{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-308TT6XJH6",
  "slug": "kxprimaryturnout-senatemid26",
  "question": "Michigan state election total vote count, 2026 primary",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      1500000,
      1600000
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 900000,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1000000,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1100000,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1200000,
        "prob": 93
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1300000,
        "prob": 88
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1400000,
        "prob": 70
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1500000,
        "prob": 50
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1600000,
        "prob": 21
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "michigan-politics",
    "2026-election",
    "democratic-primary",
    "voter-turnout",
    "electoral-participation"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track total ballot volume in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary. Eight Kalshi binary contracts span strike thresholds from 900k to 1.6M votes, forming an implied cumulative distribution of turnout. Each contract resolves independently via Kalshi staff determination against certified results from Michigan's state election commission. Resolution is expected by August 4, 2027.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-Z0TDL6WJY3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.21,
    "implied_probability": 0.21
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VPMVZKC2S6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-308TT6XJH6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-SENATEMID26-900000",
      "question": "Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary be above 900000?",
      "description": "Above 900k",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 900k: Michigan's state election commission certifies total primary ballots cast by August 4, 2027, determining if the threshold outcome occurred.",
      "close_at": "2027-08-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-08-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXPRIMARYTURNOUT, notice id VOTECOUNT-bulk-2026-04-22):\n**Important information**: Settlement occurs only after results are officially certified.\n[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]\n\nIf the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary is above 900000, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. \n\nThe contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.",
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
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        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 121.76,
      "volume_total_usd": 872.05,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 900000,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "democratic primary",
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        "michigan senate democratic",
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        "turnout"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0S3S8MJPH0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-308TT6XJH6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-SENATEMID26-1000000",
      "question": "Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary be above 1000000?",
      "description": "Above 1.0M",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1.0M: Michigan's state election commission certifies total primary ballots cast by August 4, 2027, determining if the threshold outcome occurred.",
      "close_at": "2027-08-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-08-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXPRIMARYTURNOUT, notice id VOTECOUNT-bulk-2026-04-22):\n**Important information**: Settlement occurs only after results are officially certified.\n[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]\n\nIf the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary is above 1000000, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. \n\nThe contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.99,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 220.76,
      "volume_total_usd": 776.18,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1000000,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "democratic primary",
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      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7B3L3KCNK6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-308TT6XJH6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-SENATEMID26-1100000",
      "question": "Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary be above 1100000?",
      "description": "Above 1.1M",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1.1M: Michigan's state election commission certifies total primary ballots cast by August 4, 2027, determining if the threshold outcome occurred.",
      "close_at": "2027-08-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-08-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXPRIMARYTURNOUT, notice id VOTECOUNT-bulk-2026-04-22):\n**Important information**: Settlement occurs only after results are officially certified.\n[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]\n\nIf the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary is above 1100000, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. \n\nThe contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 867.29,
      "volume_total_usd": 1057.64,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1100000,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "democratic primary",
        "michigan",
        "michigan senate democratic",
        "senate",
        "turnout"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MRQFFRRYJ1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-308TT6XJH6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-SENATEMID26-1200000",
      "question": "Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary be above 1200000?",
      "description": "Above 1.2M",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1.2M: Michigan's state election commission certifies total primary ballots cast by August 4, 2027, determining if the threshold outcome occurred.",
      "close_at": "2027-08-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-08-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXPRIMARYTURNOUT, notice id VOTECOUNT-bulk-2026-04-22):\n**Important information**: Settlement occurs only after results are officially certified.\n[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]\n\nIf the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary is above 1200000, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. \n\nThe contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.93,
      "implied_probability": 0.93,
      "volume_24h_usd": 167.32,
      "volume_total_usd": 1341.61,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1200000,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "democratic primary",
        "michigan",
        "michigan senate democratic",
        "senate",
        "turnout"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WKB6X0RZ01",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-308TT6XJH6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-SENATEMID26-1300000",
      "question": "Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary be above 1300000?",
      "description": "Above 1.3M",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1.3M: Michigan's state election commission certifies total primary ballots cast by August 4, 2027, determining if the threshold outcome occurred.",
      "close_at": "2027-08-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-08-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXPRIMARYTURNOUT, notice id VOTECOUNT-bulk-2026-04-22):\n**Important information**: Settlement occurs only after results are officially certified.\n[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]\n\nIf the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary is above 1300000, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. \n\nThe contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.",
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        "sources": [
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        "score": 80,
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.88,
      "implied_probability": 0.88,
      "volume_24h_usd": 837.74,
      "volume_total_usd": 3656.54,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1300000,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "michigan",
        "michigan senate democratic",
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        "turnout"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-N4HQSJKH70",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-308TT6XJH6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-SENATEMID26-1400000",
      "question": "Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary be above 1400000?",
      "description": "Above 1.4M",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1.4M: Michigan's state election commission certifies total primary ballots cast by August 4, 2027, determining if the threshold outcome occurred.",
      "close_at": "2027-08-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-08-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXPRIMARYTURNOUT, notice id VOTECOUNT-bulk-2026-04-22):\n**Important information**: Settlement occurs only after results are officially certified.\n[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]\n\nIf the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary is above 1400000, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. \n\nThe contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.7,
      "implied_probability": 0.7,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1745.23,
      "volume_total_usd": 6379.13,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1400000,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "democratic primary",
        "michigan",
        "michigan senate democratic",
        "senate",
        "turnout"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1M68FY5M77",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-308TT6XJH6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-SENATEMID26-1500000",
      "question": "Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary be above 1500000?",
      "description": "Above 1.5M",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1.5M: Michigan's state election commission certifies total primary ballots cast by August 4, 2027, determining if the threshold outcome occurred.",
      "close_at": "2027-08-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-08-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXPRIMARYTURNOUT, notice id VOTECOUNT-bulk-2026-04-22):\n**Important information**: Settlement occurs only after results are officially certified.\n[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]\n\nIf the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary is above 1500000, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. \n\nThe contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.5,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 1767.62,
      "volume_total_usd": 3863.91,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1500000,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "democratic primary",
        "michigan",
        "michigan senate democratic",
        "senate",
        "turnout"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Z0TDL6WJY3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-308TT6XJH6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-SENATEMID26-1600000",
      "question": "Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary be above 1600000?",
      "description": "Above 1.6M",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1.6M: Michigan's state election commission certifies total primary ballots cast by August 4, 2027, determining if the threshold outcome occurred.",
      "close_at": "2027-08-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-08-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXPRIMARYTURNOUT, notice id VOTECOUNT-bulk-2026-04-22):\n**Important information**: Settlement occurs only after results are officially certified.\n[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]\n\nIf the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary is above 1600000, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. \n\nThe contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.21,
      "implied_probability": 0.21,
      "volume_24h_usd": 226.41,
      "volume_total_usd": 768.61,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1600000,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "democratic primary",
        "michigan",
        "michigan senate democratic",
        "senate",
        "turnout"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-308TT6XJH6",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}