{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-JK419R3RP7",
  "slug": "kxrainausm-26jun",
  "question": "Rainfall in Austin, June 2026",
  "category": "climate",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      4,
      5
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 1,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3,
        "prob": 95
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4,
        "prob": 77
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5,
        "prob": 40
      },
      {
        "threshold": 6,
        "prob": 19
      },
      {
        "threshold": 7,
        "prob": 9
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "climate",
    "weather-prediction",
    "precipitation",
    "austin-texas",
    "june-2026",
    "local-climate"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track total precipitation in Austin, Texas during June 2026. Kalshi structures the event as a ladder of seven discrete strike thresholds, from above 1 inch to above 7 inches, each resolving as a binary. The implied probability curve across strikes functions like a cumulative distribution for monthly rainfall. Kalshi staff determination uses National Weather Service precipitation data as the authoritative source.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-04LGXGRB89",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.4,
    "implied_probability": 0.4
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-R65QP4WCS3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JK419R3RP7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRAINAUSM-26JUN-1",
      "question": "Rain in Austin in Jun 2026?",
      "description": "Above 1 inch",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1 inch: National Weather Service precipitation data for the named location during the specified month, verified by Kalshi staff by July 16, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-16T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total precipitation at CLIAUS in Austin in Jun 2026 is strictly greater than 1 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nData for CLIAUS can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=ewx, navigating to the \"Observed Weather\" tab, and choosing the location \"Austin Bergstrom\" with Daily Climate Report selected. Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.\n\nNot all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above. Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances. Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Weather Service",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.weather.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Weather Service",
            "url": "https://www.weather.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NWS Climatological Report (Daily)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Weather Service",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1.98,
      "volume_total_usd": 21862.17,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "austin",
        "austin precipitation",
        "june",
        "precipitation",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7MJ4Q67GH0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JK419R3RP7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRAINAUSM-26JUN-2",
      "question": "Rain in Austin in Jun 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2 inches",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2 inches: National Weather Service precipitation data for the named location during the specified month, verified by Kalshi staff by July 16, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-16T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total precipitation at CLIAUS in Austin in Jun 2026 is strictly greater than 2 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nData for CLIAUS can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=ewx, navigating to the \"Observed Weather\" tab, and choosing the location \"Austin Bergstrom\" with Daily Climate Report selected. Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.\n\nNot all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above. Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances. Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Weather Service",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.weather.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Weather Service",
            "url": "https://www.weather.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NWS Climatological Report (Daily)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Weather Service",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1.98,
      "volume_total_usd": 5441.28,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "austin",
        "austin precipitation",
        "june",
        "precipitation",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VFDJK4WKD4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JK419R3RP7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRAINAUSM-26JUN-3",
      "question": "Rain in Austin in Jun 2026?",
      "description": "Above 3 inches",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3 inches: National Weather Service precipitation data for the named location during the specified month, verified by Kalshi staff by July 16, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-16T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total precipitation at CLIAUS in Austin in Jun 2026 is strictly greater than 3 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nData for CLIAUS can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=ewx, navigating to the \"Observed Weather\" tab, and choosing the location \"Austin Bergstrom\" with Daily Climate Report selected. Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.\n\nNot all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above. Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances. Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Weather Service",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.weather.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Weather Service",
            "url": "https://www.weather.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NWS Climatological Report (Daily)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Weather Service",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.95,
      "implied_probability": 0.95,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1637.39,
      "volume_total_usd": 10462.98,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "austin",
        "austin precipitation",
        "june",
        "precipitation",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MG4MLLGX04",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JK419R3RP7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRAINAUSM-26JUN-4",
      "question": "Rain in Austin in Jun 2026?",
      "description": "Above 4 inches",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4 inches: National Weather Service precipitation data for the named location during the specified month, verified by Kalshi staff by July 16, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-16T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total precipitation at CLIAUS in Austin in Jun 2026 is strictly greater than 4 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nData for CLIAUS can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=ewx, navigating to the \"Observed Weather\" tab, and choosing the location \"Austin Bergstrom\" with Daily Climate Report selected. Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.\n\nNot all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above. Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances. Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Weather Service",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.weather.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Weather Service",
            "url": "https://www.weather.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NWS Climatological Report (Daily)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Weather Service",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.77,
      "implied_probability": 0.77,
      "volume_24h_usd": 539.96,
      "volume_total_usd": 5412.02,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "austin",
        "austin precipitation",
        "june",
        "precipitation",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-04LGXGRB89",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JK419R3RP7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRAINAUSM-26JUN-5",
      "question": "Rain in Austin in Jun 2026?",
      "description": "Above 5 inches",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 5 inches: National Weather Service precipitation data for the named location during the specified month, verified by Kalshi staff by July 16, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-16T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total precipitation at CLIAUS in Austin in Jun 2026 is strictly greater than 5 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nData for CLIAUS can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=ewx, navigating to the \"Observed Weather\" tab, and choosing the location \"Austin Bergstrom\" with Daily Climate Report selected. Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.\n\nNot all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above. Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances. Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Weather Service",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.weather.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Weather Service",
            "url": "https://www.weather.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NWS Climatological Report (Daily)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Weather Service",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.4,
      "implied_probability": 0.4,
      "volume_24h_usd": 276.08,
      "volume_total_usd": 1860.88,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 5,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "austin",
        "austin precipitation",
        "june",
        "precipitation",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HCH7CN2719",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JK419R3RP7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRAINAUSM-26JUN-6",
      "question": "Rain in Austin in Jun 2026?",
      "description": "Above 6 inches",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 6 inches: National Weather Service precipitation data for the named location during the specified month, verified by Kalshi staff by July 16, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-16T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total precipitation at CLIAUS in Austin in Jun 2026 is strictly greater than 6 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nData for CLIAUS can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=ewx, navigating to the \"Observed Weather\" tab, and choosing the location \"Austin Bergstrom\" with Daily Climate Report selected. Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.\n\nNot all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above. Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances. Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Weather Service",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.weather.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Weather Service",
            "url": "https://www.weather.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NWS Climatological Report (Daily)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Weather Service",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.19,
      "implied_probability": 0.19,
      "volume_24h_usd": 20.33,
      "volume_total_usd": 871.21,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 6,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "austin",
        "austin precipitation",
        "june",
        "precipitation",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-N68VQ7ZX85",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JK419R3RP7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRAINAUSM-26JUN-7",
      "question": "Rain in Austin in Jun 2026?",
      "description": "Above 7 inches",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 7 inches: National Weather Service precipitation data for the named location during the specified month, verified by Kalshi staff by July 16, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-16T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total precipitation at CLIAUS in Austin in Jun 2026 is strictly greater than 7 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nData for CLIAUS can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=ewx, navigating to the \"Observed Weather\" tab, and choosing the location \"Austin Bergstrom\" with Daily Climate Report selected. Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.\n\nNot all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above. Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances. Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Weather Service",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.weather.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Weather Service",
            "url": "https://www.weather.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NWS Climatological Report (Daily)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Weather Service",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.09,
      "implied_probability": 0.09,
      "volume_24h_usd": 31.86,
      "volume_total_usd": 288.12,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 7,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "austin",
        "austin precipitation",
        "june",
        "precipitation",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-JK419R3RP7",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}