{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-85749XJVP4",
  "slug": "kxquebecassembly-26oct05",
  "question": "Who will win the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "quebec-politics",
    "canadian-elections",
    "2027-resolution",
    "electoral-outcome",
    "national-assembly"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the winning party in the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election. Kalshi lists five separate binary contracts, one per party: CAQ, PLQ, QS, PQ, and PCQ. Each contract resolves independently via Kalshi staff determination based on official provincial results. Resolution is set for October 12, 2026, with contracts closing October 5, 2027.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-3P6GL264Y3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.73,
    "implied_probability": 0.73
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JC5Z48C252",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-85749XJVP4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXQUEBECASSEMBLY-26OCT05-CAQ",
      "question": "Will CAQ win the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election?",
      "description": "CAQ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "CAQ: The named political party's election victory resolves by Kalshi staff determination based on official results from Quebec's electoral authority, due October 12, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-05T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-12T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the CAQ wins the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins. If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No. If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements. Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified. For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements). If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met. For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.  \n\n\nThe market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction. In cases of competing claims (two presidents, disputed succession), the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails. The market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. Repeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline.  If results are annulled by a court/authority AFTER announcement but BEFORE the winner takes office, the Contract remains open until re-run election or expiration.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "the official electoral commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.15,
      "implied_probability": 0.15,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1061.25,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "caq",
        "election",
        "quebec"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FRPZQPFWQ2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-85749XJVP4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXQUEBECASSEMBLY-26OCT05-PLQ",
      "question": "Will PLQ win the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election?",
      "description": "PLQ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "PLQ: The named political party's election victory resolves by Kalshi staff determination based on official results from Quebec's electoral authority, due October 12, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-05T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-12T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the PLQ wins the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins. If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No. If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements. Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified. For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements). If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met. For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.  \n\n\nThe market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction. In cases of competing claims (two presidents, disputed succession), the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails. The market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. Repeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline.  If results are annulled by a court/authority AFTER announcement but BEFORE the winner takes office, the Contract remains open until re-run election or expiration.",
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        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
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          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "the official electoral commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.17,
      "implied_probability": 0.17,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2.21,
      "volume_total_usd": 2119.2829,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "election",
        "plq",
        "quebec"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HS7FX72411",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-85749XJVP4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXQUEBECASSEMBLY-26OCT05-QS",
      "question": "Will QS win the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election?",
      "description": "QS",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "QS: The named political party's election victory resolves by Kalshi staff determination based on official results from Quebec's electoral authority, due October 12, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-05T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-12T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the QS wins the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins. If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No. If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements. Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified. For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements). If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met. For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.  \n\n\nThe market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction. In cases of competing claims (two presidents, disputed succession), the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails. The market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. Repeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline.  If results are annulled by a court/authority AFTER announcement but BEFORE the winner takes office, the Contract remains open until re-run election or expiration.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "the official electoral commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0.36,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "election",
        "qs",
        "quebec"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3P6GL264Y3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-85749XJVP4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXQUEBECASSEMBLY-26OCT05-PQ",
      "question": "Will PQ win the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election?",
      "description": "PQ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "PQ: The named political party's election victory resolves by Kalshi staff determination based on official results from Quebec's electoral authority, due October 12, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-05T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-12T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the PQ wins the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins. If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No. If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements. Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified. For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements). If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met. For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.  \n\n\nThe market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction. In cases of competing claims (two presidents, disputed succession), the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails. The market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. Repeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline.  If results are annulled by a court/authority AFTER announcement but BEFORE the winner takes office, the Contract remains open until re-run election or expiration.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
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        "source_of_record": "the official electoral commission",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.73,
      "implied_probability": 0.73,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 7580.3784,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "pq",
        "quebec"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PJRL538273",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-85749XJVP4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXQUEBECASSEMBLY-26OCT05-PCQ",
      "question": "Will PCQ win the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election?",
      "description": "PCQ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "PCQ: The named political party's election victory resolves by Kalshi staff determination based on official results from Quebec's electoral authority, due October 12, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-05T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-12T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the PCQ wins the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins. If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No. If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements. Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified. For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements). If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met. For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.  \n\n\nThe market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction. In cases of competing claims (two presidents, disputed succession), the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails. The market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. Repeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline.  If results are annulled by a court/authority AFTER announcement but BEFORE the winner takes office, the Contract remains open until re-run election or expiration.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
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            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
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          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1.24,
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      "tags": [
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-85749XJVP4",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}