{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-RWL1X8FQZ0",
  "slug": "kxrainmiam-26jul",
  "question": "Rain in Miami in Jul 2026",
  "category": "climate",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      4,
      5
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 1,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3,
        "prob": 89
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4,
        "prob": 67
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5,
        "prob": 18
      },
      {
        "threshold": 6,
        "prob": 20
      },
      {
        "threshold": 7,
        "prob": 3
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "climate",
    "weather-prediction",
    "miami-florida",
    "precipitation",
    "july-2026",
    "tropical-climate"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track total July 2026 precipitation in Miami across seven discrete inch-threshold strikes. Kalshi structures the event as a cumulative exceedance ladder, pricing the probability that monthly rainfall surpasses each level from one to seven inches. All seven contracts resolve via Kalshi staff determination using National Weather Service monthly precipitation data for the Miami location. Resolution is expected by August 16, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-4HJ1PR2NJ8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.13,
    "implied_probability": 0.13
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-85G78YMS04",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RWL1X8FQZ0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRAINMIAM-26JUL-1",
      "question": "Rain in Miami in Jul 2026?",
      "description": "Above 1 inch",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1 inch: National Weather Service monthly precipitation data for the referenced location resolves the market by August 16, 2026, comparing recorded rainfall against the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-16T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total precipitation at CLIMIA in Miami in Jul 2026 is strictly greater than 1 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nData for CLIMIA can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mfl, navigating to the \"Observed Weather\" tab, and choosing the location \"Miami, FL\" with Daily Climate Report selected. Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.\n\nNot all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above. Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances. Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Weather Service",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.weather.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Weather Service",
            "url": "https://www.weather.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NWS Climatological Report (Daily)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Weather Service",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 98.01,
      "volume_total_usd": 2364.9813,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "july",
        "miami",
        "miami rainfall",
        "precipitation",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-38WC96CRR1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RWL1X8FQZ0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRAINMIAM-26JUL-2",
      "question": "Rain in Miami in Jul 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2 inches",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2 inches: National Weather Service monthly precipitation data for the referenced location resolves the market by August 16, 2026, comparing recorded rainfall against the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-16T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total precipitation at CLIMIA in Miami in Jul 2026 is strictly greater than 2 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nData for CLIMIA can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mfl, navigating to the \"Observed Weather\" tab, and choosing the location \"Miami, FL\" with Daily Climate Report selected. Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.\n\nNot all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above. Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances. Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Weather Service",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.weather.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Weather Service",
            "url": "https://www.weather.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NWS Climatological Report (Daily)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Weather Service",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 11007.750600000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "july",
        "miami",
        "miami rainfall",
        "precipitation",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MGX97BHW76",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RWL1X8FQZ0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRAINMIAM-26JUL-3",
      "question": "Rain in Miami in Jul 2026?",
      "description": "Above 3 inches",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3 inches: National Weather Service monthly precipitation data for the referenced location resolves the market by August 16, 2026, comparing recorded rainfall against the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-16T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total precipitation at CLIMIA in Miami in Jul 2026 is strictly greater than 3 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nData for CLIMIA can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mfl, navigating to the \"Observed Weather\" tab, and choosing the location \"Miami, FL\" with Daily Climate Report selected. Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.\n\nNot all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above. Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances. Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Weather Service",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.weather.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Weather Service",
            "url": "https://www.weather.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NWS Climatological Report (Daily)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Weather Service",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 5857.6023000000005,
      "volume_total_usd": 19862.835300000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "july",
        "miami",
        "miami rainfall",
        "precipitation",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RNQT2QTTV0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RWL1X8FQZ0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRAINMIAM-26JUL-4",
      "question": "Rain in Miami in Jul 2026?",
      "description": "Above 4 inches",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4 inches: National Weather Service monthly precipitation data for the referenced location resolves the market by August 16, 2026, comparing recorded rainfall against the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-16T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total precipitation at CLIMIA in Miami in Jul 2026 is strictly greater than 4 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nData for CLIMIA can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mfl, navigating to the \"Observed Weather\" tab, and choosing the location \"Miami, FL\" with Daily Climate Report selected. Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.\n\nNot all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above. Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances. Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Weather Service",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.weather.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Weather Service",
            "url": "https://www.weather.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NWS Climatological Report (Daily)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Weather Service",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.51,
      "implied_probability": 0.51,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1106.904,
      "volume_total_usd": 10959.813300000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "july",
        "miami",
        "miami rainfall",
        "precipitation",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4HJ1PR2NJ8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RWL1X8FQZ0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRAINMIAM-26JUL-5",
      "question": "Rain in Miami in Jul 2026?",
      "description": "Above 5 inches",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 5 inches: National Weather Service monthly precipitation data for the referenced location resolves the market by August 16, 2026, comparing recorded rainfall against the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-16T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total precipitation at CLIMIA in Miami in Jul 2026 is strictly greater than 5 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nData for CLIMIA can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mfl, navigating to the \"Observed Weather\" tab, and choosing the location \"Miami, FL\" with Daily Climate Report selected. Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.\n\nNot all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above. Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances. Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Weather Service",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.weather.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Weather Service",
            "url": "https://www.weather.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NWS Climatological Report (Daily)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Weather Service",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.13,
      "implied_probability": 0.13,
      "volume_24h_usd": 234.2535,
      "volume_total_usd": 2218.4629999999997,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 5,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "july",
        "miami",
        "miami rainfall",
        "precipitation",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YXRJCDJHZ0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RWL1X8FQZ0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRAINMIAM-26JUL-6",
      "question": "Rain in Miami in Jul 2026?",
      "description": "Above 6 inches",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 6 inches: National Weather Service monthly precipitation data for the referenced location resolves the market by August 16, 2026, comparing recorded rainfall against the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-16T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total precipitation at CLIMIA in Miami in Jul 2026 is strictly greater than 6 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nData for CLIMIA can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mfl, navigating to the \"Observed Weather\" tab, and choosing the location \"Miami, FL\" with Daily Climate Report selected. Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.\n\nNot all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above. Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances. Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Weather Service",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.weather.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Weather Service",
            "url": "https://www.weather.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NWS Climatological Report (Daily)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Weather Service",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.06,
      "implied_probability": 0.06,
      "volume_24h_usd": 38.9274,
      "volume_total_usd": 733.1370000000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 6,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "july",
        "miami",
        "miami rainfall",
        "precipitation",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8CBSY2YPW1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RWL1X8FQZ0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRAINMIAM-26JUL-7",
      "question": "Rain in Miami in Jul 2026?",
      "description": "Above 7 inches",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 7 inches: National Weather Service monthly precipitation data for the referenced location resolves the market by August 16, 2026, comparing recorded rainfall against the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-16T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total precipitation at CLIMIA in Miami in Jul 2026 is strictly greater than 7 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nData for CLIMIA can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mfl, navigating to the \"Observed Weather\" tab, and choosing the location \"Miami, FL\" with Daily Climate Report selected. Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.\n\nNot all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above. Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances. Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Weather Service",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.weather.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Weather Service",
            "url": "https://www.weather.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NWS Climatological Report (Daily)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Weather Service",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 39.4255,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 7,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "july",
        "miami",
        "miami rainfall",
        "precipitation",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-RWL1X8FQZ0",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}