{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-DQGT6M0X84",
  "slug": "kxrainhoum-26jun",
  "question": "Rainfall in Houston, June 2026",
  "category": "climate",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      7,
      null
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 1,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4,
        "prob": 98
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5,
        "prob": 94
      },
      {
        "threshold": 6,
        "prob": 75
      },
      {
        "threshold": 7,
        "prob": 67
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "climate",
    "houston-weather",
    "june-2026",
    "precipitation",
    "us-texas",
    "short-term-forecast"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track cumulative precipitation in Houston during June 2026 across seven strike thresholds. Each contract is a binary asking whether monthly rainfall exceeds a specific inch level, from 1 inch through 7 inches. The structure prices rainfall magnitude via a threshold ladder, not a single directional outcome. The National Weather Service supplies the authoritative precipitation data; Kalshi staff determination governs resolution by July 16, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-XQ34YJJSW9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.67,
    "implied_probability": 0.67
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-99RBWX8NV0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DQGT6M0X84",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRAINHOUM-26JUN-1",
      "question": "Rain in Houston in Jun 2026?",
      "description": "Above 1 inch",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1 inch: National Weather Service monthly precipitation data for the named location resolves whether cumulative June 2026 rainfall met the specified threshold by July 16, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-16T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total precipitation at CLIHOU in Houston in Jun 2026 is strictly greater than 1 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nData for CLIHOU can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=hgx, navigating to the \"Observed Weather\" tab, and choosing the location \"Houston-Hobby, TX\" with Daily Climate Report selected. Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.\n\nNot all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above. Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances. Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Weather Service",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.weather.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Weather Service",
            "url": "https://www.weather.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NWS Climatological Report (Daily)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Weather Service",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 5098.5,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "houston",
        "houston rainfall",
        "june",
        "rainfall",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LQQRSZV050",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DQGT6M0X84",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRAINHOUM-26JUN-2",
      "question": "Rain in Houston in Jun 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2 inches",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2 inches: National Weather Service monthly precipitation data for the named location resolves whether cumulative June 2026 rainfall met the specified threshold by July 16, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-16T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total precipitation at CLIHOU in Houston in Jun 2026 is strictly greater than 2 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nData for CLIHOU can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=hgx, navigating to the \"Observed Weather\" tab, and choosing the location \"Houston-Hobby, TX\" with Daily Climate Report selected. Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.\n\nNot all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above. Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances. Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Weather Service",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.weather.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Weather Service",
            "url": "https://www.weather.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NWS Climatological Report (Daily)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Weather Service",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 5362.47,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "houston",
        "houston rainfall",
        "june",
        "rainfall",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3SBRMXCT47",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DQGT6M0X84",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRAINHOUM-26JUN-3",
      "question": "Rain in Houston in Jun 2026?",
      "description": "Above 3 inches",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3 inches: National Weather Service monthly precipitation data for the named location resolves whether cumulative June 2026 rainfall met the specified threshold by July 16, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-16T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total precipitation at CLIHOU in Houston in Jun 2026 is strictly greater than 3 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nData for CLIHOU can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=hgx, navigating to the \"Observed Weather\" tab, and choosing the location \"Houston-Hobby, TX\" with Daily Climate Report selected. Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.\n\nNot all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above. Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances. Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Weather Service",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.weather.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Weather Service",
            "url": "https://www.weather.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NWS Climatological Report (Daily)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Weather Service",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 14677.19,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "houston",
        "houston rainfall",
        "june",
        "rainfall",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YRV2C25RY0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DQGT6M0X84",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRAINHOUM-26JUN-4",
      "question": "Rain in Houston in Jun 2026?",
      "description": "Above 4 inches",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4 inches: National Weather Service monthly precipitation data for the named location resolves whether cumulative June 2026 rainfall met the specified threshold by July 16, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-16T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total precipitation at CLIHOU in Houston in Jun 2026 is strictly greater than 4 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nData for CLIHOU can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=hgx, navigating to the \"Observed Weather\" tab, and choosing the location \"Houston-Hobby, TX\" with Daily Climate Report selected. Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.\n\nNot all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above. Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances. Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Weather Service",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.weather.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Weather Service",
            "url": "https://www.weather.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NWS Climatological Report (Daily)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Weather Service",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "volume_24h_usd": 714.27,
      "volume_total_usd": 7336.16,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "houston",
        "houston rainfall",
        "june",
        "rainfall",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-77PX688B61",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DQGT6M0X84",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRAINHOUM-26JUN-5",
      "question": "Rain in Houston in Jun 2026?",
      "description": "Above 5 inches",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 5 inches: National Weather Service monthly precipitation data for the named location resolves whether cumulative June 2026 rainfall met the specified threshold by July 16, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-16T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total precipitation at CLIHOU in Houston in Jun 2026 is strictly greater than 5 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nData for CLIHOU can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=hgx, navigating to the \"Observed Weather\" tab, and choosing the location \"Houston-Hobby, TX\" with Daily Climate Report selected. Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.\n\nNot all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above. Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances. Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Weather Service",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.weather.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Weather Service",
            "url": "https://www.weather.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NWS Climatological Report (Daily)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Weather Service",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.94,
      "implied_probability": 0.94,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2267.45,
      "volume_total_usd": 7575.62,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 5,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "houston",
        "houston rainfall",
        "june",
        "rainfall",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7KNNP2K992",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DQGT6M0X84",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRAINHOUM-26JUN-6",
      "question": "Rain in Houston in Jun 2026?",
      "description": "Above 6 inches",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 6 inches: National Weather Service monthly precipitation data for the named location resolves whether cumulative June 2026 rainfall met the specified threshold by July 16, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-16T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total precipitation at CLIHOU in Houston in Jun 2026 is strictly greater than 6 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nData for CLIHOU can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=hgx, navigating to the \"Observed Weather\" tab, and choosing the location \"Houston-Hobby, TX\" with Daily Climate Report selected. Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.\n\nNot all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above. Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances. Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Weather Service",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.weather.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Weather Service",
            "url": "https://www.weather.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NWS Climatological Report (Daily)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Weather Service",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.75,
      "implied_probability": 0.75,
      "volume_24h_usd": 435.37,
      "volume_total_usd": 5484.39,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 6,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "houston",
        "houston rainfall",
        "june",
        "rainfall",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XQ34YJJSW9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DQGT6M0X84",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRAINHOUM-26JUN-7",
      "question": "Rain in Houston in Jun 2026?",
      "description": "Above 7 inches",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 7 inches: National Weather Service monthly precipitation data for the named location resolves whether cumulative June 2026 rainfall met the specified threshold by July 16, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-16T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total precipitation at CLIHOU in Houston in Jun 2026 is strictly greater than 7 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nData for CLIHOU can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=hgx, navigating to the \"Observed Weather\" tab, and choosing the location \"Houston-Hobby, TX\" with Daily Climate Report selected. Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.\n\nNot all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above. Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances. Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Weather Service",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.weather.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Weather Service",
            "url": "https://www.weather.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NWS Climatological Report (Daily)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Weather Service",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.67,
      "implied_probability": 0.67,
      "volume_24h_usd": 406.8,
      "volume_total_usd": 3716.8,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 7,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "houston",
        "houston rainfall",
        "june",
        "rainfall",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-DQGT6M0X84",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}