?",
      "description": "Above 650k",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 650k: The Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk's official certified results for the first-round mayoral election will determine total voter turnout by the June 2, 2027 deadline.",
      "close_at": "2027-06-02T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-06-02T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total vote count for all participants in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election is above 650000, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. \n\nThe contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.",
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        "mayoral election",
        "voter turnout"
      ],
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-74XM21GW68",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8YWSD3D1F9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-MAYORLA26-700000",
      "question": "Will the total vote count for all participants in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 700000?",
      "description": "Above 700k",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 700k: The Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk's official certified results for the first-round mayoral election will determine total voter turnout by the June 2, 2027 deadline.",
      "close_at": "2027-06-02T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-06-02T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total vote count for all participants in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election is above 700000, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. \n\nThe contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.",
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        "voter turnout"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KBJVNYZ1K6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8YWSD3D1F9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-MAYORLA26-750000",
      "question": "Will the total vote count for all participants in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 750000?",
      "description": "Above 750k",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
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      "close_at": "2027-06-02T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-06-02T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total vote count for all participants in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election is above 750000, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. \n\nThe contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.",
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-MAYORLA26-800000",
      "question": "Will the total vote count for all participants in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 800000?",
      "description": "Above 800k",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "resolve_at": "2027-06-02T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total vote count for all participants in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election is above 800000, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. \n\nThe contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.",
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      "platform": "kalshi",
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      "question": "Will the total vote count for all participants in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 850000?",
      "description": "Above 850k",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 850k: The Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk's official certified results for the first-round mayoral election will determine total voter turnout by the June 2, 2027 deadline.",
      "close_at": "2027-06-02T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-06-02T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total vote count for all participants in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election is above 850000, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. \n\nThe contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.",
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        "voter turnout"
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      "close_at": "2027-06-02T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-06-02T14:00:00Z",
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      "resolution": {
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      "volume_total_usd": 130.49,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-8YWSD3D1F9",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}