{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-HVQYP12QR1",
  "slug": "kxprimaryturnout-senatetxr26",
  "question": "Total vote count, 2026 Texas primary senate race",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      1350000,
      1400000
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 1000000,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1100000,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1200000,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1300000,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1350000,
        "prob": 98
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1400000,
        "prob": 4
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1500000,
        "prob": 2
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1600000,
        "prob": 2
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1700000,
        "prob": 2
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1800000,
        "prob": 1
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1900000,
        "prob": 2
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2000000,
        "prob": 1
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2100000,
        "prob": 1
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2200000,
        "prob": 1
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "texas-politics",
    "2026-election",
    "republican-primary",
    "voter-turnout",
    "runoff-dynamics"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track total votes cast in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary runoff. Kalshi prices absolute vote-count thresholds ranging from 1.0M to 2.2M; the canonical question prices the directional outcome versus the initial primary. Kalshi structures this as discrete strike levels, while the canonical event asks a binary turnout-comparison question. The Texas Secretary of State is the authoritative source; Kalshi staff determination governs resolution.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-YYVWYS3XP6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.04,
    "implied_probability": 0.04
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-T8SHX4TYW5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HVQYP12QR1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-SENATETXR26-1000000",
      "question": "Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be above 1000000?",
      "description": "Above 1.0M",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1.0M: The Texas Secretary of State or applicable election authority will report total votes cast in the referenced primary runoff, with Kalshi staff determining whether the count meets the specified threshold by May 26, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-05-26T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-05-26T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary runoff is above 1000000, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. \n\nThe contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.",
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      "question": "Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be above 1100000?",
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      "close_at": "2027-05-26T14:00:00Z",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BHGPVKDBK2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HVQYP12QR1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-SENATETXR26-1200000",
      "question": "Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be above 1200000?",
      "description": "Above 1.2M",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1.2M: The Texas Secretary of State or applicable election authority will report total votes cast in the referenced primary runoff, with Kalshi staff determining whether the count meets the specified threshold by May 26, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-05-26T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-05-26T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary runoff is above 1200000, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. \n\nThe contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.",
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      "rcg": {
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      "last_price": 0.99,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1200000,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
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          "bucket": null,
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        }
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TT323YG405",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HVQYP12QR1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-SENATETXR26-1300000",
      "question": "Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be above 1300000?",
      "description": "Above 1.3M",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1.3M: The Texas Secretary of State or applicable election authority will report total votes cast in the referenced primary runoff, with Kalshi staff determining whether the count meets the specified threshold by May 26, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-05-26T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-05-26T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary runoff is above 1300000, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. \n\nThe contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place",
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      "last_price": 0.99,
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      "volume_total_usd": 30740.23,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-X8T1TH75H9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HVQYP12QR1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-SENATETXR26-1350000",
      "question": "Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be above 1350000?",
      "description": "Above 1.35M",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1.35M: The Texas Secretary of State or applicable election authority will report total votes cast in the referenced primary runoff, with Kalshi staff determining whether the count meets the specified threshold by May 26, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-05-26T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-05-26T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary runoff is above 1350000, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. \n\nThe contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YYVWYS3XP6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HVQYP12QR1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-SENATETXR26-1400000",
      "question": "Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be above 1400000?",
      "description": "Above 1.4M",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1.4M: The Texas Secretary of State or applicable election authority will report total votes cast in the referenced primary runoff, with Kalshi staff determining whether the count meets the specified threshold by May 26, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-05-26T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-05-26T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary runoff is above 1400000, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. \n\nThe contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SQB745DFT2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HVQYP12QR1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-SENATETXR26-1500000",
      "question": "Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be above 1500000?",
      "description": "Above 1.5M",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1.5M: The Texas Secretary of State or applicable election authority will report total votes cast in the referenced primary runoff, with Kalshi staff determining whether the count meets the specified threshold by May 26, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-05-26T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-05-26T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary runoff is above 1500000, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. \n\nThe contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
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        "sources": [
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            "name": "the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "officially certified results from the relevant election authority",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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