{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-4P7H3Q2CX3",
  "slug": "kxrainmiam-26jun",
  "question": "Rainfall in Miami, June 2026",
  "category": "climate",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      5,
      6
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 1,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2,
        "prob": 98
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3,
        "prob": 92
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4,
        "prob": 80
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5,
        "prob": 59
      },
      {
        "threshold": 6,
        "prob": 49
      },
      {
        "threshold": 7,
        "prob": 20
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "climate",
    "miami-weather",
    "june-2026",
    "precipitation",
    "climate-event",
    "us-florida"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track cumulative precipitation in Miami during June 2026. Kalshi structures the event as a ladder of binary thresholds, from above 1 inch to above 7 inches, each resolving independently. This tiered structure lets traders express views on precipitation magnitude, not just occurrence. National Weather Service monthly data for Miami is the authoritative source; Kalshi staff determination applies the final resolution.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-WBL225QJN2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.49,
    "implied_probability": 0.49
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MHJY1SV3V9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4P7H3Q2CX3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRAINMIAM-26JUN-1",
      "question": "Rain in Miami in Jun 2026?",
      "description": "Above 1 inch",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1 inch: National Weather Service monthly precipitation data for the referenced location resolves whether cumulative rainfall exceeded the specified threshold during the event period, by July 16, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-16T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total precipitation at CLIMIA in Miami in Jun 2026 is strictly greater than 1 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nData for CLIMIA can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mfl, navigating to the \"Observed Weather\" tab, and choosing the location \"Miami, FL\" with Daily Climate Report selected. Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.\n\nNot all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above. Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances. Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Weather Service",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.weather.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Weather Service",
            "url": "https://www.weather.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NWS Climatological Report (Daily)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Weather Service",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 3.96,
      "volume_total_usd": 7577.46,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "miami",
        "miami june precipitation",
        "rainfall",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-75KWQYNTH7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4P7H3Q2CX3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRAINMIAM-26JUN-2",
      "question": "Rain in Miami in Jun 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2 inches",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2 inches: National Weather Service monthly precipitation data for the referenced location resolves whether cumulative rainfall exceeded the specified threshold during the event period, by July 16, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-16T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total precipitation at CLIMIA in Miami in Jun 2026 is strictly greater than 2 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nData for CLIMIA can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mfl, navigating to the \"Observed Weather\" tab, and choosing the location \"Miami, FL\" with Daily Climate Report selected. Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.\n\nNot all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above. Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances. Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Weather Service",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.weather.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Weather Service",
            "url": "https://www.weather.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NWS Climatological Report (Daily)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Weather Service",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "volume_24h_usd": 836.29,
      "volume_total_usd": 8472.29,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "miami",
        "miami june precipitation",
        "rainfall",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-H7KVX0PZS8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4P7H3Q2CX3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRAINMIAM-26JUN-3",
      "question": "Rain in Miami in Jun 2026?",
      "description": "Above 3 inches",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3 inches: National Weather Service monthly precipitation data for the referenced location resolves whether cumulative rainfall exceeded the specified threshold during the event period, by July 16, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-16T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total precipitation at CLIMIA in Miami in Jun 2026 is strictly greater than 3 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nData for CLIMIA can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mfl, navigating to the \"Observed Weather\" tab, and choosing the location \"Miami, FL\" with Daily Climate Report selected. Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.\n\nNot all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above. Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances. Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Weather Service",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.weather.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Weather Service",
            "url": "https://www.weather.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NWS Climatological Report (Daily)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Weather Service",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.92,
      "implied_probability": 0.92,
      "volume_24h_usd": 506.9,
      "volume_total_usd": 5710.35,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "miami",
        "miami june precipitation",
        "rainfall",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-82YQBG1C07",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4P7H3Q2CX3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRAINMIAM-26JUN-4",
      "question": "Rain in Miami in Jun 2026?",
      "description": "Above 4 inches",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4 inches: National Weather Service monthly precipitation data for the referenced location resolves whether cumulative rainfall exceeded the specified threshold during the event period, by July 16, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-16T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total precipitation at CLIMIA in Miami in Jun 2026 is strictly greater than 4 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nData for CLIMIA can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mfl, navigating to the \"Observed Weather\" tab, and choosing the location \"Miami, FL\" with Daily Climate Report selected. Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.\n\nNot all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above. Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances. Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Weather Service",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.weather.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Weather Service",
            "url": "https://www.weather.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NWS Climatological Report (Daily)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Weather Service",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.8,
      "implied_probability": 0.8,
      "volume_24h_usd": 22.17,
      "volume_total_usd": 2334.97,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "miami",
        "miami june precipitation",
        "rainfall",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-F9TP1RKDB1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4P7H3Q2CX3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRAINMIAM-26JUN-5",
      "question": "Rain in Miami in Jun 2026?",
      "description": "Above 5 inches",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 5 inches: National Weather Service monthly precipitation data for the referenced location resolves whether cumulative rainfall exceeded the specified threshold during the event period, by July 16, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-16T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total precipitation at CLIMIA in Miami in Jun 2026 is strictly greater than 5 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nData for CLIMIA can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mfl, navigating to the \"Observed Weather\" tab, and choosing the location \"Miami, FL\" with Daily Climate Report selected. Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.\n\nNot all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above. Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances. Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Weather Service",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.weather.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Weather Service",
            "url": "https://www.weather.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NWS Climatological Report (Daily)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Weather Service",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.59,
      "implied_probability": 0.59,
      "volume_24h_usd": 351.52,
      "volume_total_usd": 2433.81,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 5,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "miami",
        "miami june precipitation",
        "rainfall",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WBL225QJN2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4P7H3Q2CX3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRAINMIAM-26JUN-6",
      "question": "Rain in Miami in Jun 2026?",
      "description": "Above 6 inches",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 6 inches: National Weather Service monthly precipitation data for the referenced location resolves whether cumulative rainfall exceeded the specified threshold during the event period, by July 16, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-16T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total precipitation at CLIMIA in Miami in Jun 2026 is strictly greater than 6 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nData for CLIMIA can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mfl, navigating to the \"Observed Weather\" tab, and choosing the location \"Miami, FL\" with Daily Climate Report selected. Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.\n\nNot all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above. Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances. Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Weather Service",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.weather.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Weather Service",
            "url": "https://www.weather.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NWS Climatological Report (Daily)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Weather Service",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.49,
      "implied_probability": 0.49,
      "volume_24h_usd": 12.74,
      "volume_total_usd": 3310.68,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 6,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "miami",
        "miami june precipitation",
        "rainfall",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FHKJW0K410",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4P7H3Q2CX3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRAINMIAM-26JUN-7",
      "question": "Rain in Miami in Jun 2026?",
      "description": "Above 7 inches",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 7 inches: National Weather Service monthly precipitation data for the referenced location resolves whether cumulative rainfall exceeded the specified threshold during the event period, by July 16, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-16T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total precipitation at CLIMIA in Miami in Jun 2026 is strictly greater than 7 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nData for CLIMIA can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mfl, navigating to the \"Observed Weather\" tab, and choosing the location \"Miami, FL\" with Daily Climate Report selected. Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.\n\nNot all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above. Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances. Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Weather Service",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.weather.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Weather Service",
            "url": "https://www.weather.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NWS Climatological Report (Daily)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Weather Service",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.2,
      "implied_probability": 0.2,
      "volume_24h_usd": 52.78,
      "volume_total_usd": 1915.28,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 7,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "miami",
        "miami june precipitation",
        "rainfall",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-4P7H3Q2CX3",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}